Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Stormyking]

We have lines of AcCas and even some small mid level cumulus around too, hopefully this is a good sign for tonight

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Completely different feel to the weather today almost like a switch 

[shaky]

amazingly warm here in leicester!!compare it to a couple of days ago and the difference is amazing!!think 22 degrees will be reached here today!!

Edited June 4, 2015 by shaky

[Gordon Webb]

As usual will be praying for nothing but if they happrn tomorrow morning this time looks most likely though I am no expert , just follow forecasts

[Harry]

Im no cloud expert.. But given that its not even 9 o clock yet I do believe this type is a good sign 

 

good sign.JPG

 

Indeed - mackerel skies always welcome - nowhere near as reliable as AcCas though to be honest, which are (absent an exploding Cb) by far the best visual precursor. 

[Azazel]

patches of Accas visible to my south on the way to work. Things looking good for tonight. Shame I will be asleep haha but to all you lucky lot staying up to watch and those in the south east tomorrow afternoon, ENJOY!

 

TAKE LOTS OF PICS AND VIDEO PLEASEEEE

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If these come of there will be lots of happy people in here..

 

Thomson index

TI    < 25      no thunderstorm.
TI    25-34    potential of thunderstorms.
TI    35-39    potential of thunderstorms approaching severe.
TI    => 40    potential of severe thunderstorm.

 

 

 

 

[Paul11]

Is Farnborough a good place to be at tonight and tomorrow?

[stainesbloke]

Pretty skies this morning...much warmer too. Lovely. Looking encouraging for tonight and tomorrow, somewhere across our region should do well!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Is Farnborough a good place to be at tonight and tomorrow?

 

Yep.. But like any thunderstorm set up, some places will get hammered while others watch the light show far away

[Nouska]

Just coming into range of the London WAFC forecast on IMO. Cb charts.

 

 

 

[Harry]

Interesting charts there Surrey, thanks for sharing.

 

Seems to shove it all east sooner though

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting charts there Surrey, thanks for sharing.

 

Seems to shove it all east sooner though

 

It does but I would take that to be fair because more people are involved 

[alexisj9]

Im no cloud expert.. But given that its not even 9 o clock yet I do believe this type is a good sign 

 

good sign.JPG

I was think the same thing, even got a few fluffy cumulus floating about already, didn't expect anything till later. Doesn't look like developing in to showers or storms just yet though, looks more like it's dissipating from where ever it developed.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This is good to:

 

 

[Harry]

Calm required people...NOTHING is anticipated to kick off until the early hours...any cumulus observed is simply fair weather cloud (not supercell seedlings) and as for AcCas, I am sceptical this is a correct classification. AcCas is not mid level cotton balls, but turret like mini-rooks (chess pieces) lined up.

 

This warmth is not plume associated...besides, it's the humidity we await not mere warmth...this will not start arriving until after dark this evening (perhaps IoW/south cost may be closer to midnight).

[Evening thunder]

I wonder how things will unfold.. BBC/Met precip charts seem to break out more normal looking showers in central/southern parts before storms explode over the far east tomorrow morning..

[chionomaniac]

Calm required people...NOTHING is anticipated to kick off until the early hours...any cumulus observed is simply fair weather cloud (not supercell seedlings) and as for AcCas, I am sceptical this is a correct classification. AcCas is not mid level cotton balls, but turret like mini-rooks (chess pieces) lined up.

 

This warmth is not plume associated...besides, it's the humidity we await not mere warmth...this will not start arriving until after dark this evening (perhaps IoW/south cost may be closer to midnight).

We have some cirrus and mid level altocumulus here. No sign of Ac Castellanus yet.

 

Pity Estofex is still down. Would like to see Europe's forecast today.

[Azazel]

i meant alto-cumulus haha, no turrets yet:p

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone know how fast these storms will be moving??

[Karl83]

I am literally on the edge of all the unstable air. I should think a 30 minute drive East in the early hours could be on the cards - Just to get some photos. Shame I cant get the day off!

[Harry]

Anyone know how fast these storms will be moving??

 

I would suspect relatively quickly...however, I think from 03z to 14z tomorrow, storms that fire could well be back building/liner in nature, so while storms could move through relatively speedily, any affected areas could experience lengthy thundery spells (i.e train of one cell after another).

 

This was the case on 28th June 2011, where storm motion was quite fast but still people experienced (in some cases) a good few hours of action.

 

This I think is more true the further east one goes...I'm going to have a pop at a forecast chart later on

Edited June 4, 2015 by Harry

[Noahjoe]

Would be nice for Estofex to make a miraculous return in the next few hours!

[Nouska]

We have some cirrus and mid level altocumulus here. No sign of Ac Castellanus yet.

 

Pity Estofex is still down. Would like to see Europe's forecast today.

 

In the absence of Estofex, I've put the French discussion through the Google translator. Instability comes through as 'jitter' - very apt for some of the anticipation seen on here.

 

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.keraunos.org%2Fprevisions%2Fprevision-orage-tornade-france-convective-outlook.html&edit-text=

 

Essentially orographic thunderstorms Thursday before an expected deterioration late next night in the northwest.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The ridge of high pressure in place for 48 hours on the south migrated to Switzerland and northern Italy. An upper level trough begins to approach the near Atlantic and generate a flow that will gain cyclonicity at the end of day on the Atlantic arc. The lower layers will remain very hot and humid over much of France.

On a large southern half, the vertical profiles will be very unstable, especially near the reliefs with up to 3,000 J / kg MUCAPE the Massif Central, the Pyrenees, Jura and the Alps. Nevertheless, only orographic lift and slope breezes that create small convergence zones will promote the emergence of convection on the massive, often under the form of isolated single cell but occasionally virulent.

Jitter is also very important on the way to the north of Aquitaine and Poitou. The still tenuous forcings should limit the proliferation of thunderstorms in this area but an isolated cell may be able to develop.

During tonight, the flow will recover in the southwest sector and bass still warm layers humidiferont significantly.

Thus, the latent instability reinforce the northwest of France since awaits a MUCAPE 2,000 J / kg, SBCAPE 1,300 J / kg and a MLCPAE 1,000 J / kg to local 03h of is from Brittany to Normandy and north of Poitou with MULI of -6K.

The analysis of the vertical profile on this axis shows instability well distributed throughout the thickness but convective marked inbibition will develop in the evening with mucin <-200 J / kg.

Simultaneously, in the second half of next night a jet branch circulate the Bay of Biscay to the south of England and a forcing circulate in the night in the English Channel in a stream of increasingly divergent altitude. Furthermore, a low layer convergence will gradually be structured in the form of a well designed surface trough that will evolve between Loire-Atlantique, Ille-et-Vilaine and Calvados tomorrow at dawn.

The altitude forcing rapidly evolving towards the south of England would have just the ability to blow nocturnal convective inhibition of Brittany. Some storm cells might be able to grow in the second half or end of next night on Britain and its surroundings

[chillyblast]

Hi all

 

I'm a complete novice but really enjoy reading the posts on this site, how is it looking for Northamptonshire tomorrow in terms of the storm(s)? Just wondering as I was going to go out but I will stay put if it is looking like it will hit us bullseye!

 

Thanks