Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[knocker]

The GFS take on the weekend this morning.

 

Friday 12z low NW of Scotland with HP to the south and SE giving a SW flow with average temps.

 

Saturday 12z HP northern Germany temps slightly above average.

 

Sunday l12z low approaching from the SW curves north to be west of Ireland temps a little above average in England.

 

Monday 12z  Low still west of Ireland with HP to SW and SE with temps slightly above average

 

Place you bets..............................

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 24, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

What a difference a day makes or even 12 hours. Just a glance at the anomalies for 12z Sunday. And en passant the ECM has a quite different take on the weekend to the GFS.

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY AUG 24TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure will move NE close to SE England today followed by an active trough of Low pressure moving NE over England and Wales tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining very unsettled this week with rain at times. Perhaps rather drier as we move into September.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern this week will see the flow blowing mostly from a SW to NE direction across England and Wales. It will be quite strong at times given the time of year. Through next weekend it may ridge North somewhat although very briefly before through the second week the flow remains locked in a trough like state over or around the South of the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure well in dominance across the UK for the whole of this week with rain or showers at times in rather cooler and blustery conditions than of late. Towards next weekend the South and East may enjoy a brief drier and warmer interlude with humid air spilling back briefly before Low pressure returns from the SW. The rest of the second week is then governed by various areas of Low pressure and attendant rainfall affecting the UK on various occasions with temperatures on the slide somewhat again.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today is almost a replica of it's operational partner in that a lot of unsettled and wet weather at times this week could give way to a dry and warmer interlude at least across the South and East to start the weekend. On this run unsettled weather is also shown to return under developing Low pressure over the North before a more substantial ridge could give a spell of fine and warmer weather across the South and East later in the second week, though it may not hold for long past the term of this morning's run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a bias towards better weather in the South than the North in 14 days time. The majority of members suggest that Low pressure will reside to the North with High pressure to the South stretching various degrees of influence across at least the South of the UK in a predominantly Westerly airflow pattern by most members.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a changeable and often windy working week with showers in the North and some more prolonged rainfall in the South on occasion. Over the weekend the weather may turn set fair for many as a ridge of High pressure moves NE across the UK settling things down somewhat under light winds.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show this week as being unsettled and at times breezy with rain or showers at times. Slow moving troughs with waves along it will affect the South and SE at times with more prolonged rainfall while the North shows more showery conditions under a cool West or SW breeze.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows an unsettled week too with troughs delivering rain at times with brighter showery conditions in between. Pressure rises by the weekend and it could become warmer and more humid again in the South with the risk of further thundery rain as the troublesome trough to the South never really moves far away despite rising pressure. Then next week High pressure makes a more pronounced attack on the UK from the West with fine and dry if not overly warm conditions developing for many under chilly nights.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is less rewarding for next weekend as it maintains something of a trough down across the UK with showers at times and probably quite cool conditions. In the week leading up to that the weather is equally unsettled as the other models show with Low pressure in control with rain at times for all.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning still shows improvements as we move out of this week, through the weekend and next week but the pace of this is very slow. There is plenty of unsettled weather with increasingly windy weather this week as the pressure gradient steepens across the UK later in the week. Then a slow rise of pressure from the SE allows better weather to affect some parts over the weekend as the trough across the UK fills out. By early next week High pressure has a much better grip on the weather as it extends slowly NE with a lot of dry and fine weather for many with temperatures near average by day but cool by night.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows a growing trend to build High pressure slowly NE across the UK next week with fine and dry weather developing then as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain the theme of a very unsettled and windy spell this week but there remains suggestions that improvements in conditions could still be on the horizon for next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.5 pts followed by ECM at 86.3 and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 60.9 pts over GFS's 54.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 42.9 pts to 38.0 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to paint a very mixed picture across the UK over the coming two weeks but it's not all bad news. This week shows all models illustrating a very unsettled pattern as Low pressure areas centred around the UK amalgamate into one large complex to the NW later this week with stronger SW winds for many as a result. Rain or showers at times is likely for all and while High pressure never becomes far away from the SE the polar front lying just to the SE of the UK late in the week and for that matter this weekend it could still threaten some thundery rain at times in the South and SE as ripples run NE along it while slow improvements develop elsewhere if not overly warm conditions. It's from the weekend on in fact where divergences within the output begin to take shape with some output such as GFS developing more Low pressure near the UK next week with rain at times and eventually rather cool and windy weather while some of the other output including GEM and the much respected ECM looking much more High pressure orientated next week. So obviously more runs are needed to pin down details on how the situation may evolve around the UK after the Bank Holiday Weekend. While current thoughts on the weekend are that it shouldn't be a write off with regards to rainfall it looks far from memorable from a temperature perspective and I would suggest that some showers are possible in places too but with a lot of dry and reasonable weather in between these. My own fears are that with High pressure in some form staying in the Med next week the stalled front expected to clear the SE at the weekend may be blocked by the Med High on it's movement SE and could return more NW at times than is progged currently which would feed potentially thundery rain across the South and East at times despite relataively high pressure. Then we have to hope that GEM and ECM have things correct in their projections of High pressure extending NE across England and Wales with fine and settled conditions developing for all bringing us a quiet start to Autumn 2015 though night times could remind us of the longer darkness hours now as temperatures drop quite low and valley fogs start to become an extra ingredient to the new seasons weather.

