North West England - Weather Chat - 03/07/15 onwards

[cheshire snow]

I see the model thread is starting to click into gear. A proper cold spell could be just around the corner...

 

 Hopefully...However been the UK there is bound to be some toys been thrown

 

 Lets see how the next 48hrs go then we should have a clearer picture.  

 

 Crewe Cold was spot on in the MOD we really need to get the GFS on board, FI on the 12z

 

 was truly terrible....Over to the ECM   

 

C.S

[pip22]

The Hail is actually been stuck to the ground here. Most of it is melted now.

[iand61]

After a morning of heavy showers including some hail and a bit of sleet mixed in, it dried up somewhat during the afternoon but now the showers are back again.

Felt cold as well with temperatures only getting to 7c.

Currently 4.7c.

As for the weekend, it's looking a bit damp.

[pip22]

The Met Office just extended the rain warning to Tuesday now.

 

Issued at:
1611 on Fri 13 Nov 2015

Valid from:
1200 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

Valid to:
2359 on Tue 17 Nov 2015

Successive frontal systems moving quickly west to east will bring some persistent and locally heavy rainfall for a time across the hills of Northern Ireland, south-west Scotland, north-west England and north-west Wales.Be aware of the potential for localised flooding, both from standing water and rivers overtopping their banks, particularly given the saturated ground resulting from heavy rainfall over the weekend.

Edited November 13, 2015 by pip22

[itsnowjoke]

Brilliantly freezing here and to top it off I've no hot water or heating greaaat

[iand61]

The Met Office just extended the rain warning to Tuesday now.

 

Issued at: 1611 on Fri 13 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1200 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 17 Nov 2015

Successive frontal systems moving quickly west to east will bring some persistent and locally heavy rainfall for a time across the hills of Northern Ireland, south-west Scotland, north-west England and north-west Wales.

Be aware of the potential for localised flooding, both from standing water and rivers overtopping their banks, particularly given the saturated ground resulting from heavy rainfall over the weekend.

A potentially serious situation is likely to develop in parts of the region over the next few days and one that certainly cannot be underestimated.

I'm just glad that I live on a valley side and not the bottom or worst still, a flood plain.

[pip22]

Some places will see 48 hours of continuous persistent rain according to Helen Willets from the BBC weather forecast.

 

Get your sandbanks ready anyone its going to be a washout!!

Edited November 13, 2015 by pip22

[Thunderbolt_]

Squally showers following Storm Abigail:

 

[shadowfax]

My chickens now need to be ducks to cope with the amount of water, the ground is saturated and to top it all we've had thunder and hail. As Ian said its lucky I live on the side of the valley and not the bottom  ... I can hear hail again !!!

[iand61]

My chickens now need to be ducks to cope with the amount of water, the ground is saturated and to top it all we've had thunder and hail. As Ian said its lucky I live on the side of the valley and not the bottom  ... I can hear hail again !!!

Nice to hear from you again shadowfax.

Let's just hope that the winter is measured by the depth of snow in Bacup rather than floodwater as maybe the case this weekend.

[iand61]

Rain, hail and thunder, what a lovely evening.

Just need the kitchen sink thrown at us now.

[SparkleS]

Hail showers again and strong gusts!!! I hope the weathers ok a week tomorrow 21st nov, ive organised a birthday party in preston for my sons birthday on the 26th.

[Liam J]

Already been mentioned above, but I've just seen the updated Met warning, the impact has been moved to the highest on the warning matrix and is now only one step down from a red warning.... 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[dodge]

I'd like to bank some of those cold charts showing in the model thread, alas they just tantalizingly out of reach of being treated seriously at the moment.  Would love them to firm up and still be showing the same come Monday.... in the meantime, wet, wet, wet..

[iand61]

Already been mentioned above, but I've just seen the updated Met warning, the impact has been moved to the highest on the warning matrix and is now only one step down from a red warning.... 

 

 

 

warn.PNG

The BBC are really taking this seriously, maybe the amounts that hit Cumbria in November 09 has brought home the realisation that similar conditions could arise and this time around, urban areas further south also look to be in the firing line for some large amounts of rain.

Flooding is almost certainly going to be an issue; it's just a case of where and how bad.

[Liam J]

The BBC are really taking this seriously, maybe the amounts that hit Cumbria in November 09 has brought home the realisation that similar conditions could arise and this time around, urban areas further south also look to be in the firing line for some large amounts of rain.

Flooding is almost certainly going to be an issue; it's just a case of where and how bad.

And rightly so, I think this is the first time since Nov 2009 that such high rainfall totals have been forecast... 2009 saw 300mm+ over the Central Lakes so not quite to the same level... Can't remember what the forecast rainfall amounts were in the days before the November 2009 deluge. 

[iand61]

It's unusual to hear exceptional amounts of rain mentioned in a forecast for the UK but considering that a very wet day and subsequent flooding can come on the back of 30-50mm then even the 100mm being talked about as widely expected throughout the region is worthy of exceptional.

Double that and possibly more again for some and we are in uncharted territory.

[Liam J]

So, two days before the deluge in 2009 John Hammond was forecasting 100-120mm of rainfall.... Slightly underestimated! 

 

 

And this is the forecast on the day from Tomasz.... Far higher totals than were forecast two days before.

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Miamay]

Hail showers/ rain passing through

[AderynCoch]

Hailstones.

 

Off go the car alarms.

[rain_shadow]

Although just 20 miles away, Snowdonia should get 100-150mm by Sunday evening? It will be very interesting to see our rain shadow effect here in the vale of Clwyd...

[Thunder Snow]

Wonder if a red warning will be issued

[Ashlfc]

Just started belting down here

[Thunder Snow]

Went for a nose in the model area for latest info on weekend. However I think there's the possibility of a cold snap :/

[Thunder Snow]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/jan2005floods

:/ same amount of rain plus what has already fallen :/