Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->

[knocker]

After running with a fresh SE flow for three days the gfs is still looking at pushing a slack area of low pressure north next Thursday. This looked a possibility on yesterdays evening's anomaly. Not that I'm suggesting this will be the outcome at this stage. This the gives way to another high cell from the south west with the jet fragmented.

Chart weatherbell

 

 

Edited September 24, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

High pressure becoming the dominant feature over the weekend and into next week some cold mornings with the chance of some mist but by early afternoon temps should be in the high teens maybe even low 20's

 

 

ECM shows high pressure in charge from Saturday till at least day 10

 

[knocker]

The ecm this morning keeps the LP in the Biscay area thus the HP in charge and low pressure to the east  blocks any eastward movement of this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 24TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will clear SE England this morning followed by a showery Westerly flow weakening later today and tonight as High pressure builds from the South and SW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow migrating to the NW of the UK over the next 24-48hrs as pressure builds across the UK from the South or SW. It persists to the NW for a good week or so before breaking up into a more discreet pattern through the second week but still staying largely to the NW of the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show High pressure building strongly across the UK in the next few days and then on into Northern Europe. Once there it holds a ridge back across the UK for a while maintaining fine and settled weather. However, an easterly flow is shown to develop across the South later next week with a fall of pressure from the SE and South with some showery rain breaking out. The rest of the run is a little more changeable but pressure recovers somewhat again later with a lot of fine weather still around in 14 days time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar to it's operational brother today with fine and dry conditions dominant through the period but with a period mid run when High pressure relaxes away somewhat for a time to allow some occasional showery rain to affect the UK in slack winds for a time before we end up back where we started with High pressure reasserting itself across the UK.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show rather less emphasis on Low pressure at Day 14 with the most likely scenario of Low pressure to the NW and High to the South maintaining a weak Westerly bias with rain at times most likely towards the North and NW.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving across the UK over the weekend and then over towards northern Germany while maintaining a ridge back across the UK maintaining fine and dry weather for all away from the far NW until midweek at least.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning illustrate the build of High pressue well with fine and settled conditions developing across the UK from tomorrow and lasting through to the end of the period as the High slowly migrates to the east next week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM this morning shows the same High pressure area crossing the UK and away into Northern Europe next week maintaining a ridge back West across northern areas while an Easterly flow developing across Southern Britain with slowly falling pressure later, sufficient enough to support the development of showers later in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure straddled across the UK all the way today with the main centre moving across into Europe maintaining a strong ridge back West over Northern Britain and the Eastern Atlantic later next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning has backed off somewhat from it's retrogression pattern of yesterday maintaining High pressure close to the UK throughout the run today. It drifts off to the east early next week before reasserting itself close to northern Britain late in the run. All this just means a maintained pattern of fine and settled weather for all of the UK with rain if any at all restricted to the far ends of the UK both NW and SE very briefly.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too shows High pressure stretched across the UK with almost universal support for fine and dry early Autumn weather with fine warm days and cool misty nights.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite restrictive in nature. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM and UKMO lead at 86.3 pts over GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS All indications still look good for a sustained period of fine anticyclonic weather moving over the UK from 24-48hrs time and then largely remaining in place for at least a week and maybe two Today's showery Westerly flow is probably the last day that any risk of rain exists for the South for at least aweek as all models show High pressure building North and NE across the UK over the weekend and on into Northern Europe. Once there it is scheduled to maintain a strong ridge back across the UK with fine and dry weather for all as a result. The air should be reasonably dry so sunshine amounts should be quite generous for many but cool nights could generate some night and morning mist and fog patches which may prove slow to clear for a few. Later next week there is some suggestion that a breezier period of east winds develops across the South with GFS still showing a breakdown from this scenario to showers, at first over the South then later for all but most output keep any showers just off shore towards our continental neighbours while we stay largely fine and probably warm by day. ECM has been suggesting that retrogression of the High back across the UK and away to the NW was likely in the latter stages of the 10 day period yesterday but this theme has been dropped this morning, backed up by it's mean data. So with little indication of a desire from any model to change the pattern quickly it looks like we can look forward to a fine mid Autumn spell as we enter October with some warmth and sunshine to be felt for many by day but as the days continue to shorten we muct be mindful that mist and fog and it's slow clearance could be an issue which if verified would change the complexion of weather felt at the surface immensely. Nevertheless, rainfall amounts and any strong winds should be low or maybe non-existent for most parts of the UK over the next two weeks if most of the output this morning verifies as shown.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

The worse chart of the day today as yesterday goes to the GEM +240 hr chart which is hardly that bad to be honest but does show pressure having fallen away sufficiently across the UK following the fine spell, enough to promote showery rain at times for all.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

Today's best chart goes to the ECM model for 10 days too showing a stark contrast from GEM at that time. This chart is liked by me as it comes on the back of an already week long fine High pressure based spell and with High pressure positioned close to the North as such would likely deliver many more days of fine and settled weather nationally for some considerable time thereafter.