 

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Aug 25th 2015

[Polar Maritime]

Out to the turn of the Month and the the start of Autumn, The GFS shows a slack Northerly giving cool conditions for the North with -3/-4 uppers over the Highlands giving the chance of a wintry mix over high ground and daytime temps into single figures. A week out but interesting to see all the same.

Edited August 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Man With Beard]

Things starting to take shape for the weekend ... looks like a fair chance that unsettled conditions will gradually move away from the UK as the weekend progresses. Probably some sunny weather for all at times. Chance of something hotter according to GFS and ECM too. This week though ... my apologies to anyone taking a UK holiday!

[mushymanrob]

What a difference a day makes or even 12 hours. Just a glance at the anomalies for 12z Sunday. And en passant the ECM has a quite different take on the weekend to the GFS.

 

indeed, theres disagreement now, without solid agreement over several runs they cannot be relied on . so its looking extremely uncertain.

wont bother me though, ill be in ibiza!

[BlueHedgehog074]

A peak at the models and it looks as though the upper trough in the Atlantic will remain in control for the next few days firing further Low Pressure systems from our West towards the UK. The lowest pressure being concentrated towards the North-West of the British Isles bringing additional spells of rain and showers for places on a Westerly or South-Westerly wind. Even the South-East won't escape the unsettled weather at times.

For the type of temperature ranges these Atlantic setups can bring, North-Western parts of the UK will see the coolest and windiest conditions, which those towards the South-East will see more in the way of less cooler or warmer conditions - especially during sunnier, brighter spells:

Looking towards 144 hours and although the ECMWF, GFS and UKMO show some differences, there seems to be a trend that the upper trough in the Atlantic will relax it's grip with this lifting to our North (the greens) carrying the main area of Lows away to our North-East

In response to this, all three models above essentially show some kind of ridging developing to our West or North-West around the mid-Atlantic or Greenland area (the GFS showing the latter) - this is also thanks to upstream amplification towards the North-Eastern part of Northern America with ridging close-by to the East of the UK over Mainland Europe. However, in the case of the GFS and ECMWF, this seems to allow a gap to occur for Lows to continue affecting the UK from either the North or South sandwiched between both the High Pressure systems. Depending how strong ridging to our East can hold, there is certainly possibilities for plume-like conditions to arise as Lows to our South or West bump up against the European ridging and draw up warm air Northwards from the continent. A chance of some thundery breakdowns too.

The UKMO, however, keeps things more settled with the European High Pressure system being more of a player with surface ridging across Northern UK, so not a done deal yet. Though it would perhaps be fair to say it exhibits a similar idea to the GFS where ridging to our East links up with the High Pressure to the West/North-West of the UK. There is still trends to see a build of pressure to our West/North-West along with an area of pressure to our East.

The 144 hour 500hPa and Sea Level Pressure ensemble mean from the ECMWF keeps some fairly shallow troughing over, and just to the North-West of, the UK with weak mid-Atlantic ridging. And a rather strong ridge over Mainland Europe

Further ahead, at 192 hours, and again, despite the models showing various solutions, what does seem possible is the Atlantic ridge to our West could slowly transfer Eastwards towards the UK. A chance it could pull in a cool flow from the North-West/North as it does so (GFS, ECMWF and GEM used as examples):

But, as is in the case of the GFS, would need to watch out that the troughing over the UK and to our North-East doesn't become too stubborn, as it could hold the high pressure back and lock us into a cool and unsettled pattern.

