Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Again the GFS 6z beginning to roll out now, and both 0z and 6z looking fairly similar, the highest of temperatures not looking so widespread now, but CAPE values looking similar and in terms of area of precipitation. Maybe the slightest East shift.

 

0z: 6z:

0z: 6z:

0z: 6z:

Edited June 4, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Supacell]

The 06z GFS is a little more east again than the 00z for tomorrow which is not really what we want. It has the main plume moving off the east coast in the afternoon which means the near continent sees big storms erupting tomorrow afternoon and evening. We still look to have two bites of the stormy cherry though on this run (and it is just one run of one model).

 

The first chance is tonight. The overnight elevated storm risk still looks to affect a good portion of the country with some active lightning storms erupting north and east from around midnight onwards into the morning hours. The spatial coverage and intensity has not really changed from this run to the last.

 

The second chance is the storms expected to develop in the plume tomorrow day. This is the area which has shunted eastwards but not enough yet to preclude areas such as Kent, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk from seeing some potent storms - this especially near to the east coast where the risk continues until later in the afternoon. By tomorrow tea time it will all be over on this run.... but by then a good few of us south and east of Bristol to Hull should be feeling quite satisfied.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Supacell

[Gordon Webb]

Hi all

 

I'm a complete novice but really enjoy reading the posts on this site, how is it looking for Northamptonshire tomorrow in terms of the storm(s)? Just wondering as I was going to go out but I will stay put if it is looking like it will hit us bullseye!

 

Thanks

 

you may some weather early tomorrow morning but that's likely to be short lived and that's if it's not shunted a little east during todays runs i think most of the real action will be further east which on a selfish note suits me fine

[A.J]

morning all.....ok, it's now T24 and closing, so time to take all the model output, fold it up neatly and chuck it in the bin as it's nowcasting & radar watching time....good luck everyone

[Mapantz]

Similar situation here..

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

MY THUNDERSTORM WATCHING PLAN :-D

I'm going to bed as soon as I get home - then have dinner about 8:30 or 9pm, maybe then I'll start checking forums and radar watching - probably leave the house at about 10:30pm to fuel up (will get storm snacks on the way home this avo) and head down the A3 to Butser Hill, ending up back at Guildford at some high point somewhere or other to get some wider and clearer shots or see cells passing further east or west.

Have a meeting at the office with my boss tomo first thing but I warned him i might be tired / badly burned from lightning strikes ;-) - oh and that I might smell a bit excited...

Can't wait ! Even if it's just distant or more atmospheric stuff :-D

[chillyblast]

you may some weather early tomorrow morning but that's likely to be short lived and that's if it's not shunted a little east during todays runs i think most of the real action will be further east which on a selfish note suits me fine

Thanks for the info, that's a shame as I thought we were in its path! Hope the rest of you enjoy the show (safely of course) if it pulls off.

[A.J]

Similar situation here..

20150604_111153.jpg

similar skies here now matey...patchy altocumulus & cirrocumulus moving up from the SW....no AcCas, but the Ac infers the first signs of mid level instability....I'l be on AcCas watch by this evening though!

[Gordon Webb]

Thanks for the info, that's a shame as I thought we were in its path! Hope the rest of you enjoy the show (safely of course) if it pulls off.

 

according to the met office warning your included and the best time I think judging by the bbc radar timeline which is pure guesswork by me will be in the morning perhaps between 6 and 10 am from elevated storms moving NE in the early hours / morning of course the latest GFS has just shunted it slightly E and if that trend keeps going you may not see anything at all

[Supacell]

Thanks for the info, that's a shame as I thought we were in its path! Hope the rest of you enjoy the show (safely of course) if it pulls off.

 

A complete guess from what current models are showing but I would think the best chance for you in Northamptonshire would be early in the morning, somewhere between 4am and 9am. These storms would be elevated and probably not big rain producers but lightning and thunder could be quite intense for a while. Of course, there is no promise any one location will get a storm even in the more favored east. As is the nature with storms, you could stay dry whilst 5 miles down the road they get a storm or vice versa.

