Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[A.J]

the 12z NMM hi-res is out and I must say, it's rather impressive, progging elevated thunderstorms during the early hours of friday morning for central southern england (say Bristol to London)  these storms move quickly to the north east and dissipate...a second round of surface based thunderstorms fire during the afternoon over the SE and eastern most counties, these could be severe given the low level moisture rich air and huge amounts of surface instability.....as posted earlier, this though depends on detritus from earlier elevated convection clearing

Edited June 3, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Supacell]

I think the 28th June 2011 was the "El Gordo" storm.... followed one year later by "El Brumo". The 2011 one came the day after I headed down south on what looked like a great day for intense storms but produced nothing. I remember feeling a little peed off at what came the following morning after I had gone back home.

 

IF things remain the same by this time tomorrow I will be heading down south, possibly as far as the coast for any overnight show.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Supacell

[Pat Butcher]

the 12z NMM hi-res is out and I must say, it's rather impressive, progging elevated thunderstorms during the early hours of friday morning for central southern england (say Bristol to London)  these storms move quickly to the north east and dissipate...a second round of surface based thunderstorms fire during the afternoon over the SE and eastern most counties, these could be severe given the low level moisture rich air and huge amounts of surface instability.....as posted earlier, this though depends on detritus from earlier elevated convection clearing

Just to put me out of my misery, anything as far north and central as Leeds is out of the question?

[Harry]

the 12z NMM hi-res is out and I must say, it's rather impressive, progging elevated thunderstorms during the early hours of friday morning for central southern england (say Bristol to London)  these storms move quickly to the north east and dissipate...a second round of surface based thunderstorms fire during the afternoon over the SE and eastern most counties, these could be severe given the low level moisture rich air and huge amounts of surface instability.....as posted earlier, this though depends on detritus from earlier elevated convection clearing

Are allowed to divulge the odd chart?

Eastern most, would DA5 come into that bracket??

[A.J]

Just to put me out of my misery, anything as far north and central as Leeds is out of the question?

leeds might be pushing it bit.....for elevated storms based on this run, I'd go a risk zone east of a line Bristol to Hull, and for surface based friday pm storms, a line London to Hull eastwards

[Harry]

Hasten to add - I'm not being lazy - cooking dinner and occasionally having a cheeky look at my phone

[A.J]

Are allowed to divulge the odd chart?

Eastern most, would DA5 come into that bracket??

sure

 

3 lots of charts.....1st batch, for elevate storms at 3am.....2nd batch for elevated storms at 9am.....3rd batch for surface based storms starting to fire at midday...

 

 

     

 

 

 

     

 

 

 

 

       

[Noahjoe]

Yes, wetterzentral.de have an archive going back to January 1871. A couple examples are:

 

28 June 2012: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120120628.gif

23 July 2013: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2013/Rrea00120130723.gif

 

The charts for 2014 haven't updated, so you can't see the June and July plumes from last year yet.

Thank you!

[Noahjoe]

They were really good, happened to be down in Brighton at the time so a direct hit.

I remember it being quite frustrating because in that case the trough didn't do the business the day before as was forecast and everyone was getting pretty frustrated but finally the following day the CF cut through and then it all went mad in the SE.

I remember it now, I was doing some music rehearsals in a church funnily enough and there was the loudest gunshot thunder I've ever heard with the speakers crackling at the same time....we thought that maybe the lightning hit the conductor on the top of the building Edited June 3, 2015 by Noahjoe

[ANYWEATHER]

Early hours of Friday morning may see some thunderstorms pushing north across central southern England. I would not put any money on it though...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thursday night is going to be a long night watching and waiting. But it will be made the most of by myself, as the long term isn't looking too promising at this moment. Things could change quickly though god willing!

[Mapantz]

Interestingly, the 3KM NMM has things further West than the 4KM..

 

It get's said nearly every time, but it really is a radar watch situation.

[alexisj9]

With the models as they are, if they are still like that tomorrow afternoon, then my Mrs who is staying over tomorrow night is goona hate me! #allnighter #weatherwiredo

Yep same with my hubby.

[Harry]

Yep same with my hubby.