The 192 hour version of the 00Z ECMWF 500hPa and Sea Level Pressure ensemble mean does however keep the UK under influence from the Atlantic/Azores ridge. So is quite possible the GFS is being too aggressive with the UK/Eastern UK troughing.

Be interesting to see what the 12Z GFS comes out with. Already, at 144 hours, and it keeps a theme of a trough of Lows over the UK sandwiched between that ridge in the Atlantic and the strong 500mb ridge East over Europe. But it does look messy. Any real warmth as well being mostly restricted in the nearby continent:

And at 192 hours maintains an amplified ridge in the Atlantic with troughing to the East of the UK pulling in a Northerly flow:

This later gets dragged and flattened South over South-Western UK thanks to Lows breaking through from the Atlantic:

Still influential enough to keep most areas settled and dry.

The NAEFS (the 500mb anomaly one) at 240 hours keeps a weakish area of high anomalies over Southern Europe and some stronger high anomalies over towards Greenland. The UK in a 'No Mans Land' area with neither upper troughing or upper heights being a dominant feature, which would suggest any possible build of high pressure towards the UK before hand not really being that long lasting or be particularly strong.

Would seem that there would be a mixture of unsettled (particularly next few days) and less unsettled periods. Attempts for ridges of high pressure to affect the UK from either the West and/or possibly via European ridging to our East. What is certain is that it won't be cloudy with a chance of meatballs. Nor will cookies fall from the sky.

[nick sussex]

I really feel for those in the UK who are on holiday and had to suffer some dire weather recently.

 

This mornings ECM did offer a glimmer of hope on days 8 to 10 with high pressure toppling into the UK,  this evenings GFS does edge the high in eventually after anchoring low pressure near to the se.

 

Still too far out to be sure this high will actually get sufficiently east, the GEFS mean is quicker to edge the high in, the ECM mean looks okay with the high moving in from day 8.

 

The ECM is the trend you'd like to see rather than the GFS as the former looks warmer. Hopefully tonights ECM will continue with its morning trend and at least deliver something drier and warmer for the UK.

[Man With Beard]

UKMO 12Z - potential for a decent Bank Holiday after the carnage of this week, with a weak high and continental influence for many. The potential for better weather next week is very much there too - could that low to our west get cut off in a position that drags a continual southerly flow, without too much influence from Atlantic fronts? 

 

 

some troughs in the mix - probably will be weaker by Saturday but could mean sunshine at a bit of premium:

 

Edited August 24, 2015 by rjbw

[Milhouse]

The 6z ensemble mean brings the heat quite close to the UK over the weekend. Unfortunately it looks like being associated with low pressure.

 

Edited August 24, 2015 by Milhouse

[Frosty.]

Here's a chart to get one in the mood for Autumn from the Gfs 12z with -10 850's appearing in the high arctic. I think its been a generally poor/ mediocre summer away from southern/southeast England and a non existent summer in Scotland. Anyway, I've given it my best shot this summer in terms of being positive but I'm looking forward to the upcoming El Nino winter, I feel there will be exciting times and plenty on here to watch it unfold..I can't wait!

[knocker]

Even at this stage it's difficult to bring any level of certainty into the weekend weather, It's all a tad knife-edgy.

 

The anomaly 12z Sunday has the trough just the west of the UK, ridging Iceland and HP central Europe. Twenty four hours later the trough is into Scandinavia with a weak trough to the SW.

 

The surface analysis for this from the ops is okay on Sunday with a weak area of low pressure north of Scotland but on the Monday it brings a low into the south of England from Biscay. The ECM also brings a depression through over the weekend but the timing and evolution is quite different.

Charts weathherbell

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The Bank holiday weekend will give weather forecasters a nightmare at present. It certainly looks messy, but at the moment ecm has the best model output for that period at the moment. The gfs has been keen for a while to develop low pressure to the south of the Uk which deepens as it moves north . Less so on the 12z, but its certainly worth watching. Not convinced at all with pressure building from the west/southwest post 168hrs from any model, How many times have we seen that this Summer? If high pressure does develop, both ecm and gfs show a rather cold flow from the north, really not worth discussing though at this juncture    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The Bank holiday weekend will give weather forecasters a nightmare at present. It certainly looks messy, but at the moment ecm has the best model output for that period at the moment. The gfs has been keen for a while to develop low pressure to the south of the Uk which deepens as it moves north . Less so on the 12z, but its certainly worth watching. Not convinced at all with pressure building from the west/southwest post 168hrs from any model, How many times have we seen that this Summer? If high pressure does develop, both ecm and gfs show a rather cold flow from the north, really not worth discussing though at this juncture    

