Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Chris K]

Nice to see another shift west. But is the run an outlier at all or does that factor minimise at close time frames?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Chris Fawkes on the BBC really emphasising the storm potential acorss Southeastern England but also gives a mention of the band of storms moving across CS England during the night. And even before everything he mentioned the storms have already began forming in North Spain so something to watch build now!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Chris Fawkes on the BBC really emphasising the storm potential acorss Southeastern England but also gives a mention of the band of storms moving across CS England during the night. And even before everything he mentioned the storms have already began forming in North Spain so something to watch build now!

Another westward shift even by just 50-100 miles would make a huge huge difference. This is how fine the adjustments really are or would need to be. But the same rule applies the other way, so much as a 100 mile shift East could spell game over!! Only here could such a tense setup occur.

[Mesoscale]

Does anyone know the highest cape values to verify in the UK? I am seeing -9Li's  on those cape charts and that seem extraordinarily high for the UK?

[A.J]

the 18z NMM hi-res is out, and I will say this.....RAMP!

 

An improvement on the already decent 12z output, with a westwards correction of the WAA.......elevated thunderstorms progged to break out very early hour of friday morning in the west country and central southern england with very unstable air in the mid-levels, these storms will progress NEastwards and regenerate as the plume continues to destabilize.....If cloud clears over the south east, then surface based storms will erupt during the late morning/early afternoon in a very conducive atmosphere for strong storms IMO.....surface energy off the charts, as the NMM models over 3000j/kg of CAPE (as well as 2000j/kg mixed layer CAPE) with some of the highest buoyancy values (lifted index) that I've ever seen in the UK........if cloud persists, it could be disappointing, but if lengthy cloud breaks emerge mid-late morning in the SE quarter, then some remarkable weather could be in the offing!

[alexisj9]

the 18z NMM hi-res is out, and I will say this.....RAMP!

 

An improvement on the already decent 12z output, with a westwards correction of the WAA.......elevated thunderstorms progged to break out very early hour of friday morning in the west country and central southern england with very unstable air in the mid-levels, these storms will progress NEastwards and regenerate as the plume continues to destabilize.....If cloud clears over the south east, then surface based storms will erupt during the late morning/early afternoon in a very conducive atmosphere for strong storms IMO.....surface energy off the charts, as the NMM models over 3000j/kg of CAPE (as well as 2000j/kg mixed layer CAPE) with some of the highest buoyancy values (lifted index) that I've ever seen in the UK........if cloud persists, it could be disappointing, but if lengthy cloud breaks emerge mid-late morning in the SE quarter, then some remarkable weather could be in the offing!

Sounds a bit too interesting.

[Mapantz]

Yep - I've just had a peep and just like Aj, definitely worth a ramp!

 

It looks menacing for the home counties/parts of east Midlands Friday afternoon, as it stands now of course.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Anybody know where to view NMM charts? 

[Mapantz]

This is just a snippet of the MLCAPE from the 3KM NMM..

 

4am and 2pm - the 2pm shows in excess of 3000j/kg over East Anglia..

 

 

@East_England_Stormchaser91

 

The free one:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

Edited June 4, 2015 by Mapantz

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This is just a snippet of the MLCAPE from the 3KM NMM..

 

4am and 2pm - the 2pm shows in excess of 3000j/kg over East Anglia..

 

4amMLCAPE.png2pmMLCAPE.png

 

@East_England_Stormchaser91

 

The free one:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

Cheers buddy. 

 

Jesus wept, things are getting real interesting now. Could this be a repeat of June 28th 2012 but a bit further South and East? Certainly looks to be that way judging by that output by the NMM!!

Finding it hard not to get too excited at the moment

[Weather-history]

Some altocumulus castellanus passing, not intense looking though.

[Supacell]

GFS has a bit of an eastward shift this morning in comparison to last nights 18z but its not by a lot. Still the SE third of England looking good for some storm activity from around midnight tonight onwards. Peak period looks to be around mid morning to mid afternoon. I am awaiting the NMM update.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very slight eastward shift not major and a slight tone down in conditions, fear not event is now well within the 24hr period now with storms still modeled to break out around midnight night and push north north east..

Timing is key, to late in the morning and it could spoil the party later on in the day if anything wants to get going around midday which is also being modeld in the south East.

