Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Methuselah]

12Z looking nice. Plume appears to be wider and allows scope for more westerly coverage if it progresses north quicker. 

 

Even though the charts show a defined boundary between stable and unstable air masses, I refuse to take much notice. We've had scenarios like this where the boundary looks set in stone yet storms have broken out either side.

Indeed we have,C...We've also seen scenarios in which sod-all has happened anywhere...Which is why I've given up telling my grandchildren: it's going to thunder tomorrow. A hundred times bitten, 101 times shy?  

[shaky]

12z better and again a westward shift!!gona be pretty sultry come friday morning!!

[Stormyking]

I would take the 12z for early hours of friday Morning, strong cape and some very live precipitation in that,, still got a few runs left soo heres hoping!

[Supacell]

For lightning my interest is drawn to tomorrow night as the plume looks to move in from the south with some impressive MLCAPE and precipitation being shown to break out. I would expect this rain to be in the form of elevated thunderstorms with quite a lot of lightning, and at night time too. Possibly a good lightning photo opportunity for me... although it is still around 36 hours away taking from the 12z chart. 

 

For severe weather the far east is on a knife-edge as a slight shift east would ensure all the severe potential takes the usual France/Benelux route. However, a more westward track would bring more of the SE and EA into some quite interesting weather on Friday. Currently I would say east Norfolk/Suffolk would be the place to hang around on Friday afternoon... lets push it west a bit please

[Harry]

Another 24 hours of intense model gazing it is then before we look south for action (if any) to start firing to the south.

Let's keep fingers crossed for further westerly revision across the models - any easterly revisions will be catastrophic for most.

[Rain123]

Not sure if this has been said already, but the met office have a yellow warning for rain & frequent lightning on Friday over hampshire. 

[TropicThunder]

Would be great to see a nice light show on my way into work at 3am Friday morning!

[StormChaseUK]

I am currently just over the channel in St Malo, France. So will be keeping a close eye on things in the next 48 hours.

 

Estimated temp today was 19C, it ended up being 22-23C  so a good sign.

 

Will keep the board updated on developments over the next 48 hours.

 

Edited June 3, 2015 by StormChaseUK

[Thunderbolt_]

12Z looking nice. Plume appears to be wider and allows scope for more westerly coverage if it progresses north quicker. 

 

Even though the charts show a defined boundary between stable and unstable air masses, I refuse to take much notice. We've had scenarios like this where the boundary looks set in stone yet storms have broken out either side.

 

I think for the North West, the main window for any activity will be Thursday night and into the early hours of Friday morning. That's because the wind is much more southerly then, so we may be able to tap into any storms that happen to develop in the South and into the Midlands. By the time the westerly wind arrives, during mid-morning (after 09:00-10:00), we will pretty much be out of luck.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Mesoscale]

28 june...remember it well...I posted some picks of where I lived at the time (Penkridge, Staffs) with the village underwater...

 

edit...

 

I created a thread for storm footage from that event, for anyone interested (and there's some great footage from NetWeather members) have a gander at this...

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73703-midlands-nothern-england-thunderstormflooding-footage-2862012/

The footage of that man hole cover reminds me of this one from Minneapolis back in the 90's.

[Azazel]

Booooooo this plume sucks:p

 

Kidding, but seriously I was hoping for the main event to be friday night, not thursday night/friday morning when I'm either asleep or at work:(

 

ahhh well, fingers crossed for storms over on the continent next weekend when I venture over to France and Belgium

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Booooooo this plume sucks:p

 

Kidding, but seriously I was hoping for the main event to be friday night, not thursday night/friday morning when I'm either asleep or at work:(

 

ahhh well, fingers crossed for storms over on the continent next weekend when I venture over to France and Belgium

With the models as they are, if they are still like that tomorrow afternoon, then my Mrs who is staying over tomorrow night is goona hate me! #allnighter #weatherwiredo

[Harry]

If I remember correctly these storms formed from a similar sort of set up currently expected for Friday

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GtwvAnVpIS4

[Azazel]

With the models as they are, if they are still like that tomorrow afternoon, then my Mrs who is staying over tomorrow night is goona hate me! #allnighter #weatherwiredo

