Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY AUG 28TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A showery SW flow will blow across the UK today and tomorrow within the influence of Low pressure to the NW of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming drier and brighter for many especially towards the NW. A cool breeze at times with a few showers in the SE with some very cool and misty nights for many.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shown this morning indicates the flow running NE across the South of Britain for a few more days before the flow weakens and migrates away East leaving the flow disjointed and weak with the main core well North of the UK next week. The flow then rejuvenates late in the period, location uncertain but probably to the South of the UK again.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK after the weekend and maintaining influence throughout the rest of the period. The changeable pattern of late will continue for a few more days as the Low to the NW and a disturbance running NE over the South on Sunday moves away NE on Monday and sets up a cool Northerly for several days next week. The developed High to the West is then shown to drift slowly ENE into Scotland later next week and through Week 2 with a cool NE flow for much of the time over the South with a few showers while the North and West see the best of the weather with long sunny spells and dry weather but with cool and misty early Autumn nights for many.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today also shows High pressure developing West of Ireland from the end of the weekend and remaining influential to the UK from then until the end of the period. The position to the west of Ireland also means a cool North and then NE flow is likely across the UK next week before the High shifts slowly East across Scotland and into Europe cutting off the cool flow over the South and meaning light winds for all and a continuation of largely fine and dry conditions as a ridge still lies West across the UK from it at the end of the period 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an overwhelming odds in favour of fine weather likely to lie across at least the South of the UK in two weeks time as a High pressure ridge is likely to lie close to the South in 14 days time. There are some members who show more unsettled weather especially for the North and a fewer still who show Low pressure close to the South with rain at times.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows the changeable Bank Holiday Weekend under shallow Low pressure  giving way to High pressure, building over the Atlantic early next week and drifting close to NW Scotland by midweek delivering a lot of fine and rather cool weather especially by night. Daytime showers are possible towards the East and SE in the cool NE breeze.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the complex trough structure to the South of the UK in the coming days nudging up into Southern Britain for a time before drifting away East as the chilly North flow develops next week in association with High pressure to the West.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today also shows High pressure building slowly from the West next week with the chilly North flow through much of the week gradually being replaced by light and variable winds as the High moves across the UK by next weekend. A lot of dry weather would prevail with just odd showers drifting down in the flow next week before all areas become dry and less cool by next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the same path as the rest of the models in bringing High pressure into the mix positioning it to the West of the UK early next week with a cool North flow over the UK. this veers towards the NE late next week as the High inches in closer to the NW of Britain. Apart from a few showers through the week confining themselves to the East and SE later a lot of dry and fine weather is expected, best in the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning completes the set in showing High pressure becoming influential across the UK from early next week. It too shows the High settling to the West of the UK, moving in closer towards NW Britain at the end of next week before weakening and slipping to the East by Day 10 as pressure falls to the West. All this means a lot of fine, dry of somewhat cool temperatures especially by night. A few showers are possible in the SE for a while before all areas become fine, benign and less cool late in the period as the NE feed is cut off.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue their theme towards High pressure based weather developing next week from off the Atlantic.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 96.0 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 87.3 pts followed by ECM at 86.7 and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.7 pts over GFS's 54.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 43.1 pts to 37.6 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The models continue their theme of much more High pressure based weather likely to affect the UK next week and probably well beyond. This may come a little to late to benefit the Bank Holiday Weekend which still looks a little changeable with some rain in places especially on Sunday. Then it looks like a Northerly flow will develop across all areas next week, preventing warm conditions but delivering a lot of fine and sunny weather but with the risk of some showers too in the East and SE. As I indicated yesterday the biggest benefits of this pattern change will affect the NW most where after Monday mostly dry conditions will prevail thereon with some fine sunny days but with some jolly chilly nights with grass frosts and mist and fog patches possible. As we move towards next weekend many models drift the High into the NW or North of the UK with still something of a nagging and cool NE breeze across the South with isolated showers. Then looking further ahead still the models maintain a HIgh pressure based pattern with the centre then having probably migrated to the east or NE of the UK which both ECM and GFS show with perhaps the first inclination towards change shown after Day 10 as pressure falls to the West. All this of course is a long way off and there will of been a lot of fine and dry weather to have been enjoyed before we reach that point. So all in all a fine spell to come and while there are unlikely to be any record breaking high temperatures to report on there could be some jolly chilly nights for this stage of Autumn with some early grass frosts and the introduction of mist and fog patches too for some. Nevertheless it is nice to report on some nice weather for many and to take a break from chasing areas of cloud and rain around to which we have become so accustomed of late.

