Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[A.J]

Indeed...I wouldn't mind a thundery thrashing AM and PM

lol....sounds suspiciously like storm porn terminology to me...

[Harry]

Is that like meteorological S&M?

 

Similar, but with electric shock stimuli as opposed to leather!

 

[Eskimo]

OOOH MATRON! 

 

[Supacell]

Morning storms can still be violent affairs. The 28th June 2012 brought hail the size of golf balls to Hinckley in Leicestershire at around 11-12am. Last year I saw lightning take out power in Stafford at 8am on 7th June. 3am is normally a prime time for spectacular elevated lightning displays in my experience. I don't think time of day will matter too much.

[Summer Sun]

Early met office warning

 

Issued at: 1215 on Wed 3 Jun 2015

Valid from: 0600 on Fri 5 Jun 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Fri 5 Jun 2015

 

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to extend northwards across eastern and southeastern areas of England during Friday giving some localised intense downpours. The public should be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding which may lead to disruption to transport and outdoor activities. Frequent lightning could prove to be an additional hazard. The thunderstorms should clear away eastwards on Friday night. As is typical of this type of situation there is considerable uncertainty as regards the extent and timing of any thunderstorms, with some places within the warning area probably escaping the downpours. Therefore this warning will be kept under review and updated as necessary.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A plume of very warm air is expected to move northwards from France early on Friday to affect southeastern parts of Britain. This is likely to provide a focus for locally intense thundery downpours which could readily give 15 mm of rain in less than an hour and perhaps as much as 25 mm, with 30-50 mm possibly falling within 3 hours.

 

Areas under the warning

 

East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston upon Hull, North East Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire

 

Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Rutland

 

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk, Thurrock

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1433458800&regionName=se

[Nick L]

Morning storms can still be violent affairs. The 28th June 2012 brought hail the size of golf balls to Hinckley in Leicestershire at around 11-12am. Last year I saw lightning take out power in Stafford at 8am on 7th June. 3am is normally a prime time for spectacular elevated lightning displays in my experience. I don't think time of day will matter too much.

 

I remember that day with despair. Was living in Cannock, but at that moment I was sitting on the platform at Reading station terribly hungover, seeing all the excited posts about a beasty storm back home...

 

I've had my storm fill over the last couple of weeks in the US, but wouldn't complain at a few flashes and bangs this Friday! I'll be driving up to Newcastle that day so might be interesting...

[Thunderbolt_]

Morning storms can still be violent affairs. The 28th June 2012 brought hail the size of golf balls to Hinckley in Leicestershire at around 11-12am. Last year I saw lightning take out power in Stafford at 8am on 7th June. 3am is normally a prime time for spectacular elevated lightning displays in my experience. I don't think time of day will matter too much.

 

Most of my best thunderstorms have occurred in the early morning. The storm on 23 July 2013 hit Manchester at around 06:00 and it was a right powerful one. The 19 July 2014 storm (my favourite ever) started at around 02:30 and went on till about 05:00.

 

Morning thunderstorms can be the very best. Waking up to thunder and lightning...

Edited June 3, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Harry]

I've started something now.....lol

[Supacell]

I've started something now.....lol

Haha. Yes you have. I have many childhood memories of waking up to big storms during the early hours and around dawn. I doubt Derby will see anything out of this one but I am willing to travel.

[Dami]

Bedford will get nil points as well so your not alone.

[Andy Pepler]

the glastonbury 2005 storm ..sat in a 3man tent with carbon fiber poles one a high spot of the site behind the dance vilage with lightning zipping overhead at low levels and thunder louder than fat boy slim ...we watched that cell form over n france (kinda hacked the site wifi) and dead on midnight lightning was seen ...then all hell let lose ...

 

 

... does el nino effect storm strength in the uk ???

[A.J]

Morning storms can still be violent affairs. The 28th June 2012 brought hail the size of golf balls to Hinckley in Leicestershire at around 11-12am. Last year I saw lightning take out power in Stafford at 8am on 7th June. 3am is normally a prime time for spectacular elevated lightning displays in my experience. I don't think time of day will matter too much.