 

I expect everyone knows which one I hope comes off, one on the left, ECMWF

[knocker]

The ecm anomalies tonight ar the better prognosis with the trough on Sunday orientated more NE/SW and the the ridge Greenland moving east. This scenario could put the UK under the influence of HP, although not ideally positioned as the temps would be below average.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850a&runtime=2015082412&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=460

[johnholmes]

As a result of a change in the NOAA 6-10 this evening the tilt towards a north of west 500mb flow developing in the 6-10 day period is increased somewhat. Still unclear really but it is unusual for NOAA outputs to swop and change in most circumstances so if tomorrow shows a similar pattern then the odds would really swing to that pattern.

link

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Edited August 24, 2015 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

yep, thats what i thought this morning, no support for the ridging azores high the ops suggest beyond day 8.

another instance arising, have the ops picked up on something before the noaa anomaly charts? or will the anoms be proven to have a better handle on the final solution.

 

hmmm..... well there is disagreement with the anoms atm, or i should say inconsistency and the ecm is sticking to its pressure build to our west next week. could be an unusual instance of the ecm op picking up on something before the anoms.

either way its looking and feeling pretty (early) autumnal, with no sign of any late summer warmth/settled. (the current expectations for pressure rise to our west keeps it there and the uk under a weak northerly flow).

[knocker]

From where I'm sitting the Holiday weather isn't looking too bad (certainly relative to what we have been having and about to receive) although temps will be no great shakes.. The latest fax chart has a long straggling front from near NW Spain through N. France and the Baltic countries and it's on this that the GFS runs a wave Saturday night clipping Kent so not really a problem. The bigger problem is the movement of the low to the NW of Ireland us the upper trough withdraws, The GFS isn't necessarily getting this correct and any slight adjustment to this would improve matters no end. It does look as if HP next week a distinct possibiilty.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[knocker]

Brief EC32 update.

 

A general area of HP affecting the UK next week Monday to Saturday with temps below average.

 

After that until the 25th of September ( remember this only the broad brush output) no significant signal emerges except there is no deep troughing. Thus it's really a very familiar story with a zonal westerly flow, switching from NW to SW depending whether the low pressure to the NW or HP to the SW is in the ascendancy. it possible favours more of the latter but in general we are looking at the familiar N/S split with temps starting below average and then becoming average or a tad above.

 

EDIt

I see the ecm ops brings that little pertubation through the UK Saturday. I'm not sure it will amount to much.

Edited August 25, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

The EC-GFS anomaly charts this morning would be a cold fans dream in mid winter, see link below. It does look as though they are leading NOAA this time, confirmation may come this evening from NOAA. If it differes then we are in 'sitting on the fence territory' from next Monday.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[knocker]

No worries there John in a Nino winter. Wet and windy.

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO this morning shows the risk of some heavy and thundery showers for the SE during the BH weekend whilst other parts of the UK are also at risk of some heavy and potentially slow moving showers

 

 

ECM shows a cool high moving over the UK during next week

 

 

Whilst pleasant enough by day in any sunshine the nights would be chiller with the risk of fog and maybe even some frosts in rural parts of the north west

Edited August 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY AUG 25TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Further troughs of Low pressure will move North and East across the UK today and tonight followed by a more showery SW flow tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining very unsettled this week with rain at times. Perhaps somewhat drier as we move deeper into September.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern this week shows the flow continuing to stream NE across Southern Britain for much of the rest of this week edging slowly North next weekend and realigning North of the UK early next week. The by then weak flow re-strengthens later next week and moves back down to more Southerly latitudes yet again..