 

Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 25th 2015

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly this morning still solid behind the HP and into the ext period.

 

[knocker]

The GEFS (P) looking hunky dory as well. Could be a period above average temps, particularly the NW, but as always the devil is in the detail.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

[knocker]

Ida has just been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

 

 

[Zenarcher]

Daily comparison using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.
 
24 Hours Friday (JMA)
Low pressure sits over Northern Scotland as we start to see high pressure move in from the South West.

 

48 Hours Saturday (GEM)

High pressure of 1025mb sits over the UK as a low pressure system develops to the South West of Iceland.

 

72 Hours Sunday (FIM)

High pressure still remains over the UK and gains some strength up to 1030mb as a large low pressure system deepens to the South East of Greenland.

 

96 Hours Monday (GFS)

The high pressure continues to gain strength up to 1035mb now as we see another low pressure system form in the Atlantic.

 

120 Hours Tuesday (ECM)

The low pressure system moves North towards Iceland the high pressure over the UK moves East slightly but still continues to gain some strength.

 

144 Hours Wednesday (ECM)

High pressure fills into the Atlantic as the high pressure over the UK remains.

 

168 Hours Thursday (NASA)

The high pressure starts to make a shift North and still covers the UK.

 

192 Hours Friday (CFS)

The high pressure still sits over the Northern parts.

 

216 & 240 Hours Saturday and Sunday (CFS & GFS)

High pressure is expected to still remain over or at least close to the UK. Some settled weather on the way for the rest of this month as high pressure will be mainly in control even into the first few days of October.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Following the slack Easterly, Some very warm air shows to push North into the 1st weekend of the new Month.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM shows a very intense anticyclone covering the UK and northern Europe.

 

Unlike the UKMO and GFS no real cold pool develops and heads towards the UK, under light winds conditions would feel very pleasant and potentially warm/very warm in any sunny spells as 850s remain in double figures for a good part of the UK. We still need to get agreement though on any cold pooling and where into Europe this goes.

[phil nw.]

Following the slack Easterly, Some very warm air shows to push North into the 1st weekend of the new Month.

Looks like that block is going nowhere fast PM.

GFS and ECM seem as solid as the high this evening.The Atlantic hitting a brick wall next week.

 

 

the jet diverted well north right through to month end and beyond.The GFS mean still shows the high very much in place at day 10.

 

so some pleasant afternoon sunshine is quite possible with less cloud likely with that drift off the continent,

The weather though could feel quite different under any lingering overnight fog.

On the whole though a dry and quiet mid-Autumn spell looks on the cards for at least the next 10 days.

[knocker]

the GEFS anomaly tonight is coming around to the HP further west and apart from the shallow low way to the SW nary a trough in sight. And as cs mentioned above the surface HP in the right place could lead to some interesting temps and this time the further west may be the better. Even NW Scotland.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited September 24, 2015 by knocker

[reef]

I'm not liking the trend of this high pressure to be located further to the North and east as time goes on. At this time of the year if we're dragging in a south-easterly or easterly feed then its quite likely cloud could come into the equation and turn a rather nice combination of cool clear nights and warm sunny days into cloudy, damp and drizzly weather with little variation in temperature.

 

A chart like this for example could be very poor away from extreme western areas and Scotland closer to the centre of the high. For much of England it would be pretty grim:

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150924/12/144/h500slp.png

 

The ECM is a little more promising at the same timeframe, but still persists with an easterly flow though much slacker.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All. The settled spell is well underway and pressure is rising strongly. Here now a 1017mbs and rising fast!  Mellow mists and fruitfulness as we enter October along with some stunning and beautiful flora and fauna which is very evieident here! Settled then from this weekend , Scotland will be Lush for good weather, as we move to mid week a Strong Easterly looks likely over southern Uk. How cold is the flow from the East remains in Question.....Ecm shows the warmer option. Gfs shows the colder flow....At the very unreliable timeframe at T+240 hrs  ecm shows a very cold shot coming down from the north, Gfs is quite the opposite....    