One thing I'm looking forward to is watching the convective sky's later this evening as the instability moves in

Goodluck everybody may the model runs bring it a bit more westward and build in conditions even better haha!!

[Raidan]

Don't know what to do, do I take tomorrow off so I can do an all nighter tonight or go to bed as normal and go to work because nothing may happen, decisions decisions.

[Supacell]

Don't know what to do, do I take tomorrow off so I can do an all nighter tonight or go to bed as normal and go to work because nothing may happen, decisions decisions.

 

I know what I am doing.... day off already booked for tomorrow. It is our best chance for those proper continental type storms since last July so I would be more gutted to be stuck at work whilst it is all crashing off outside than if it was to come to nothing and I end up with a day off to relax in a pub garden 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sitting in the sun as I type in my back garden and my my what a change from the start of the week.

[Raidan]

I see your point Supacell but I'm looking at it like if I take tomorrow off and nothing happens I loose a days wage wish there was more confidence of something happening here to make the decision easier.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I see your point Supacell but I'm looking at it like if I take tomorrow off and nothing happens I loose a days wage wish there was more confidence of something happening here to make the decision easier.

Don't let a hobby mean you loose money, money is more important than watching a few storms well it depends on your financial status I guess

[Harps]

If there's one thing I've learned from these setups over the past few years it's that they never play out as forecast, once/if things kick off then the outcome will likely be different to what the models show one way or the other so I wouldn't bother looking at the fine detail too much. Some people will inevitability be disappointed while others will hopefully get a nice surprise.

If last year's experiences are anything to go by then cloud may spoil the party once the initial band of storms move through but I'm keeping my hopes up for now

[Captain Shortwave]

Out of the hi-res models, the NMM certainly looks the best, pretty oppressive considering temperatures of 28C and a dew point of 21/22C. There seems to be two pulses of precipitation here, one which moves north east during the morning and then some very intense precipitation during the mid/late afternoon. The NMM sees the first moving up the Bristol channel and then moves north east clearing the Lincolnshire coast before lunch, the second develops from mid afternoon onwards with the NMM showing some torrential downpours, mainly across East Anglia (thunder likely).

The Euro4 however seems to want to shunt things eastwards very quickly, the first band moves north east from Hampshire up through the western half of East Anglia with the second band missing western Belgium/Holland, let alone reaching the south east of England. Temperatures look disappointing at 23C.

 

So divergence as usual with the Euro4 typically being pessimistic about the conditions we will see tomorrow.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Supacell]

I see your point Supacell but I'm looking at it like if I take tomorrow off and nothing happens I loose a days wage wish there was more confidence of something happening here to make the decision easier.

 

Yes, that is a good point. I suppose taking a day off sick is different to a days paid holiday.

 

Looking at the NMM it looks very tasty for overnight elevated storms that now look to actually affect my area by around 5-7am and then some intense thunderstorms across EA and the SE for the afternoon hours. However, Euro 4 makes nothing of tomorrows storms with everything east of the UK. It does bring some precipitation through during the early hours though but it is a blink and you miss it.

 

GFS is similar to the NMM. BBC/Met Office still going for storms tomorrow but they don't show much overnight until around this time tomorrow when it explodes over..... Lincolnshire. I guess we have a few more runs to get through yet and in 24 hours we will all know how the overnight storms panned out and this will help with forecasting tomorrows storms in the east.

[Harry]

Well said Harp!

Proper plumes usually deliver and are highly unpredictable - in my experience too storms can explode rapidly even to the extent radar watching only helps so far

Just walking to station and lovely and warm now - can't wait to experience this time tomorrow morning

[Stormyking]

Im loving the look of it for these parts from midnight to around 6am, seems that 3am will be the time if we are to see anything. my everything is crossed includng my ears

[shaky]

good news is nmm still looks tasty!!!euro4 looks better than it did this time yesterday!!think its in catch up mode with the n mm model!!I'm still going for the most potent storms to be east midlands,east anglia and south east england!!to be fair its all about looking at sat24 now;) and forget about the models!!

edit:actually things look slightly west already with clouds forming western France/spain!!dont see it missing us peeps!!

Edited June 4, 2015 by shaky

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Im no cloud expert.. But given that its not even 9 o clock yet I do believe this type is a good sign 

 

Edited June 4, 2015 by Surrey