 

Next update from 09:00 Saturday Aug 29th 2015

[Polar Maritime]

If the GFS produced the 0Z run in the heart of winter I think a few on here would be wetting their pants. Lovely classic build of a cold high over the country followed by slow retrogression and ending in an attempted undercut.

 

Yes Ed, Ending in a cool N/Ely.

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z shows a similar theme, With the projected slack Northerly from Mon/Tue turning N/Ely by week-end. So a cool but dry week coming up for most places, With single digit daytime temps especially for the North, And the risk of isolated frosts in the usual hollows and Glens. Some pleasant days to be had in any sunshine, With some clean/clear air at times.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

The 6z shows a similar theme, With the projected slack Northerly from Mon/Tue turning N/Ely by week-end. So a cool but dry week coming up for most places, With single digit daytime temps especially for the North, And the risk of isolated frosts in the usual hollows and Glens. Some pleasant days to be had in any sunshine, With some clean/clear air at times.

I think those temps may be underdone a bit especially for the North and given that it's early September and the sun still has a lot of power in it. I would expect the range to be more 10-14C by day in the North and 14-19C in the South. Nights though could be perilously close to feezing on the ground almost anywhere given clear and still conditions.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Gibby

[Scorcher]

A very underwhelming week coming up if you're looking for anything warm- and it's amazing how often this sort of setup has repeated over the last few months. High pressure sticking out to the west has got to be one of the most frustrating things about the British climate.

 

The setup has very little going for it- okay there may be some sunshine at times, particularly first thing but we will likely end up with cold clear nights followed by early sunshine and then the usual buildup of cloud that comes with northerlies, followed by a clearing again in the evening. 

 

How is that the coldest uppers always seem to find their way to us as well? Even Iceland looks to have much warmer air next week.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Scorcher

[knocker]

By the 7th the GEFS anomaly has the ridge orientated NE/SW over the UK with trough Greenland. Thus a more SW flow over the UK with temps about average but a little above in the north.

Chart weathebell

 

new GEFS upgrade coming soon (mid-Oct) .

Edited August 28, 2015 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! As expected ,a nightmare for forecasters this bank holiday weekend for where the rain will fall in southern Britain, a little bit simpler further north. Next week shows high pressure to the west of the uk, so no late heat, a rather chilly airmass looks likely . How settled and dry next week remains in question as the main core of the High will be around 1,500 miles west of the uk , so that will allow troublesome fronts to move around that high and down across the uk. The charts Im showing tonight are up to T+168hrs , obviously subject to change.....    

[knocker]

For a couple of days now some of the anomalies have been indicating that in around a weeks time the HP situated to our west will slip quietly SE thus backing the surface wind into a more favourable direction. This mornings gfs enacts this scenario bringing very pleasant conditions and above average temps for the second week of September. Now I'm not for a moment taking one run, days down the line, seriously but this is a possibility and maybe, just maybe, the reports of the end of summer were greatly exaggerated.

[Captain Shortwave]

A very underwhelming week coming up if you're looking for anything warm- and it's amazing how often this sort of setup has repeated over the last few months. High pressure sticking out to the west has got to be one of the most frustrating things about the British climate.

 

The setup has very little going for it- okay there may be some sunshine at times, particularly first thing but we will likely end up with cold clear nights followed by early sunshine and then the usual buildup of cloud that comes with northerlies, followed by a clearing again in the evening. 

 

How is that the coldest uppers always seem to find their way to us as well? Even Iceland looks to have much warmer air next week.