I happened to be staying at my bf's the night of 6th August 2008...sufficed to say unimpressed was an understatement...after 8 and 1/2 years the rules of engagement have now sunk in

Edited June 3, 2015 by Harry

[Dan the Man]

These potentially "severe" thunderstorm setups can tease frustratingly, even in the most hospitable of environments, so any predictions will probably need to be taken with a slight pinch of salt until much closer to the event.

 

I remember being in an office in the Ohio Valley, almost a year to the day, with the midweekly severe thunderstorm setup predicted by the NWS. Although predicted extensively in the days running up to it, the storm never seemed to show up until far later than predicted. I remember looking out of the office window to see bright blue sky and not a CB in sight... well, right until it was time to go home and soaked and pelted with hail in the parking lot! Also getting the TV severe thunderstorm warning "beeps" on the TV was quite a surreal experience. Also quite strange to also be sitting in the same office a week later, with the air raid sirens going off for a tornado warning, but no one else in the office reacting at all!

 

Looking at the charts - warm, continental, humid air coming in from the SE battling it out against a cold front, with a strong jet overhead, huge CAPE values and lifted indices surely equates to quite a powerful and potentially dangerous scenario surely? Wouldn't surprise me if a strong(ish) tornado by UK standards is seen somewhere in the SE of England.

[alexisj9]

If I remember correctly these storms formed from a similar sort of set up currently expected for Friday

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GtwvAnVpIS4

I hope not I hate thunder like that, had a positive strike last year, ouch.

[Harry]

John Hammond - "storms could clear away for a time before we see some heavier storms later in the afternoon...bit uncertain we'll have to keep an eye on that"

...has he seen something we haven't??

[alexisj9]

Yes I remember watching live and a few of the players got a fright from a strike directly overhead!

Me too.

[Harry]

I hope not I hate thunder like that, had a positive strike last year, ouch.

I have a vivid recollection of those storms...proper lightning, proper thunder...that's how thunder should always sound

[Ben Sainsbury]

John Hammond - "storms could clear away for a time before we see some heavier storms later in the afternoon...bit uncertain we'll have to keep an eye on that"

...has he seen something we haven't??

Well Ian Fergusson expects that a few storms may pass over Wiltshire then spreading east but that's about it for Western areas.

 

A little heads up, a little something on the horizon. Well hopefully...

Our worst nightmare, just doesn't want to cross

Edited June 3, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[tcc]

Did he say where these heavy storms were heading for?

 

Looking at the charts I have a feeling us in Sussex could well miss out this time round, initial storms over to our west with our Hants cousins, then later on we'll be the breeding ground for storms to hit Essex etc!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well the nicer weather is certainly trying to make a show , not a cloud in the sky and a good temp.. Come on you storms!!

[Harry]

Well Ian Fergusson expects that a few storms may pass over Wiltshire then spreading east but that's about it for Western areas.

A little heads up, a little something on the horizon. Well hopefully...

ukcapeli.png

Our worst nightmare, just doesn't want to cross

Worst nightmare??? What chart is that? Does that combine SBCAPE and MLCAPE?

That's the most westerly extending CAPE chart I've seen for days

Edited June 3, 2015 by Harry

[Harry]

Did he say where these heavy storms were heading for?

 

Looking at the charts I have a feeling us in Sussex could well miss out this time round, initial storms over to our west with our Hants cousins, then later on we'll be the breeding ground for storms to hit Essex etc!

Nope - it was emphasised that there is a broad scope for change...my point is I haven't seen a chart which suggests any real storm activity much beyond 12z so am curious as to whether he has and/or suspects there could be a delayed clearance of humid airmass.

[Noahjoe]

Did he say where these heavy storms were heading for?

 

Looking at the charts I have a feeling us in Sussex could well miss out this time round, initial storms over to our west with our Hants cousins, then later on we'll be the breeding ground for storms to hit Essex etc!

On the BBC forecast that was referred to the first batch of storms seemed to be placed slightly further East and continously pass through Sussex and then on to London and EA, but I agree that many charts seem to be putting it further east...finger crossed eh?