 

Edit: Myself and Gordon posted the same thing... shows we are both seeing the same thing at least

Edited June 4, 2015 by Supacell

[Gordon Webb]

A complete guess from what current models are showing but I would think the best chance for you in Northamptonshire would be early in the morning, somewhere between 4am and 9am. These storms would be elevated and probably not big rain producers but lightning and thunder could be quite intense for a while. Of course, there is no promise any one location will get a storm even in the more favored east. As is the nature with storms, you could stay dry whilst 5 miles down the road they get a storm or vice versa.

 

Edit: Myself and Gordon posted the same thing... shows we are both seeing the same thing at least

 

yep same thing but for very different reasons lol

Edited June 4, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[sunnijim]

Plenty of altocumulus here in London,temperatures really responding here @1130 21c. GIven there's plenty of heating to come i think we will break the progged high of 23c today,perhaps a 25c somewhere?

Happy with that as all summer storms should be preceeded by a very warm/hot day imo,rather than a warmish 22c.Just my own little 'starter' pleasure before the main course.

[Mapantz]

I had a notification this morning, saying the MetO warnings have been updated. I see no changes in the warning zone, or the wording.

Possible update later today, as the impact matrix for confidence is firmly checked in the "very low" box.

I'm not too fussed what the output shows from now until later, just keeping the radar and satellite apps ready.

[Convective]

Preliminary views on this evening. Will have a look later this evening as to what's expected midnight onwards. As ever, pattern shifts can still occur and of course its a plume so something could show up almost anywhere.

 

[stainesbloke]

Plenty of altocumulus here in London,temperatures really responding here @1130 21c. GIven there's plenty of heating to come i think we will break the progged high of 23c today,perhaps a 25c somewhere?

Happy with that as all summer storms should be preceeded by a very warm/hot day imo,rather than a warmish 22c.Just my own little 'starter' pleasure before the main course.

Yes, lovely and warm here too at 20C. Brisk wind from the E-SE has set up, seems we just can't get rid of wind whatever the air type this year. Temps should beat 23C in this sun though, all good for later storm development! On days off work so am sunning myself at the allotment hehe Edited June 4, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Mapantz]

It's developing nicely and is now in transit.

[shaky]

It's developing nicely and is now in transit.

Screenshot_2015-06-04-11-37-55.png

exactly what i was looking at at around 8am this morning!!looks like its heading straight for the south coast and up the spine of the uk unless we get a sudden east shift!!

[Pat Butcher]

Just FYI - you can set up a proximity alarm on the Blitzortung Lightning Monitor app on Android, so that it'll go off when lightning is detected within X km of your location. Definitely not 100% reliable but I'll certainly be leaving my phone next to my bed tonight.

[chillyblast]

Thanks both! so all is not lost just yet, I will be eagerly watching for the Meto updates and following the track of the storm via your updates on here.

 

Currently as most have said, glorious day outside.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just FYI - you can set up a proximity alarm on the Blitzortung Lightning Monitor app on Android, so that it'll go off when lightning is detected within X km of your location. Definitely not 100% reliable but I'll certainly be leaving my phone next to my bed tonight.

 

My plan..

 

Mates over BBQ beers till about midnight, PS4 out while I await anything come 1am-2am if nothing is showing I will head for bed

[Thunderbolt_]

Well it's noon so we should start to see the first thunderstorms fire up over France soon...

[Evening thunder]

Some nice altocumulus here: 

 

 

 

Not feeling too warm here with the wind off the sea but that doesn't matter for mid-level instability.

 

I'm expecting any storms to be further east than here anyway but I am heading back to Egham this evening..

[StormChaseUK]

Just been to get lunch here in NW France, the wind has dropped right down, very still and more humid.

 

Can feel it now really starting to bake. 

[ThunderBuddy21]

I should start renting rooms out to you nutters! Might help me get over my phobia hahaha

[Spikecollie]

Just been to get lunch here in NW France, the wind has dropped right down, very still and more humid.

 

Can feel it now really starting to bake. 

I'm on my way over this evening. I'm not sure now about any storms in Limousin, let's see what happens, but I'm looking forward to that warmth!