The set up currently being shown only really briefly delivers decent sunshine during the winter months as the sun strength is low enough to prevent cloud building up. It wouldn't be a bad winter set up with frost and fog, also wintry showers in the east.

Alas back on topic, being early September the synoptics would likely bring a lot of day time infill with the added risk of systems drifting down the north sea to bring rain or showers in the east at times. The best weather will be reserved for those near the channel or Irish sea coastlines.

The first week of September looks fairly dry and cool, sunshine amounts will be more difficult to determine at this point and unlike Knocker above, I feel unconvinced at the eastwards movement of the high, especially as the models tend to slowly drift the pattern eastwards in the medium range anyway when in reality the longwave pattern might be a lot more sluggish.

[knocker]

Cs as I'm in pedantic mode this morning I did suggest south east movement not east.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO and ECM this morning the high isn't going to push east as quickly as initially thought as a result well be left with a north or north easterly flow for longer keeping temps on lower than average by day but nights will be especially chilly and very close to a frost in some rural spots

 

 

Also need to keep an eye on the low east of the UK early Wednesday could be a noticeable breeze / wind down the east coast 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2015 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Yes agreed SS the ecm in particular has it quite breezy down the east coast but the latest fax chart is not so keen

 

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY AUG 29TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak SW flow covers the UK today with slack pressure developing over the South as a warm front edges North into Southern Britain later tonight and tomorrow..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming drier and brighter for many especially towards the NW. A cool breeze at times with a few showers in the SE with some very cool and misty nights for many.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shown this morning indicates the flow running NE across the South of Britain for a few more days before the flow weakens and migrates away East leaving the flow split weak and North and South of the UK. It then strengthens late in the period to blow West to east just to the North of Scotland later in Week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK after the weekend and maintaining influence throughout the rest of the period. Low pressure to the East and SE will aid the setup of a cool Northerly flow across the UK next week with jolly chilly nights and sunny spells by day with just a few showers towards the East and SE. The High pressure to the west is shown to edge closer day by day eventually cutting off the cool northerly feed and replacing it with clam conditions in the South. As a result it would become warmer by day and night but with some night fog patches possible. The end of the period sees the High slipping SE but maintaining fine weather across the South while the North becomes breezier under a Westerly flow with some Atlantic rain creeping in at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today also shows High pressure developing West of Ireland from the end of the weekend and remaining influential to the UK from then until almost the end of the period. The positioning of the High in the second week is further to the North sitting across the UK for a time before slipping to the East late on and allowing a more general breakdown in conditions with rain at times to move in from the Atlantic by the end of the period.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a fairly even split on conditions in two weeks time with almost half still showing some High pressure influence across the South from a centre to the South, SE or SW while the threat of rain and Atlantic winds looks greater this morning for the North and NW in particular. 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool week across the British Isles with the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West of Scotland and Low pressure over Germany and the continent in general. A NNE flow across the UK should deliver a lot of fine and cool weather with jolly chilly nights but some showers are possible in the East and South at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a complex and slow moving warm front across the South of the UK over the coming 72 hours, edging slowly NW then east by Tuesday of next week. Pulses of heavy and thundery rain within it's proximity look probable before the whole system moves away east and allows the setup of a cold northerly flow and with Low pressure quite close to the East for a time further showers are possible but with High pressure to the NW the West and NW in general will become dry if quite cool.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK in the coming days but with Low pressure moving NE across the far SE over the coming days with some thundery rain at times in the South and East. Thereafter the High to the West is shown to agonizingly creep closer in to the west of the UK, never quite making it as a cool North or NE flow across Central and SE Britain is maintained.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme with High pressure inching in from the west towards Scotland later in the coming week with the frontal system in the SE to start clearing East fairly early in the period to leave a cool NNE flow for the remainder of the week for most parts.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure influence across the UK dominant throughout this morning's run with the positioning always I'm afraid too far West into the Atlantic to give the very best conditions across the UK. For the next few days we have to await the exit of a stubbornly slow moving frontal trough from the SE early next week then all areas fall under the influence of a cool Northerly feed with bright days and the odd shower in the East. Then as a ridge from the High slips South the weather will be dry for all and with time the cool North wind supply is cut off and rather cloudy Atlantic winds but dry weather looks like affecting the UK as they round the Northern flank of the High and move down over the UK in a NW flow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from this morning continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue their theme towards High pressure based weather developing next week from off the Atlantic. 

