Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Nick123]

May be some positive lightening, the thunder is normally much louder and sounds more like an explosion than normal thunder, is that what you mean

Yes, exactly!

[Grazy2266]

Just seen the BBC forecast and they say, one or two rumbles of thunder possible during the afternoon on Friday...... Ummmmmm don't that seem a downgrade lol

 

I don't often listen to BBC anyway I prefer to forecast myself lol

Edited June 11, 2015 by Grazy2266

[Nick123]

Just seen the BBC forecast and they say, one or two rumbles of thunder possible during the afternoon on Friday...... Ummmmmm don't that seem a downgrade lol

 

I don't often listen to BBC anyway I prefer to forecast myself lol

 

It depends very much on the forecaster I find. So far, they've been wrong so I wouldn't pay too much attention anyways

[Grazy2266]

I hope all this stuff moving up through central France heading our way don't give us a cloudy Friday!!!!

[Grazy2266]

The storm just moving out of France I would imagine it's journey over the Cool English Channel will begin to kill it.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Grazy2266

[Mesoscale]

The storm just moving out of France I would imagine it's journey over the Cool English Channel will begin to kill it.

Yeah I think it will die just off shore of Southern England but I believe it will give a pretty good lightshow again for the southerners.

[Cyclonic]

Just got back from travels around the Island (IOW)

Stopped at Compton bay to have a look at the lightning, then went into Freshwater Bay and stopped there. Saw some pretty nice lightning and a few double CG's.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The storm just moving out of France I would imagine it's journey over the Cool English Channel will begin to kill it.

Think it might be more elevated in nature than the ones that formed further West and died, which gave a total non event for the areas primed for it, Devon and Cornwall etc. So this one may well survive longer in my betting.

[Dean E]

On the back of the system thats moving through now, it has exploded! Stand-by Brighton!

[daveywoo1977]

A pretty much non event tonight but that what was really forcast. It's looking touch and go for me tomorrow now

[Callie]

Just starting to see lightning here!!

[Mark -W-s-M]

Keep an eye out to the far southwest too something could be developing there.

[Grazy2266]

The back edge has increased a little just south of Brighton, I don't think it will continue this way looking at the charts but they are already out of date lol

 

On a second note the latest FAX charts look good for Southern England tomorrow.

[Grazy2266]

When I look back 6pm all this rain/storms started to move over the channel and it's only just in extreme south slow moving for sure! The only active part of the system is just south of Brighton, let's hope this keeps going. I notice the area of rain is decreasing quite fast too.

[Grazy2266]

Gosh just popped outside to check the temperature and it's only 8°C here, it was 14°C at 11pm. I thought the breeze coming through the window felt very cool lol

[Dean E]

I've noticed once the system has moved into the 10c dew point mark, they sferics dropped dramatically. That storm near Brighton is just sneaking into the 12c dew points (according to NNM model) and will shortly move out of that area, so will have to keep an eye on that!

[stevofunnelcl]

I think we need to focus on home-grown storms

 

Imports just don't cut it, these days

 

English Channel = storm killer

[Stormyking]

Quite a decent night overall, had a great light show earlier and captured my very first Lightning strikes which I shall share with you all! Some pretty close strikes towards the end with some beautiful CG'S but quickly died out into just an area of general Thundery rain... However im not gonna say its all over yet as I wouldnt be surprised if some individual elevated cells pop up over the channel

[Panayiotis]

What about last week the channel didnt kill the storms...

[Stormyking]

The channel is not a storm killer, majority of the storms we get along the South coast of the UK is actually developed over channel, even as much  as 20 miles away! Because majority is usually Elevated stuff, which you not need surfaced cape or lifted or a lot of heating for this to happen! A good example is March 2010 an elevated storm developed barely 40 miles to our south over the channel, and it was a beast for March!

 

The reason storms always die when they leave France is because they are surface based, so the cooler seas will kill them.. This has no affect on Elevated/ mid level storms, because these develop high up into the Atmosphere, so the channel will have no affect on these type of storms. Right now the cells that's developed going towards South East coast around Brighton, developed in the channel them selves.

[Rain123]

Well all the radar watching so far has been a waste of time. That Brighton storm looks promising though.

[<<Ryan>>]

Woke up all hot and sticky, stared into the dark sky looking south and can see it lighting up every 20-30 seconds. Just a couple of rumbles and i'll count plume #2 a success

[Darren Bown]

A level 2 Estofex warning is in effect over Wales and SW England, with a level 1 for the rest of central and southern. England.

[Mesoscale]

Looks like most of the activity is dying over the channel now, but its pretty cloudy here and I am wondering if it can clear?

[Mesoscale]

A level 2 Estofex warning is in effect over Wales and SW England, with a level 1 for the rest of central and southern. England.

Also looking at the previous forecast from Estofex it was spot on about tonight.