28 june...remember it well...I posted some picks of where I lived at the time (Penkridge, Staffs) with the village underwater...

 

edit...

 

I created a thread for storm footage from that event, for anyone interested (and there's some great footage from NetWeather members) have a gander at this...

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73703-midlands-nothern-england-thunderstormflooding-footage-2862012/

[Mapantz]

28 june...remember it well...I posted some picks of where I lived at the time (Penkridge, Staffs) with the village underwater...

 

edit...

 

I created a thread for storm footage from that event, for anyone interested (and there's some great footage from NetWeather members) have a gander at this...

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73703-midlands-nothern-england-thunderstormflooding-footage-2862012/

 

I can't believe that was 2012! I remember being on Twitter, watching all of those photo's and vid's coming in..

I wish i had footage of what occurred here on june 5th 1983. It was on par with that of Hinckley, golf ball sized hail wrecked everything!

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hadn't actually realised how the GFS 06z ramped up the PPN over a large swathe of the UK

 

Sit tight 12z rolling out soonish.. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit:

 

Talk about convergence zones to..

Edited June 3, 2015 by Surrey

[Stormyking]

Definatly some Interest in Tomorrow night and early Friday Morning for some possible Elevated storms/showers, areas does seem to be anywhere East of Bournemouth, and that stuff further North too. Think these will actually develop over the Channel anyway, fingers crossed!

[Harry]

Definatly some Interest in Tomorrow night and early Friday Morning for some possible Elevated storms/showers, areas does seem to be anywhere East of Bournemouth, and that stuff further North too. Think these will actually develop over the Channel anyway, fingers crossed!

 

The last notable storms I recall firing over the channel were those on 6th August 2008...they were beasts

[Andy Bown]

I just hope people don't get frustrated and give up if nothing is showing on the radar and detectors as the plume approaches. As AJ will say too, last year on 17th July late evening and again on 17th September storms erupted as the plumes began to come to our side of the Channel and then inland.

[Spikecollie]

SB and MU CAPE values of 2050 and LI of -7 with 29c in my part of France for tomorrow evening according to Meteociel.

[A.J]

I just hope people don't get frustrated and give up if nothing is showing on the radar and detectors as the plume approaches. As AJ will say too, last year on 17th July late evening and again on 17th September storms erupted as the plumes began to come to our side of the Channel and then inland.

yep...a thumbs up from me, good post Andy

[Stormyking]

The last notable storms I recall firing over the channel were those on 6th August 2008...they were beasts

Last 2 years were also very good years for these parts, though unfortunately i was in Guernsey last year when the island was getting battered, though i did have some good ones down there.

2013 A few occasions I remember, especially one June Morning when the channel decided to explode Elevated storms all Morning, ahhh I want those back

[Harry]

I just hope people don't get frustrated and give up if nothing is showing on the radar and detectors as the plume approaches. As AJ will say too, last year on 17th July late evening and again on 17th September storms erupted as the plumes began to come to our side of the Channel and then inland.

Hear hear!!

Remember 17th July last year very well and iirc around 23rd July the previous year, went to bed feeling a bit doom and gloom (between 11pm and midnight) without so much as a gnat's boob showing on radar for my locale. Within the hour storms exploded and put on a hell of a show

12z GFS due imminently...fingers cross for a westward shunt :-)

[Mapantz]

The GFS is actually looking much better already..

Edited June 3, 2015 by Mapantz

[Wilxy]

12z a carbon copy of 06z but with PPN developing further west and looking like the Dorset- Isle of Wight area a good spot to watch them come over the channel!

[Captain Shortwave]

The big event still seems to only glance us at best Friday evening. That said from late Thursday and through daytime Friday then there is a good chance of a few thundery downpours either from imports or home grown.

We really need the heat to hang on in the east Friday night which has only really been shown on the ECM suite.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Convective]

12Z looking nice. Plume appears to be wider and allows scope for more westerly coverage if it progresses north quicker. 

 

Even though the charts show a defined boundary between stable and unstable air masses, I refuse to take much notice. We've had scenarios like this where the boundary looks set in stone yet storms have broken out either side.