Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Supacell]

Worst nightmare??? What chart is that? Does that combine SBCAPE and MLCAPE?

That's the most westerly extending CAPE chart I've seen for days

That's not for Fridays event, that is for next Thursday.

[Harry]

That's not for Fridays event, that is for next Thursday.

Oh.......how stupid of me!!!!! I'm flying off to Greece that day so would appreciate if there is no major storms then

[Wilxy]

hope these latest charts for tomorrow don't change much at least I would be able to go on a little chase as I own a car I am willing to drive anywhere along the south coast if its still looking good by this time tomorrow.

 

Bournemouth along to the Isle of Wight could be a good starting point!

Edited June 3, 2015 by tomjwlx

[Summer Sun]

This is the beebs current thoughts for Friday 2 clear areas of rain, one in the SE which has the potential for Thunderstorms and another band of rain further north and west cooler under this area of rain in the middle some sunshine and pleasant

 

Edited June 3, 2015 by Summer Sun

[TropicThunder]

I would definitely bank those charts, but I'm sure it will pan out differently. A case of radar watching for sure.

[Harry]

Perhaps this is where John Hammond is coming from...WRF-NMM model significantly more impressive SBCAPE than GFS and slower to clear

[alexisj9]

These potentially "severe" thunderstorm setups can tease frustratingly, even in the most hospitable of environments, so any predictions will probably need to be taken with a slight pinch of salt until much closer to the event.

 

I remember being in an office in the Ohio Valley, almost a year to the day, with the midweekly severe thunderstorm setup predicted by the NWS. Although predicted extensively in the days running up to it, the storm never seemed to show up until far later than predicted. I remember looking out of the office window to see bright blue sky and not a CB in sight... well, right until it was time to go home and soaked and pelted with hail in the parking lot! Also getting the TV severe thunderstorm warning "beeps" on the TV was quite a surreal experience. Also quite strange to also be sitting in the same office a week later, with the air raid sirens going off for a tornado warning, but no one else in the office reacting at all!

 

Looking at the charts - warm, continental, humid air coming in from the SE battling it out against a cold front, with a strong jet overhead, huge CAPE values and lifted indices surely equates to quite a powerful and potentially dangerous scenario surely? Wouldn't surprise me if a strong(ish) tornado by UK standards is seen somewhere in the SE of England.

Would not surprise me either, not that I want it to happen. The Graphic on BBC SE yesterday showed storms building in front of the cold front then lining out along it. Not sure whether I want that to happen or not.

[poseidon]

Met Office currently showing a "splodge" of storms around Stratford/Oxford/Milton Keynes central UK area at 4.00am Friday morning.

[Raidan]

What time does the bar open in the NSC got a feeling I'll be in there tomorrow and Friday and in need of a stiff drink!

[Chris K]

What time does the bar open in the NSC got a feeling I'll be in there tomorrow and Friday and in need of a stiff drink!

 

I am already there drinking the bar dry - better hurry!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The 18z coming out and oh my...

[Harry]

18z an improvement - subtle westerly and northerly shift, amplification of the SBCAPE and taking longer for the instability to clear

Come on baby, keep going

Edited June 3, 2015 by Harry

[Ben Sainsbury]

The 18z coming out and oh my...

 

18z an improvement - subtle westerly and northerly shift, amplification of the SBCAPE and taking longer for the instability to clear

Come on baby, keep going

Seems too good to be true!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The 18z coming out and oh my...

Got hot chocolate - I believe in miracles playing in my head!!

"Yesterday, it was right over France and Belgium,

now it's made a westward shift, making it to meeeee!! 😂

Very encouraging signs indeed.

Edited June 3, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Mapantz]

Certainly an improvement early on.

18Z

12Z

[Captain Shortwave]

Good GFS run, temperatures in the south east up to 27/28C, dew points approaching 20C and plenty of instability with a shortwave trough moving north east.

Certainly good potential there. Lets hope it holds or even better shifts a little further west.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not a major shift West but from the 00z this morning a trend has been a westward one let's hope tomorrow improves further

[shaky]

the trend has been brilliant today!!not very often you get plumes being pushed further west by the models this close to the event!!!over to the nmm!!midlands,east anglia and south east england are looking pretty good for some storms at the moment!!

[stainesbloke]

Good GFS run, temperatures in the south east up to 27/28C, dew points approaching 20C and plenty of instability with a shortwave trough moving north east.

Certainly good potential there. Lets hope it holds or even better shifts a little further west.

28C surface temps, 20C dewpoint and instability....music to my ears ......a further westwards shunt would be very exciting!

[A.J]

not saying we're country bumpkins here in Wiltshire, but the the local fruit & veg market are getting excited at the prospect of getting some juicy spanish plums on friday........I'll fetch me coat 

[Convective]

Maybe someone can help me. 

 

I only have an Extra Lite subscription at the moment, however now that there is more going on I'd like to upgrade to Extra Full so that I can view even more charts, such as the high resolution MLCAPE charts.

 

Is there any way I can do this or do I have to wait until my current subscription expires?

 

Its all getting exciting again!

[A.J]

Maybe someone can help me. 

 

I only have an Extra Lite subscription at the moment, however now that there is more going on I'd like to upgrade to Extra Full so that I can view even more charts, such as the high resolution MLCAPE charts.

 

Is there any way I can do this or do I have to wait until my current subscription expires?

 

Its all getting exciting again!

send an email to the site team (using the 'contact us' page) and they'll gladly upgrade you in time for tomorrow

[Harry]

Night all - going to bed happier than last night after this 18z.

Will be checking the 00z first thing tomorrow hopeful of even greater westward enhancement

[anything-but]

As things stand atm,  what`s the progged *kick off* times for any activity on Friday? Work on a motorbike in London, so undecided if to start early/finish early or late/late so i don`t get a proper soaking or electrocution.

[Convective]

Aside from this week's potential action, a couple of members are modelling lower pressure west of Spain next week which could, in time, lead to a nice set up. Miles out yet but still something to occupy the mind...