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 95.9 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 87.1 pts followed by ECM at 86.6 and GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.0 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 43.1 pts to 36.6 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS We have universal support from the models today that a pattern change is finally under way and the NW/SE split in the weather we have seen what seems endlessly of late is disappearing or being reversed for a time at least. Low pressure to the NW is finally being displaced by a rise of pressure over the Eastern Atlantic and while a thundery Low to the SE at first and Low pressure to the East later will not be beneficial to the UK improvements for the NW of the UK especially are going to be quite marked this week. On the negative side the positioning of the High is far from ideal from a UK perspective as it is too far West and aids a very chilly Northerly flow across the UK suppressing temperatures and allowing some daytime showers to affect the East and SE for some considerable while into next week. In the West and NW the best weather will be achieved with sunny days but with jolly chilly nights with rural frosts and mist patches. As we then look further forwards into the second week conditions may improve further with the Northerly flow probably cut off as the High migrates East across the UK delivering rather warmer uppers across the UK with warmer days and nights and still relatively dry conditions for all. In the far reaches of GFS today and hinted at within the clusters a greater chance of the Atlantic coming back into at least the North and West of the UK is shown but that is a long way off and all of the UK could at least see a period of almost totally dry conditions and while temperatures may not be nothing to write home about the farmers's harvest should be able to be completed within the first half of September without too much hindrance from the weather.

 

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Aug 30th 2015

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly this morning is not quite as keen as the GEFS to move the HP SE but rather favours just east. This tends to move the HP cell to be over the UK, that is until the ext period when it does slip south backing the wind and improving the temps to just above average.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[summer blizzard]

High resolution out to the 8th now and while nice and sunny, temperatures overall look average to cool.

[summer blizzard]

GFS has the Atlantic winning out. GEM has a raging northerly on the way..

 

[stodge]

Evening all

 

Tonight's ECM for T+192:

 

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015082912/ECM1-192.GIF?29-0

 

It's all been said by Martin and others - HP exactly where fans of warmth wouldn't want it and a gentle NE'ly blowing down the country.

 

GFS very similar:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015082912/gfs-0-192.png?12

 

Perhaps the HP marginally further south.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015082912/gem-0-192.png?12

 

GEM at the same time - interesting to note the active LP systems (ex-tropical features ?) helping to "prop up" the HP in its more NW'ly location.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS has the Atlantic winning out. GEM has a pointless raging northerly on the way..

 

Corrected that for you. Just because it will make things unnecessarily chilly for the time of year. That's what's annoying about September. Can be chilly but not cold enough for anything interesting apart from the odd wintry shower and frosts in the most prone highlands.

Anyway back on topic, a drier week ahead but cool which will get the CET off too a disappointingly low start. But September is pretty traditional for some sort of HP influence. Not great IMO that such mid Atlantic heights are appearing now. Probably means nothing but always a chance the wrong pattern will set in for Snow fans come early winter at least. But it may not though it would be our luck. Nonetheless September is probably one of the quietest months of the year. Wouldn't be surprised to see heights potentially migrate over us or to the east eventually. Seems easier for high pressure to do this outside the core summer months.

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts support totally the idea of a blocked scenario. Almost a cold lovers delight in mid winter. Words like blocking and meridional would be bandied about.

