Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Harry]

I'd say if there's going to be any risk at all, it'll be for something more significant than thundery showers.  Decent moisture and shear will see to that.  Though I'd hazard going into detail, tbh, given the discrepancies between all three main models.  ECM does break out storms generally from E Mids eastward.  Same with GFS. But the UKM has the risk even further east, and the concern is UKM models another eastward revision, and the others are likely to follow.

 

But as things as they are currently, still all to play for E/SE parts.  Be prepared, though, for the final eastward shift into the North Sea lol. 

 

I have to say the 06z GFS is pretty vile to be honest. Far more eastward shift than I was anticipating last night (I was expecting some but not that much). I'm sure MLCAPE is more impressive than SBCAPE currently shows, however optimism is rapidly fading. 

 

It's quite incredible how rapidly things have devolved just from the 18z output yesterday (although the 00z MLCAPE kindly posted by BF earlier is pleasing!!). Alas, it has been yo-yo-ing the past few days so could still push a bit further west. If the advancing Atlantic storm killing influence can hold off just for a few hours longer can currently envisaged by GFS, it will allow so much more potential to spread across England and Wales. 

 

But given the 2-3 day timeframe is approaching and it's currently looking pretty tragic, a sense of foreboding is rife.

 

Oh get a grip man!!     

Edited June 2, 2015 by Harry

[davehsug]

Hate saying it & I hoped to be wrong, but it looks like my post of 30th May, whilst all of the overhyping was going on,

"I'm sure our members on the South East coast will enjoy the light show from across the channel in Belgium & Holland.",

may prove to be right. Same year after year, as with cold spells in winter, if 1 in 20 come off anything like modelled, we're lucky.

[Sprites]

 Does any one know how to show the real-time stikes on blitzortung as a white X ?. 

I borrowed my nephews iphone and was impressed with the way it showed the strikes, as you could zoom in to the area of strike.

I cant seem to get the same display via my laptop, although you can zoom in it doesnt show individual strikes as an X.

Is this specific to the iphone ?

Hope your all enjoying the Almost kent-clipper set-up  .

 

Ok ive got the settings sorted out now 

 

if you run the GFS to 30000 hours there is another kent clipper,  i mean plume.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Sprites

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What's stopping people of they are storm starved hoping on a ferry across the channel and going out there its about £80 plus fuel car share your sorted..then again..

Edited June 2, 2015 by Surrey

[Nick L]

Hate saying it & I hoped to be wrong, but it looks like my post of 30th May, whilst all of the overhyping was going on,

"I'm sure our members on the South East coast will enjoy the light show from across the channel in Belgium & Holland.",

may prove to be right. Same year after year, as with cold spells in winter, if 1 in 20 come off anything like modelled, we're lucky.

 

It does always seem to be the case doesn't it? Unless a decent storm situation is shown within 48 hours I tend to ignore it.

[Convective]

What's stopping people of they are storm starved hoping on a ferry across the channel and going out there its about £80 plus fuel car share your sorted..then again..

 

The extra £350 to get off the island, then the risk of cancellation from easyJet or Flybe

I'd do it if I lived away though!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The extra £350 to get off the island, then the risk of cancellation from easyJet or Flybe

I'd do it if I lived away though!

 

Granted People past say Milton Keynes Maybe a tad further North it's not a world class Trip but for some it is worth doing to get the fix I rember being out in France in proper thunderstorms.. ahhhh

[A.J]

The way this plume is being shunted eastwards, I'm sure they'll enjoy it in the Urals...lol

[stainesbloke]

The SE still looks pretty good for storms on Fri....might not need to get a ferry or use the Tunnel lol....just come to London!

[Mokidugway]

As its getting shunted ever further eastward ,will it reappear in the west ??.

[Mapantz]

As its getting shunted ever further eastward ,will it reappear in the west ??.

 

Only if it has circumnavigated the Earth..

[Sprites]

Only if it has circumnavigated the Earth..

 

[Harry]

The way this plume is being shunted eastwards, I'm sure they'll enjoy it in the Urals...lol

 

LOL

 

Let's hope 12z delivers us all some good news

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if there is a westward shift, storms erupt up the central slice of England and across the Channel/N France, naturally, and I'm left wallowing in a humid but dry void between two areas of thundery activity like a pathetic jellyfish left splayed across a sludge ridden beach at low tide.

 

Alas - that's preferable to France/Benelux hogging the honours.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Harry

[Mapantz]

Is the GFS having problems today? No 12Z on any sites yet.. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Is the GFS having problems today? No 12Z on any sites yet.. 

The output comes out from 16:30

[Mapantz]

The output comes out from 16:30

 

I thought it was 3:30pm? Admittedly, i haven't actually been sat waiting for a run to come out, for quite some time. lol

[Dami]

What's stopping people of they are storm starved hoping on a ferry across the channel and going out there its about £80 plus fuel car share your sorted..then again..

you paying?

[Eskimo]

I thought it was 3:30pm? Admittedly, i haven't actually been sat waiting for a run to come out, for quite some time. lol

Remember the clocks go forward 

[Harry]

I'm going to be leaving for my train soon, but based on what GFS has churned out already (up to 06z Friday) the eastward shift slowly but surely continues

[NO LONGER POSTING]

you paying?

No need for me I have had my storm fix 4 times already this year I'm easily pleased...

Edited June 2, 2015 by Surrey

[IanR]

i would love to know a reason why there has been a dramatic reduction of thundery activity over the north west of england in the last few years,

 

although last year saw some places in the uk have a decent year,  the nw was not one of them,   

 just bad luck,  NO ,  its been going on for too long, there does not seem to be an explanation,

 

this year has been the worst so far in living memory, and if, up to july, does not give any thunder here its going to be a 12 month rolling period I have not head thunder , which would have seemed ridiculous last decade, but is now becoming a sombre reality   , 

 

the next marker to watch will be a 24 month rolling period  with out a single rumble  ,  unthinkable , but quite possible a reality in a few more years the way things are going ?  

[Mapantz]

Comparing the 00 and 12Z, As to be expected..

 

 

Edited June 2, 2015 by Mapantz

[Harry]

So, my parting shot before much later on tonight is that our plume event is rapidly retreating east.

 

There is a window of about 06z to 12z for SE England, which is the most rubbish time frame for storms IMO. By 18z there is a massive scope for storms from NW France through Benelux and beyond...but all off shore at this stage.

 

Unfortunately I do not have MLCAPE charts available, but it's looking increasingly dire...unless of course european models still indicate GFS has over-egged the eastward shift.

[stainesbloke]

So, my parting shot before much later on tonight is that our plume event is rapidly retreating east.

 

There is a window of about 06z to 12z for SE England, which is the most rubbish time frame for storms IMO. By 18z there is a massive scope for storms from NW France through Benelux and beyond...but all off shore at this stage.

 

Unfortunately I do not have MLCAPE charts available, but it's looking increasingly dire...unless of course european models still indicate GFS has over-egged the eastward shift.

Personally, I'm still encouraged by the fax charts, they are better IMHO than GFS in the shorter term. Still 3 days to go...if GFS carries on shifting stuff E then the only place seeing storms will be Poland.

[Thunderbolt_]

Well Friday's a done deal now, especially if you're as far north-west as I am. The South East of England may have a small opportunity for thunder on Friday morning, and may actually even see some of them across the Channel. Once again though, it looks like the plume has more desire to visit the Benelux countries again.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Thunderbolt_