Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Chris.R]

i would love to know a reason why there has been a dramatic reduction of thundery activity over the north west of england in the last few years,

 

although last year saw some places in the uk have a decent year,  the nw was not one of them,   

 just bad luck,  NO ,  its been going on for too long, there does not seem to be an explanation,

 

this year has been the worst so far in living memory, and if, up to july, does not give any thunder here its going to be a 12 month rolling period I have not head thunder , which would have seemed ridiculous last decade, but is now becoming a sombre reality   , 

 

the next marker to watch will be a 24 month rolling period  with out a single rumble  ,  unthinkable , but quite possible a reality in a few more years the way things are going ?

strangely, last year was the most successful year for thunder I've had for around 10 years, with 13 days with thunder heard. May 13, May 19, May 20, June 7, June 8, June 10, July 18, July 19, August 2, August 4, August 10, October 8, and December 8. Think you've been very unlucky not to have had much thunder last year, And it just goes to show the remarkable differences with relatively small distances around here. I'm positive that things will improve, Although this year has been terrible so far.

[IanR]

strangely, last year was the most successful year for thunder I've had for around 10 years, with 13 days with thunder heard. May 13, May 19, May 20, June 7, June 8, June 10, July 18, July 19, August 2, August 4, August 10, October 8, and December 8. Think you've been very unlucky not to have had much thunder last year, And it just goes to show the remarkable differences with relatively small distances around here. I'm positive that things will improve, Although this year has been terrible so far.

i heard thunder on only 2 occasions last year,  a daytime storm in may,  and one at night in july, and thats it , nothing since,   maybe the higher sea temps last years helped in coastal locations? 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

May consider getting a ferry across to Belgium on Friday.

[Chris K]

I'd say if there's going to be any risk at all, it'll be for something more significant than thundery showers.  Decent moisture and shear will see to that.  Though I'd hazard going into detail, tbh, given the discrepancies between all three main models.  ECM does break out storms generally from E Mids eastward.  Same with GFS. But the UKM has the risk even further east, and the concern is UKM models another eastward revision, and the others are likely to follow.

 

But as things as they are currently, still all to play for E/SE parts.  Be prepared, though, for the final eastward shift into the North Sea lol.

I'm never believing any storm charts again until I see you in here ramping.

[sunnijim]

Can anyone answer this simple question? Why,year in year out do we see models correcting thundery developments/plumes Eastward as 'D day' approaches? It's certainly not a figment of the imagination that both major models 'correct East'

I'm struggling to think of any 'storm risk' in the week ahead timeframe being corrected West, ( say from Belgium as the sweet spot to Brighton! )

Edited June 2, 2015 by sunnijim

[stainesbloke]

Can anyone answer this simple question? Why,year in year out do we see models correcting thundery developments/plumes Eastward as 'D day' approaches? It's certainly not a figment of the imagination that both major models 'correct East'

I'm struggling to think of any 'storm risk' in the week ahead timeframe being corrected West, ( say from Belgium as the sweet spot to Brighton! )

Interesting question, deserves its own thread! Has been a recent development of the past decade or so.

I'd also like to know why, as well as a massive reduction in plume events and storms over the aforementioned period, it has become normal for deep low pressure systems to steam over the Atlantic at a billion knots, then screech to an emergency stop once in British waters that'd make any driving instructor proud. Then just sit there for days, battering the UK, often actually deepening in situ! Once they decide to move away from us they instantly fill. 'Back in the old days' it was only flabby lows that would hang around from memory?

Edited June 2, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Chris K]

Can anyone answer this simple question? Why,year in year out do we see models correcting thundery developments/plumes Eastward as 'D day' approaches? It's certainly not a figment of the imagination that both major models 'correct East'

I'm struggling to think of any 'storm risk' in the week ahead timeframe being corrected West, ( say from Belgium as the sweet spot to Brighton! )

Well I believe the UKMO model did not really support any notable plume of heat and storms compared to GFS. But generally I find it is a case of the models underestimating the power of the jet coming out of the US. More so if a Low pressure system is forecast to move through from the west.

With regards to it seeming more common in recent years...well I think we have seen more stronger, southerly tracking jets during recent summers?

Still...we got 3 months of summer left yet

Edited June 2, 2015 by Chris K

[Harry]

 lol. 

 

Not over yet though.  ECM 12z has just arrived, and it's pulled things back. Again, slower than the GFS, with moisture 'plume' affecting greater portion of the country.  UKM holding firm with previous outputs.

 

Still a while to go, and wouldn't get too comfortable until this is down to well within T+24.  But E/SE still in the game.  

 

Edit: Had a look at all three side by side, and there's actually little difference between UKM/GFS.  Fax output pretty much same as their global model.

 

fax_fri_12z.gif

 

In light of latest ECM output, could move that trough back west a little, with greater spread of low-level moisture. And this placed under a left-exit mid-upper level jet streak...

 

Interesting times.

Awesome, thanks W09.

Bought my camcorder this evening, fingers crossed it gets to see some action Friday

Will anxiously await the GFS 18z output to see if there is a shift back west. The perfect scenario would be a decent shift west to allow widespread thunderstorms across England and hopefully Wales, trundling east to allow some nice evening light shows as it all clears East...one can wish at least

[shaky]

ecm has everything much further west!!+10 850hpa temps covering most of england and wales!!going down the wire this is!!

[Tom Jarvis]

Any tips of filming thunderstorms with a go pro hero 4?? Hoping there will be some night time storms here

[matty40s]

Any tips of filming thunderstorms with a go pro hero 4?? Hoping there will be some night time storms here

stay awake,

[Chris K]

 lol. 