NOAA link, below and not shown but ECMWF-GFS was along similar lines this morning.Another case of them leading NOAA, this is probably about the 4th time this has happened since last autumn. With a 'new' GFS to come the accuracy of that model in its various guises will be something all will hope is up to ECMWF at least.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Edited August 29, 2015 by johnholmes

[legritter]

I,V spent some free time today catching up with the charts  and Data and it does look at present we could see a quiet start to Autumn ,not model related but just helped my 93 yr old mother inlaw back to better health and now eating us out of home [great to see ] we will now get a daily weather forecast from her and will tell me all the info from the sun and express !and of course will let us know what sort of winter is on the way who needs models .

some very interesting weather charts across our northern hemisphere at present ,cheers gang .

[knocker]

At midnight the warm front Dorset to Norfolk. The Meto has this intermittent rain belt moving slowly north during the day with perhaps brighter spells in the SE late on and maybe temps reaching 24C  Still retaining that irritating low north of Scotland. The GFS perhaps moves the rain belt a little further north. N.B. PW doesn't equate to rainfall amounts which will probably be quite small.

 

What is interesting this morning is the GFS take on the movement of the wave depression. From 12z Monday it wings it up the North Sea from Belgium to SW of Oslo deepening it to 996mb. After a brief pause it spends the rest of the week bringing it back again and on Saturday it's 1016mb Netherlands. Could be briefly quite gusty down the east coast for a while the beginning of the week.

Chart weatherbell

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY AUG 30TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will lie across Southern England today and tonight with a complex if shallow Low pressure forming along it tomorrow before the whole system slowly edges away East later

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming drier and brighter for many especially towards the NW. A cool breeze at times with a few showers in the SE with some very cool and misty nights for many.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shown this morning shows a very complex pattern to the flow over the coming two weeks. The current SW to NE flow across the South weakens in the coming days with the main thrust of the flow well to the North of the UK later this week. Complexities arise thereafter with a potentially strong flow over the Atlantic split North or South of the UK due to higher pressure to the North or NE.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure developing to the West of the UK before moving to the North and NE of the UK later. The thundery rain of today and tomorrow across the South and SE should give way to showers on Tuesday as the Low responsible for the rain drifts NE into the North Sea  and deepens. This then remains low moving for some time before it fills and drifts back South keeping the South always at risk from showers while the North remains locked under High pressure with fine conditions. It looks like becoming cool everywhere in a North then NE breeze. Week 2 still keeps the best weather over the North while the South remains at risk from showers reinforced by further Low pressure to the SW and South. Then right at the end of the run changeable conditions in a return to Westerly breezes affects all areas. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows virtually the same pattern as the operational through the coming week with North is best for the driest and brightest weather while the East and South remain plagued by Low pressure just to the East and SE with cool breezes and showers at times. It differs from next weekend though as the Atlantic becomes influential across all areas again as Low pressure fills the void left from this weeks filling Low pressure and brings rain and showers to all areas again. It will feel cool for much of the time especially at night and in the NW through Week 1 closest to High pressure to the North and West.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a fairly even split again with the UK lying either under a ridge between High pressure to the NE and SW or a more direct westerly flow under Low pressure to the North. 15% of members show High pressure across the UK with fine and warm conditions as a result. 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool week across the British Isles with the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West or NW of Scotland and Low pressure over Germany and the continent in general. A NNE flow across the UK should deliver a lot of fine and cool weather with jolly chilly nights but some showers are possible in the East and South at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning replicate the raw data fairly well this morning with the reluctance to push Low pressure to the East of the UK far enough away to allow the influence of High pressure to the West and NW. As a result a cool NNE flow will develop early in the week and last through to the weekend with cool and breezy weather with some showers in the East and South with some very cool nights in the clearer NW.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM too today fails to show the High pressure zone forming to the West any chance of ridging across the UK as Low pressure remains stubbornly anchored across the North Sea and even gains support from a new incursion from the North later next weekend to keep cool and showery conditions across most areas over most of the period with a brisk breeze blowing from a Northerly sector only becoming replaced by SE winds and falling pressure to the SW late in the period as rain moves in from that direction then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme to UKMO with a weaker area of Low pressure across mainland Europe. It allows the High to the West to inch towards the UK through the week but insufficient to prevent northerly winds being maintained across the UK with showers more and more confined to the SE by next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning shows a halfway house between GFS and UKMO this week with the slow rise of pressure indicated through the week but not before Low pressure over the North Sea over the midweek period gives some cool, breezy and showery weather for many. The High to the West then migrates to the NE and settles North of Scotland veering winds to the East across the South still with the risk of showers feeding across from nearby Europe in the SE. At the end of the run pressure falls to the SW too and Southern Britain could be attacked by more wind and rain from the South or SW soon after the end of the period. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from this morning continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time though there are suggestions of a slight weakening of the pressure pattern by around that time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have lessened their theme towards High pressure based weather developing next week from off the Atlantic.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 95.9 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.8 pts followed by ECM at 86.3 and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.6 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 42.0 pts to 35.9 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS Today's output is split with a worrying half of the output from GFS (both operational and control runs) along with GEM showing a deep Low over the North Sea blocked through this week and preventing much interest for many from High pressure to the West maintaining a cool Northerly flow with showers for much of the time. However, both the big powerhouses of UKMO and ECM which UKMO interestingly has been outperforming ECM of late at 5 days range shows a more modified area of Low pressure over Northern Europe allowing the High to make some progress into the West and North of the UK later in the week. Once again I expect short term forecast changes in the weather to occur again this week as the hemispheric pressure patterns continue to be somewhat unusual and stubbornly misbehaving of late. 

