Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Duane S.]

We've had the child, I think daddy is coming. Constant flashing just to the south

[Alicol]

we just need to get a BIG enough MAGNET LOL

 

I'd pay! Despite my craving for a storm to rival 4 July 2001 (journey over Caerphilly mountain was memorable) I seriously hope others get a blast, it might mute the pain.

[Mokidugway]

The North west is about to get round 2 by lightning storms now!!

liking it pip ..

[Flipflop]

The weather sure chooses the best time to go all moody and scratch her nails across her skin with sparks and chunks as im just starting to relax pfftt

 

NO.

 

Night time storms are the best visually than the daytime stuff.

 

Get snapping

 

May take a while. FF

[alijoy60]

Some nice strikes virtually overhead. Just a few sporadic fat drops of rain.

Ainsdale is between Formby and Southport. Still very warm with gusty breeze.

Edited July 3, 2015 by alijoy60

[ChezWeather]

TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2015/004 and TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2015/007

A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH and CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION have been issued at 21:35GMT on Friday July 3rd 2015

Valid from/until: 21:35-06:00 (SVR WATCH) and 21:25-12:00 (CONV DISCUSSION) on Friday July 3rd/Saturday July 4th 2015 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Much of England along with SE Wales (SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH)

Much of western England/Wales into Scotland, and eastern Ireland, and Northern Ireland (CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION)

THREATS

SVR WATCH (blue box): Hail to 20-50mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; frequent CG lightning; locally heavy rainfall.

CONV DISCUSION (yellow box): Hail to 15mm diamter; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; locally heavy rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A plume of moisture and instability is moving quickly northwards across the British Isles this evening. Scattered thunderstorms have formed along the warm front in N Wales/N Midlands, and within the moisture plume close to Dorset. Other thunderstorms have formed close to southern Ireland. As a strong upper trough moves in overnight, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across much of the British Isles, but the higher instability/shear combination will be reserved for the severe thunderstorm watch area. However, within this area, there is a stronger capping inversion, especially with south-eastward extent. Thus, storms may be more isolated towards SE England, and indeed may not develop here at all.

The mixture of ~1000J/Kg of elevated CAPE and shear values of 30-40 knots across the severe thunderstorm watch area suggests that elevated supercells and well-organised multicells may develop, bringing the risk of large hail and locally strong winds. If storms tend to congeal into one or more clusters, or even an MCS, a more widespread wind threat could emerge. The tornado risk is considered low due to the slightly elevated nature of the storms. However, there may be a brief window of oppurtunity in the higher instability area in the south-east of the watch.

For the convective discussion area, CAPE is somewhat more meagre, although forcing for ascent from the approaching upper trough will be stronger, and so thunderstorms are still likely. A few may become strong with moderately large hail and a few strong wind gusts.

The activity will continue to shift northwards overnight with the risk decreasing quickly in the wake of it across southern and central areas later in the night.

Forecaster: RPK.

 

[Staffordshire]

Think I'm gonna head out very soon, where to though... Hmmmm

[suffolkboy_]

Londoners are going to be happy in the next hour or two, that cell to the south has grown from nothing to producing its first lightning strike in just 15 minutes!

[Grazy2266]

Back from the pub now for Nowcasting!!!! Let's keep everything crossed that Aylesbury (Buckinghamshire) get's to see at least a flash or two lol, We have a wonderful habit of sending storms west or east and sit in the middle nice and dry lol

[Rain123]

What time do we call it quits? Around 0300?

[seasider]

Just seen 4 Cg directly south of me within space of a minute. Starting to hear rumbles now so its getting closer

[Harsh Climate]

WOOOOP These showers getting electrified just before they reach me, might actually see something before midnight at this rate.

 

 

Remember what we are seeing now in the north is a few scattered thunderstorms ahead of the real big ones that should develop later.

[westysweather]

Flash of lightning in Exeter

[SalopWatcher]

Where abouts are you now?

Nescliffe near Oswestry. It's all to distant for my I phone to get anything decent on periscope, but I know what I'm doing now. If we get anything closer it will be back.

Seen the sky light up 30/40 times and some distant rumbles. My observations in last 20 minutes is its intensifying in Wales

[Mistyxxmo]

Just seen two distant flashes from my garden. Yey!

[sunnijim]

Looking like a 'beast' muturing nicely for SE London. Moving direct North and growing over Edenbridge,Sussex

[Mark.C]

Thunder and lightning getting closer

[Gordon Webb]

unlikely way to much instability being crated with the cold front ,warm front a much decayed feature imo ..

 

well logic dictates that as the warm front is already to my north when the cold front catches it up I should be in less volatile situation my south correct or am I clutching at straws

[pip22]

The cell in Wales is getting pretty intense maybe not long before it becomes a supercell.

[Luke Best]

CONSTANT lightning in the channel to my SW. I'm on Bournemouth clifftop.

[Karl83]

What are the chances of Bristol seeing the storms from the Weymouth lot? I thought they would head more of a slight NE than NW?

I think we're in with a shout Chris!

[tomp456]

Several strikes west of crowborough 

[ancientsolar]

Well, from the Welsh valleys, I nee to look to my North West and South East for some flashes ! If it's elevated enough of course

[davehsug]

Bournemouth webcam suddenly gone into overdrive!

http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/AttractionsLeisure/BeachesandWaterfront/PierApproachWebcam2.aspx

[chionomaniac]

Hurray, cell developing south of Shoreham!