 

Not over yet though.  ECM 12z has just arrived, and it's pulled things back. Again, slower than the GFS, with moisture 'plume' affecting greater portion of the country.  UKM holding firm with previous outputs.

 

Still a while to go, and wouldn't get too comfortable until this is down to well within T+24.  But E/SE still in the game.  

 

Edit: Had a look at all three side by side, and there's actually little difference between UKM/GFS.  Fax output pretty much same as their global model.

 

fax_fri_12z.gif

 

In light of latest ECM output, could move that trough back west a little, with greater spread of low-level moisture. And this placed under a left-exit mid-upper level jet streak...

 

Interesting times.

 

I assume the speed of that cold front could be quite the decider in this sort of setup?

 

Edit: Ah actually I guess the main storm risk is from the surface trough ahead of it.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Chris K

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

stay awake,

My technique is always to find the 'sweet spot' of your field of view - bearing in mind this will invariably move about but usually in UK storms you get about 5-10 decent bolts before it shifts.

I use my SLR for long exposure and slow-shutter shots while keeping my slo-mo (reasonable reso but only 5 secs max) for getting the actual footage of the forks.

Obviously you want forks cos the sheet lightning doesn't make for the most thrilling videos but if it's regular enough it can look cool and exciting to re-watch when future plumes go bad and you want to re-live former glories!

Worth noting too that the tail-end of storms which pass nearby or overhead are often the most remarkable fork-wise as you have a wider and less obstructed field of view as more of the storm cloud tends to be visible - but this means you have to be able to turn 180 degrees which I can't do out my spare-room window :-(

I know some of this might be common knowledge or someone might disagree with some of my points but videoing and photographing storms is a very subjecting thing as everyone has different storm experiences and no two storms are alike!

[Mapantz]

Just a small tip from me, if you don't have a decent camera with manual controls..

 

I'm sure there are many iPhone users on here?! There's a couple of apps in the store that open the iPhone's manual controls up, specifically for long exposure shots.

Some of the lightning shots i've seen from it, are up there with £300 dedicated camera's - worth checking out.

[Harry]

GFS 18z rolling out...fingers crossed!!!

Edit - John Hammond really ramping up the thunderstorm risk for Friday however very clear that it could be further west, or, could be further east. Mentioned possible warnings too.

Most noticeable was the charts seeming to show a more westerly extent of the heat, certainly compared to earlier GFS runs

GFS update - not great. Clearly a westerly shunt on the latest run but keen to reduce the instability for the UK which I struggle to understand. First impression is 18z GFS is a bit weird...wants the plume to reach us then totally reorientate (as if specifically to keep the action away!)

Edited June 2, 2015 by Harry

[stainesbloke]

GFS 18z rolling out...fingers crossed!!!

Edit - John Hammond really ramping up the thunderstorm risk for Friday however very clear that it could be further west, or, could be further east. Mentioned possible warnings too.

Most noticeable was the charts seeming to show a more westerly extent of the heat, certainly compared to earlier GFS runs

GFS update - not great. Clearly a westerly shunt on the latest run but keen to reduce the instability for the UK which I struggle to understand. First impression is 18z GFS is a bit weird...wants the plume to reach us then totally reorientate (as if specifically to keep the action away!)

GFS has shunted things a bit westwards on this run, that's a positive...finer details yet to be resolved. Could all go pants or we could be lucky. At least a greater chance of heat for Fri....for that alone I'll be grateful.

[Harry]

Am going to go to bed and hope for a pleasant surprise in the morning...hope more than expectation!

[Buckster]

before dawn Friday now of interest ?

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM again looks like the best solution with the 12C isotherm hanging on into Saturday morning, this could send quite a train of storms up from the Bay of Biscay into the south eastern third of the UK, on the other hand the UKMO is the flattest and probably sends everything into Belgium. The GFS offers a window during the late afternoon/early evening when something could kick off before the cold front clears through by midnight.

So it is all still up in the air to be honest.

[Harry]

Yup! Still a complete mystery.

00z GFS certainly the best of the last four of its runs, with now the suggestion of storms across southern England during the overnight period of Thursday into Friday. What it also suggests is the heat clinging on a bit longer, although yet another shunt west would be better, on two grounds; first, far more people get some enjoyment and second, the storms likely to be experienced currently aren't quite generated during the peak heating of the day.

Still, 48 hours to go so still very much can change (either for the better or for the worse)

Potentially very erroneous observation - my iPhone app is now saying 27C with thunderstorm logo for Friday (currently going through Sidcup on the train). That's the highest temperature it has shown this week

Edited June 3, 2015 by Harry

[NO LONGER POSTING]

High res just coming into play now

Have to say overnight runs have improved bringing more than just the south East into play

[Supacell]

I think a trip to the south coast on Thurs night may be in order, some decent MLCAPE pushes up across the channel on the latest runs.

[stainesbloke]

Still some decent possibilities for the SE from this mornings charts! Fax looks like could now be Thu night that brings something interesting...

[Harry]

Still some decent possibilities for the SE from this mornings charts! Fax looks like could now be Thu night that brings something interesting...

 

Indeed, this morning's FAX does extend the plume further west too (judging by the positioning of the warm front) 

[matty40s]

Potentially very erroneous observation - my iPhone app is now saying 27C with thunderstorm logo for Friday (currently going through Sidcup on the train).  

 

I would be very wary of any IPhone app that has a thunderstorm on a train in Sidcup.