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at both the 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA tonight (the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day ones) and they continue to agree with areas of High Pressure hanging around the UK area with some Western Atlantic troughing. This troughing of which looking as though it won't have enough power to influence the UK much with pressure looking as though it could generally stay quite high over the UK. A less wet and disturbed spell certainly looking the case and providing High Pressure doesn't drift too far North and West (personally I feel the 12Z ECMWF is being too eager with the retrogression of High Pressure in the Atlantic towards the end of it run) then it should feel quite warm at times in sunny spells. 

 

 

The 6 to 10 day chart above (one to left) has some backing from the the ECMWF 6 to 10 day mean (chart to the left below), while the 6 to 10 day GFS mean (chart to the right below from same image) pushes the ridging and High Pressure far enough East into Scandinavia to allow troughing to extend towards the UK from the main Western Greenland trough. 

 

Even though out of all the anomaly charts used the GFS is the only one to show this, it probably can't be ruled out. Not only are the above scenarios 6 to 14 days away, it seems like a plausible solution (always that risk of Lows trying to breaking back through from the West when High Pressure starts drifting a little too far East) and shows the sustainability of pressure staying high over the UK being uncertain, despite the fact that High Pressure may never be too far away. 

 

Having said that, seeing a more settled spell developing with High Pressure migrating over, and just to the East/North-East of, the UK, does looks certain. 

 

 

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

Just got too keep an eye on what the UKMO is showing because the low(which is quite deep on both the ECM and GFS runs does get closer to the UK than the other runs so any fronts could very well hit the more North Western areas but apart from that, the outlook still looks settled and dry and potentially turning quite a bit warmer. 

 

Still uncertain on the exact positioning of the high after the weekend but there is increasing confidence that the temps could rise a little bit more after the weekend especially if we pull in more of a SE'ly flow into the UK. 

[ANYWEATHER]

A very high of Shannon Entropy on tonghts runs ......   

[johnholmes]

but not on the  anomaly charts, they are much more reliable, especially with NOAA's version especially if it is similar over consecutive days. It has been showing similar patterns for 3 days or so. Thus it is far more likely than the 4x output per day from GFS.

links as usual below

NOAA 6-10 and 8-14

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

and ECMWF-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

In my view after many years of daily watching these charts I would be very surprised if the GFS  prediction was more correct than either NOAA 6-10 or ECMWF ideas.

Edited September 24, 2015 by johnholmes

[knocker]

The GEFS and ecm anomalies at day ten are not synonymous. Although the GEFS has moved the HP west the ecm has gone into full regression mode which portends the return of the westerly flow trapped between the LP and HP in the ext period. NOAA isn't adopting the ecm position so hanging fire on that for the moment.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited September 24, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS is holding on to the cool slack Easterly flow into the 1st week of the new Month.

[knocker]

A brief look at the latest EC32 update

 

Up until Friday the 2nd October it has the HP cell in situ over the UK. Then begins a fairly rapid transition with the upper ridge weakening and retrogressing west so that by Wednesday the 7th the surface HP is away to the SW with a weak area of LP around Iceland. Result a westerly flow over the UK with temps around average. Thereafter, although no strong signals in the output I have access too, this remains the scenario up to the 25th, with the trough to the NW slowly attaining the upper hand so basically we are looking at increasing unsettled weather via the Atlantic, particularly the NW, interspersed with better spells. In short quite Autumnal.

 

So we are looking at about eleven days of settled HP dominance which last nights ecm anomaly was also hinting at.

Edited September 25, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm ops run this morning is following the route indicated by the anomaly next week. The HP cell starts off to the east and slowly moves west bringing some quite warm temps during the journey before ending with a cold plunge. There i've said it but now it will be cosigned to the swear filter.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Oh and you can see where the gfs is coming from with these fresh easterlies by a quick look at the anomaly. Low pressure pushing north creating a squeeze.