 

 

hahaha i feel you bro! I already pre-warned my girlfriend a few days back in the event of there being a storm. I put her on tripod-carrying duty. She really doesn't share my enthusiasm for weather:p

[Noahjoe]

If I remember correctly these storms formed from a similar sort of set up currently expected for Friday

When people mention past events it always makes me wonder if there is/should be somewhere where there are historical charts for comparison? If would actually be so useful

[shaky]

ecm same as gfs!!no real eastward movement from earlier runs but also no westward movement either!!i think anywhere from birmingham eastwards could get a good lightning show thursday night/friday morning based on current runs!!

[dave48]

If I remember correctly these storms formed from a similar sort of set up currently expected for Friday

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GtwvAnVpIS4

 

 

They were really good, happened to be down in Brighton at the time so a direct hit.

 

I remember it being quite frustrating because in that case the trough didn't do the business the day before as was forecast and everyone was getting pretty frustrated but finally the following day the CF cut through and then it all went mad in the SE.

[Thunderbolt_]

When people mention past events it always makes me wonder if there is/should be somewhere where there are historical charts for comparison? If would actually be so useful

 

Yes, wetterzentral.de have an archive going back to January 1871. A couple examples are:

 

28 June 2012: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120120628.gif

23 July 2013: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2013/Rrea00120130723.gif

 

The charts for 2014 haven't updated, so you can't see the June and July plumes from last year yet.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Dami]

I remember 28th june 2011, probably one of the best convective days i have seen up here, never seen clouds build and form quite as fast as they did, perfect day for storms, hot and humid. 

 

Although I didn't get a hit, MK did and i could happily watch the storm and lightning. Some times I think that's better, at least i didn't get wet and i had my thunder fix. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, wetterzentral.de have an archive going back to January 1871. A couple examples are:

 

28 June 2012: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120120628.gif

23 July 2013: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2013/Rrea00120130723.gif

 

The charts for 2014 haven't updated, so you can't see the June and July plumes from last year yet.

 

I remember 28th June one, was Wimbledon, the storm arrived here around 8am, was a good one as well

[dave48]

I remember 28th June one, was Wimbledon, the storm arrived here around 8am, was a good one as well

 

Yes I remember watching live and a few of the players got a fright from a strike directly overhead!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes I remember watching live and a few of the players got a fright from a strike directly overhead!

 

yes lisicki, most famous one

[Harry]

12z EURO4 has main push of low-level moisture clearing east by around early afternoon period Fri (as does GFS), so timing and possible mess from early (elevated) storms could inhibit surface based risk and potential for (sfc based) severe convective weather.

 

15060506_0312.gif15060509_0312.gif

 

Having said that, given rich moisture at low-levels, steep mid-level lapse rates, overlapped by strong divergent jet winds aloft, generating strong deep layer shear, MCS storm mode/multicell cluster/line segment seems favoured regime, with moderate-size hail, frequent lightning and strong convective downdrafts all probable should outputs verify.  Re. shear, mid-level winds do veer somewhat between 850 and 500mb, with some curvature to select hodographs in the SE region, though not so markedly as to be too concerned.

Looks a bit like a slight eastward shunt to me on that Euro4 model, W09, with convection possibly being limited to the eastern areas.

Looking less and less likely for a westward push, although obviously not impossible.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

My gf reckons I'm having an affair and using storm-chasing as a cover! Well, I'm sure she actually thinks my geeky behaviour around storms makes any affair very unlikely.

Still I always warn her I'll be chasing days before any potential event so I know on the day (or night) in question I can jump in the van and get out there at the drop of a hat the moment it kicks off - and that way she's not expecting me back til late and it's stormy fun right until the last bang!

[Dami]

My gf reckons I'm having an affair and using storm-chasing as a cover! Well, I'm sure she actually thinks my geeky behaviour around storms makes any affair very unlikely.

Still I always warn her I'll be chasing days before any potential event so I know on the day (or night) in question I can jump in the van and get out there at the drop of a hat the moment it kicks off - and that way she's not expecting me back til late and it's stormy fun right until the last bang!

take her with you.