Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Supacell]

Huge downgrade from GFS this morning. There is still a chance of storms in the south but it looks to have reduced dramatically from last nights charts. I wonder if residual left over cloud is now expected to inhibit things?

 

Edit: Most probably as temperatures are 2-3c cooler for today on the latest 00z run for the south.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Supacell

[Mesoscale]

Clouds are looking pretty thin right now, not sure if the sun will burn them away or enhance them, on a lighter note I have just seen 3 parakeets fly over which was nice.

[Supacell]

It's a beautiful Sunrise here with no cloud in sight. If clouds break early in southern areas then the prediction of 22-23c is very underestimated and thus so will CAPE forecasts.

[Mesoscale]

It's a beautiful Sunrise here with no cloud in sight. If clouds break early in southern areas then the prediction of 22-23c is very underestimated and thus so will CAPE forecasts.

One can only hope, to get my fix I have been watching severe thunderstorm videos, currently watching one from Montreal from the 10th June. Its not helping haha.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

It's a beautiful Sunrise here with no cloud in sight. If clouds break early in southern areas then the prediction of 22-23c is very underestimated and thus so will CAPE forecasts.

The GFS doesn't look that bad to be honest

 

Probably knocked a degree off but still the mid-twenties forecast for many (The GFS seems to knock the temperatures down at the last minute for no real reason and ends up further away than its previous predictions).

Lets see what the NMM has in store.

 

Hazy sunshine here, not real sign of anything yet here.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Steve C]

Only thin high level cloud here, so here's hoping GFS has got this wrong.

[Supacell]

The GFS doesn't look that bad to be honest

 

Probably knocked a degree off but still the mid-twenties forecast for many (The GFS seems to knock the temperatures down at the last minute for no real reason and ends up further away than its previous predictions).

Lets see what the NMM has in store.

 

Hazy sunshine here, not real sign of anything yet here.

 

I probably should have said that I was concentrating on the "sweet spot" of the M4 corridor between London and Bristol. Of course, the sweet spot could well have moved or the GFS could be wrong in it's prediction.

 

To be honest I know looking at the models at this stage is futile and a far better source now is radars and observations from people on the ground. It's just I would have liked some agreement from the models and forecasts as to where would be the best place for me to head out. Currently I am sticking with the M4 corridor

[Homerr]

Just a load of high level murk over me at the moment right in the top corner of NW London.

 

Hope it clears... I was looking forward to getting onto the roof at work and getting some cool photos 

[Buckster]

whats that hook like shape North-West France on Radar ?

 

S-East of Jersey on map

 

dry air ?

Edited June 12, 2015 by Buckster

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Carol Kirkwood has just dropped the H word in the latest BBC forecast for tonights storms!

[Homerr]

Sun is breaking through now! Come on... HEAT, HEAT! 

[Steve C]

Carol Kirkwood has just dropped the H word in the latest BBC forecast for tonights storms!

 

Yes, was a very optimistic forecast. The penguins were funny too!

[tomp456]

I hope this damn cloud clears soon

[Daniel*]

What a disaster.

actually it's not all bad the cloud is dissipating...albeit slowly with closer inspection.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Daniel*

[Chris K]

Whilst it's pretty much a now-cast thing, the grey skies, 5 degree downgrade in temps (for here) by met office and rainfall isn't exactly inspiring confidence in me this morning....

Where is weather09 when you need him

Edited June 12, 2015 by Chris K

[Speedway Slider]

Carol Kirkwood has just dropped the H word in the latest BBC forecast for tonights storms!

Maybe I am a little slow this morning? The "H" word?

Enlighten the tired please?

âš¡

[Buckster]

blue skies in Essex

 

going to be a hot - and hopefully stormy one

[Speedway Slider]

Maybe I am a little slow this morning? The "H" word?

Enlighten the tired please?

âš¡

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Maybe I am a little slow this morning? The "H" word?

Enlighten the tired please?

âš¡

 

 

Humdinger

[Captain Shortwave]

Maybe I am a little slow this morning? The "H" word?

Enlighten the tired please?

âš¡

Humdinger 

The Kirkwood curse could strike again 

 

That said no need to feel disheartened just yet, it isn't even 7am yet. That said why am I awake when I have a 6pm-11pm shift to do later. The high cloud should burn away slowly, we will just need to get the sunshine and heat to break the cap over central areas. Again though all eyes should be to our south for further developments.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Steve C]

Humdinger

[shaky]

clouds clearing here in leicester!!more low cloud than anything else!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Sun is out here, and has actually generated small cumulus heading W'ly on the light easterly breeze. 6 hours to go, then I can properly chase!

[Mesoscale]

Almost clear blue skies here just with a few high clouds, feeling warm in that sunshine! Come on England don't fail us this time!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Humdinger

 

 

Humdinger 

The Kirkwood curse could strike again 

 

That said no need to feel disheartened just yet, it isn't even 7am yet. That said why am I awake when I have a 6pm-11pm shift to do later. The high cloud should burn away slowly, we will just need to get the sunshine and heat to break the cap over central areas. Again though all eyes should be to our south for further developments.

 

 

Humdinger

 

If it wasn't cursed before it definetly is now lol