Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Blessed Weather]

stainsbloke, seaside 60, Alexisj9 and Ed Stone - you may be interested in this post by Paul in the Help thread today:

 

There's a bug in the software which is preventing uploads for profile pictures at the moment I'm afraid. A way around it is to upload the photo to your gallery, then on the options button when viewing that image, there's a link to use it as your photo

[seaside 60]

Ok Thanks BW.

 

What happened to lovely summer days with nice sea breezes.

I cant stand these sw dominated summers with excessive humidity.

Even though temps are well up, the weather is supressing sea breezes.

At this rate roll on autumn, this weather drains the hell out of you.

This morning was horrendous.

[Daniel*]

stainsbloke, seaside 60, Alexisj9 and Ed Stone - you may be interested in this post by Paul in the Help thread today:

 

There's a bug in the software which is preventing uploads for profile pictures at the moment I'm afraid. A way around it is to upload the photo to your gallery, then on the options button when viewing that image, there's a link to use it as your photo

I've also discovered out imgur works you upload your chosen image and then you just copy & paste URL.

[seaside 60]

Also how far down % wise on rainfall so far this summer, it seems it never rains any more even when for casted.

[alexisj9]

Also how far down % wise on rainfall so far this summer, it seems it never rains any more even when for casted.

Not sure but must be well down.

[Daniel*]

Not sure but must be well down.

In June I only got 24% of the average rainfall so substantially below.

[Captain Shortwave]

A drizzle fest to start with today, but things did improve with some sunny spells during the afternoon. A high of 23C in Chelmsford.

[Blessed Weather]

Just got home and it seems like an upgrade this afternoon by the NMM 12z for the chance of a thunderstorm in the west of our Region in the early hours of Friday.

 

700 hPa Vertical 01.00  Precipitation 01.00 

 

Mustn't forget though - the geographic positioning of such features on forecast charts should be taken as indicative, they are not exact! Tomorrows charts awaited with interest.

[Captain Shortwave]

A cloudy start here, though there are holes in this sheet of mid to high level stuff. Fingers crossed for some fireworks later today.

[Blessed Weather]

This morning's high res NMM 2km model output continues to show storm potential for the west of the Region, roughly in a line from west London up to the Wash. The risk increasing as any development moves NE towards the Wash.

 

700 hPa Vertical Fri 01.00   Precip 02.00 

 

The Met Office forecast from Alex Deakin this morning is in agreement: 

 

Well done the NMM 5km model for showing the potential to the west of our patch 2 days ago.

[alexisj9]

I hope one of the forecast for later is wrong although I'm sure chasers are hoping otherwise.

[loopydreamer]

I'm still going to keep an eye on developments. Weather is unpredictable

[VillagePlank]

Interesting day for weather watchers in the SE, today.

 

Here's the skew-Ts for Heathrow, for this afternoon leading into the evening,

 

 

Essentially, not too much potential all afternoon, however, around 18-21z the atmosphere changes to moderate convective potential (K=32) with likely thunderstorms (T=49) with the very faint risk of an isolated severe storm. Despite some forecasts suggesting tornadoes, this seems unlikely despite significant PBL shear (EHI (not shown) = 0.44) which, despite only maginal instability (LI=-1) might be enough to break the cap (CIN=42) Where storms/cells do form they are likely to be torrential (PW=3.32) with over an inch of rain falling in a very short space of time. Shear and low-level fast jet are today's triggers that might intensive cells to storm, and the energy is certainly there (DP=14.4) especially if these combine late in the afternoon with expected surface heating. In this neck of the woods large hail and frequent lightning seem unlikely (CAPE=340)

 

Potential for SE starts around 18z Thurs, fading by 03z Friday.

 

Happy storm hunting!

 

Edited July 16, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Lauren]

The BBC weather online is going for sun all day and a dry night.

[Harry]

The BBC weather online is going for sun all day and a dry night.

 

Might be wrong, but didn't it two weeks ago also?

[stainesbloke]

Might have a small chance of storms later if this sodding cloud buggers off! Some hot sunny weather clearing the N French coast heading our way hopefully very soon. Am so over dreary grey skies.

[Lauren]

Might be wrong, but didn't it two weeks ago also?

 

It did actually!

[alexisj9]

Got nothing but a sheet of cloud at the moment, not much chance of surface heating unless this burns off, still humid though. 

[nicol@]

The cloud cleared here earlier, but are growing again, still plenty of sun to heat things up.

[Daniel*]

NMM shows a MCS trudging up from S coast exiting the North Sea via Fens locale. Another possible variation quite a lot of the models are going for some respectable rainfall totals for the southeast.

Edited July 16, 2015 by Daniel*

[tomp456]

Had a bit of sun earlier, but the crap  cloud has now returned. Not good!!!!

[stun12]

After a foggy start the skies have now cleared, leaving a nice sunny day though with quite a fresh breeze. 22.6C at the moment / 76% humidity.

[Daniel*]

I hope one of the forecast for later is wrong although I'm sure chasers are hoping otherwise.

They're very useless in these nowcasting situations remember that supposed Polar Low track forecast back in January if they say left you go right - when the whole site knew it was going NW to SE.

[alexisj9]

I have Ac Cas, moving in from the SW.

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorm towards Canterbury/Herne Bay. Heard the rumble, looked outside and a growing tower