 

So in weather terms as I quoted in my reports midweek my feeling then was we would have trouble over this weekend from the frontal boundary to the SE and this has proven to be the case with energy continuing to run NE along it over the coming 24-48hrs affecting the South and East before forming a closed Low centre near the SE which moves NNE into Denmark by Tuesday. From that point on there are differences between the two groups of output with the GFS camp delivering the UK a cool northerly flow all week and into next weekend with showers a risk for all areas at times. In the Euro's camp a much more open area of Low pressure to the East allows higher pressure to the West to bear some influence for many with dry and bright weather with just a few showers towards the East along with lighter but equally cool winds. Then longer term we see various evolutions, all of which are credible given the pattern we have but none that can be taken too seriously at this range. So in a very complex nutshell my best stab at the forecast for the next 10-14 days is North and West being best with sunshine and dry weather but with jolly cool nights and none too warm days while the South and East while also seeing dry, cool and fine weather at times are at greatest risk of showers from pressure being low over the nearby continent.

 

Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 31st 2015

[carinthian]

Really interesting watching developments today along the (5000k waving front) as the boundary between the locked record continental heat to the south and the cooler maritime air mass to the north. I think lots of fun and games over the coming days watching how this lot pans out. Could produce some dramatic weatherand changes along this evolution zone and later into continental Europe.

 C

[knocker]

The anomalies this morning have the ridging over the UK thus transferring the surface high cell further east. In the extended period this tends to break down gradually as the trough to the NW comes into play a little more and the Azores HP takes up it's usual position to the SW. This introduces a more westerly flow but also temps a little above average. This is pretty much what the EC32 is indicating for this period.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 30, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a gradual change to more settled and warmer conditions as scandi/azores high(s) link up for a time and temperatures by day climb into the low 20's celsius but that's still some way off, in the week ahead it looks autumnal with a cool and breezy Northerly flow which strengthens for a while in the far e/ne bringing a mixture of sunshine and showers after tomorrow's persistent rain across southern Britain. Most of the showers from Tuesday until next weekend are down the north sea coast and across southeast England, most areas look like eventually becoming fine with sunny spells through the week ahead but with chilly nights where skies clear and winds fall light with a risk of local slight frosts, especially in northern rural areas as the high out to the west/northwest slowly drifts east, by week 2 the high is to the NE of the UK as a blocking feature with more chance of unsettled weather spreading up from France than reaching us from the Atlantic. Anyway, the 6z turns into a good run and for northern Britain which has had a shockingly poor summer, the 6z shows some welcome pleasantly warm and fine weather. I think the 6z looks quite realistic through low res having just read the latest MO update.

Edited August 30, 2015 by Frosty.