Edited September 25, 2015 by knocker

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 25TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will continue to rise across the UK today and tomorrow with an anticyclone developing over Southern Britain with a weak warm front affecting the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled after this week with sunny spells and mist and fog by night.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to remain well to the NW of the UK over the coming week or so where it blows NE across Iceland quite strongly. Later in the period the flow becomes disjointed and un-clear in location as pressure areas become more complex.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to run with High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East and NE over the next week. This eventually leads to a freshening Easterly flow across the South of the UK with increased stability as well and likely to produce showery rain at times to break out across the South later next week. This is then the forerunner of a more cyclonic spell of weather with increasing amounts of rain and showers for all areas but more pronounced across Southern parts than elsewhere.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar pattern with 4-5 days of quiet settled weather which persists longer in the North while Southern areas see a pool of more unstable air move NW late next week with some showers. This then culminates in more changeable weather for all under slack pressure which later evolves into a chilly cyclonic Northerly as Low pressure slips South or SE down the North Sea with rising pressure again in it's wake.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning continue to show quite mixed messages but there is a bias towards High pressure lying close to the UK in one shape or form with a 80%/20% favour of this over anything more unsettled.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure close to the UK over the next 6 days gradually transferring East or NE across us over the coming days and then back west towards Scotland later next week with fine weather for all areas looking likely but with a nagging Easterly breeze developing in the South from early next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure in control of the UK weather for the duration of it's run parked just to the East or NE with a strong ridge across the UK with fine and settled weather for most if not all of the UK as a result.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure dominating throughout as it first sets up shop to the east or NE over the coming days before moving back West to Scotland early next week. Then over the period leading up to next weekend the High slips South to Southern England maintaining fine and settled conditions here while the North sees a West or SW flow developing with increasing cloud and eventually some rain in places.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows High pressure ridging across the UK over the coming days and then persisting in one shape or another throughout next week maintaining a lot of dry and fine weather with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning completes the set and shows High pressure close to or over the UK from now until the end of next week at least. A period of blustery east winds may affect the South for a time next week but it should stay largely dry. Later in the run and most likely next weekend pressure is shown to fall and low pressure troughs over the Atlantic look like making their move NE into the UK with a freshening SE breeze.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night too showed High pressure having migrated slightly West of the UK maintaining mostly fine weather for many but perhaps introducing the risk of cloud and rain in the North as weak troughs round the High moving SE across Scotland.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite unclear in nature.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM again ties with UKMO at 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM and UKMO lead at 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.9 pts to 33.6 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure is still very much the commanding force affecting the UK weather over the coming two weeks. Almost without exception High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK in the coming day or two before settling down to the NE of the UK but maintaining a strong ridge back across Britain. The only fly in the ointment is the risk of cloud and rain in the extreme NW in the next few days and also the faint suggestion that still exists this morning that a freshening Easterly flow across the South next week could have enough instability within it to promote a few showers, though this looks less likely from this morning's output than existed yesterday. What it will have the effect of is to reduce the risk of overnight fog and touches of frost that may affect the North next week under the axis of the ridge. All areas will see a lot of fine and dry conditions and there should be plenty of warm sunshine especially in the afternoons and in the West of the UK. then looking forward there is still mixed messages on whether the HIgh maintains it's grip out to the end of the second week too or whether it declines into more unsettled and cyclonic conditions hinted at from both GFS and latterly ECM. It all looks a little uncertain at the moment so I will not enlarge on it this morning and just summarise that the UK looks like settling into a sustained period of fine and settled weather with day to day changes restricted to just varying amounts of cloud and wind which would also affect amounts of overnight fog and frost that is possible with all places having a good chance of some warm sunshine each afternoon.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

 

Unlikely to verify as shown but my eye was drawn to this chart from the GFS Control Run as the worse chart of the day as this would dip the UK deep into Autumn with a cold and blustery North and NW wind with below average temperatures and rain or showers for much of the UK.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif

 

I like this chart as it's a week away and should follow what would of already been a sustained spell of fine and settled High pressure based conditions which look like being maintained for a considerable time thereafter if that chart evolves as shown.

 

Next update from 09:00 Saturday Sep 26th 2015

Edited September 25, 2015 by Gibby

[ANYWEATHER]

If gfs predictions for the middle of next week, come to fruition , its going to feel rather chilly in that keen easterly wind for southern Britain. Just look how cold the dewpoints are for mid-afternoon on Wednesday

[Frosty.]

High pressure is set to dominate the next week to ten days with a large area of high pressure covering the uk. The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the high becoming centred slap bang over the uk for a considerable period before it slowly drifts west and w/c 5th october shows pressure falling but before that we are looking at a lovely spell of quiet anticyclonic autumn weather with plenty of warm sunshine by day and cool, clear nights being the recipe for mist and fog patches to form but they should disperse during the mornings with warm and sunny afternoons and evenings.