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure up to the NW for the remainder of the week with a frontal boundary lying close to the SE from Thursday with showers for many and the threat of more prolonged rainfall for the far South and SE for a time. Then temperatures recover a little at the weekend when shallow showery Low pressure remains in control before a gentle build of pressure from the West early next week settles things down across England and Wales for a time before unsettled weather under Atlantic Low pressure returns to all areas to end the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows a similar sequence of events over the period though the period of High pressure early next week is somewhat more dominant for a time than on it's operational brother. It's breakdown from the fine and warmer pattern for the South next week comes from the NE as High pressure recedes SW and allows cooler and showery Northerlies to spread down over the UK lasting to the end of the run when High pressure is ridged over NW Britain and lower pressure lies to the East and SE. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a bias of 80%/20% in favour of Westerly winds blowing across the UK. Not all members make this an indication of unsettled weather as a fair few show High pressure from the SW ridged towards the South with any rain from Atlantic systems more likely for the North. The 20% group indicate High pressure over all of the UK with fine if not overly warm weather for all.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a a showery SW flow for the rest of the week from tomorrow with slack pressure gradients developing for the Bank Holiday Weekend. With warm air to the SE and a frontal boundary their it looks like the threat of some heavy and thundery showers or rain at times looks a very real one dor the SE while some heavy and slow moving showers look possible elsewhere too.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning keep High pressure at arms length over the period preferring to maintain an influence of rather more unstable air across the UK. While showery troughs are shown to move East across the UK at times in a slack flow at the weekend careful attention will have to be focused on the stalled front to the SE as well as it could move back further to the NW at times.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today has backed away from it's suggestions from yesterday that High pressure could develop over the UK next week. Instead this morning's offering favours escalating conditions at the weekend from a deepening depression moving North from the SW with thundery rain then sunshine and showers looking likely in rather cool conditions for much of next week too.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks a little indecisive this morning in regard to where we move from the coming weekend. While on the face of it no deep pressure areas are shown low or high the air is slack and unstable for much of the time with showers always a possibility and while it may become warm and humid briefly in the SE at the weekend generally cooler conditions look more likely.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning still shows improvements as we move through next week but the pace of such change is agonizingly slow. This week shows the weather as before with sunshine and showers and some longer spells of rain locally before things warm up a bit in the SE at the weekend. With unstable air across the UK showers look like continuing over the Bank Holiday and for that matter much of next week too. However, with cool High pressure edging into the West and NW of the UK then showers will become more and more restricted to more Eastern and Southern areas while Northern and Western areas become largely dry but with very chilly Autumnal nights and the risk of frost and fog increasing.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows a growing trend to build High pressure North, probably just to the West of the UK leaving the UK under a weak Northerly flow and cool, gentle early Autumn conditions for most.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain the theme of a very unsettled and windy spell this week. There is little cross model agreement that improving conditions on a grand scale are likely next week now.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.9 pts and GFS at 94.8 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.8 pts followed by ECM at 86.3 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.3 pts over GFS's 55.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 43.1 pts to 37.5 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The weather patterns across the UK remain stubbornly complex and unconforming this morning if it's a prolonged and fine warm spell your after. The models refuse to release the troughing near the UK albeit under very slack synoptics with all models now showing a reluctance in allowing High pressure to make a large impact for any length of time on conditions across the UK next week. A few members do show some decent weather about then under some degree of High pressure but it never looks overly convincing. We also have a Bank Holiday Weekend approaching and while it doesn't look like a washout it looks like we are at least going to have to cater for some showers almosy anywhere and while I'm sure some will fair well and have a decent weekend others may see a fair amount of heavy thundery rain in a short space of time under any slow moving showers. Also though warm and humid in the SE to start the weekend it looks like becoming average at best temperature wise thereon with some jolly chilly nights in the North with a risk of frost especially if ECM's sequence verifies. However, despite all that there is no particularly active early Autumn storms shown likely to affect the UK over the next few weeks and it wouldn't take much more of a build of High pressure than that shown at the moment to override the projected trough dominance to deliver something much more pleasant than what's on offer this morning. So in a nustshell it's the changeable pattern as before to take us from Summer into Autumn and while nothing particularly bad is looking likely over the next few weeks I can't help but feel a little deflated on the synoptics shown as I feel they could be an awful lot better too.

 

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Aug 26th 2015

[Yarmy]

No worries there John in a Nino winter. Wet and windy.

 

That composite is not a million miles from this:

 

 

It's a bit apples and oranges because the date range is narrower and the heights are calculated for 700hPa (and it's the CFS of course) but still...

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z continues to show a cool dry Northerly flow for the turn of the Month/Season. With most places especially the North dropping to single digits, Giving the risk of frosts in the usual hollows and Glens..

Edited August 25, 2015 by Polar Maritime