Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly this morning has the high in situ until Sunday the 4th when the retreat west begins eventually bringing a W/SW airflow on the southern flank of a low pressure area Greenland/Iceland

 

[Frosty.]

Charts like these from the Gfs 6z make me wish it was winter with high pressure to the north of the uk and a long draw easterly, in winter these charts would probably mean snow showers and sharp frosts. If the 6z is right it's going to become cool and cloudy later next week with showery rain.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Frosty.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A easterly flow now with SSTs were they are is just a boring cloud cool fest! WHY would you want that???? 

 

Would you not rather have a high slap bang over you with crisp Autumn mornings and some beautiful late Autumn sunshine?

[Frosty.]

A easterly flow now with SSTs were they are is just a boring cloud cool fest! WHY would you want that???? 

 

Would you not rather have a high slap bang over you with crisp Autumn mornings and some beautiful late Autumn sunshine?

I don't know if your post was regarding mine about the 6z but just to be clear, I don't want what the 6z is showing later next week, I want it to be fine and sunny just as you do. I was just imagining how good it would be in winter with charts like I showed with high pressure to the north and an easterly all the way from eastern Europe / Russia.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

good  afternoon  looking at the models  make  the  most of the sunny weather  from  sept26  -sept 30  after  its start to look a bit unstteled   and even looking into fantasy world  its looking a bit damp

[Zenarcher]

Daily comparison using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.

 

24 Hours Saturday (ICON)

High pressure of 1025mb sits over the UK while a low pressure system to the South West of Iceland forms.

 

48 Hours Sunday (GEM)

1025mb stretches over most of the UK and Ireland at this point while parts of England and Wales get 1030mb. The low pressure system now deepens to the South East of Greenland.

 

72 Hours Monday (JMA)

1030mb covers all over the UK and Ireland now, while Eastern parts start to get 1035mb. Another low pressure system forms in the Atlantic.

 

96 Hours Tuesday (NASA)

High pressure remains over the UK and Ireland as it still continues to gain strength. There seems to be a bit of a disagreement among the models over where the low pressure system will go most place it to the South West of Iceland however there's a chance it could end up to the North of Iceland instead.

 

120 Hours Wednesday (UKMO)

High pressure now starts to shift West into the Atlantic.

 

144 Hours Thursday (UKMO)

The high pressure has shifted further North West.

 

168 Hours Friday (ECM)

High pressure continues to remain in the same place and still looks to stay strong at this point.

 

192 Hours Saturday (ECM)

Once again the high pressure remains in the same place with no signs of it shifting yet however it does start to weaken.

 

216 & 240 Hours Sunday and Monday (CMA & GFS)

The high pressure weakens quickly and moves into the Atlantic

 

 

The trend continues for a settled spell of weather to last at least until the 3rd of October.

[bluearmy]

If the NH is slowly setting up a pattern for winter then I'm seeing some interesting building blocks from a wintry perspective.

[knocker]

If the NH is slowly setting up a pattern for winter then I'm seeing some interesting building blocks from a wintry perspective.

 

Arh..building blocks................do tell ba. You can't leave everyone a dangle.

Edited September 25, 2015 by knocker

[Methuselah]

If the NH is slowly setting up a pattern for winter then I'm seeing some interesting building blocks from a wintry perspective.

You win the Annual Building Blocks Prize, blue...First of the season...  

Edited September 25, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Polar Maritime]

That's a 'pretty' cold Northerly showing from the GFS out in the run. Not to mention the Snow.. I would't take to much notice of it just yet, But nice to see all the same.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Scorcher]

That's a 'pretty' cold Northerly showing from the GFS out in the run. Not to mention the Snow.. I would't take to much notice of it just yet, But nice to see all the same.

 

Only 15 days away I suppose! Come on PM what about the more immediate weather next week?

[Polar Maritime]

Only 15 days away I suppose! Come on PM what about the more immediate weather next week?

 

High Pressure domination over the UK, With some very pleasant warm/dry Autumnal days next week especially Scotland. With frost risk for prone areas and morning Fog, It will look wonderful with the leaves turning Scorcher. Why?

Edited September 25, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

 I'm seeing some interesting building blocks from a wintry perspective.

I  see the building blocks are already on the Gfs 12z      awesome

[bluearmy]

Arh..building blocks................do tell ba. You can't leave everyone a dangle.

Perhaps 'building blocks' is the wrong wording knocks. Just paying attention to where the anomolys are establishing and thinking about how patterns tend to become established and then repeat. Yes it's not even October but as an example, when was the last long draw flow from south of west?

The current modelling staying keen on retrogression and a cold plunge into Scandi at some point.

[Frosty.]

That's a 'pretty' cold Northerly showing from the GFS out in the run. Not to mention the Snow.. I would't take to much notice of it just yet, But nice to see all the same.

I'm glad you highlighted the cold shot Rob, we all know next week is going to be anticyclonic but it will be very interesting to see what happens beyond that.

[knocker]

Tonight's GEFS anomalies do indicate possibility of a brief cold plunge although retrogression appears to be off the menu again.

 

At the end of the week the UK is in a classic squeeze between the HP to the north and LP to the south. This develops to HP to the NE and a weak trough to the west but little sign how this will develop and becomes an almost static scenario with no jet bouncing along. Need to try the fence for comfort.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Daniel*]

I do sense the wintry theme on ECM 12z in the depth of winter it would be naggingly cold in Southern England with a moderate fetched easterly feed notice the cold pool setting up shop over Southern England. 0C uppers in the Solent area!! a sure indication we're descending into silly season with right synoptic - rarely Scotland would be warmer than SE England. After turning warmer as feed is cut off by robust HP settling things down so days will be pleasant but nights will be on the chilly side, winter's coming.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Daniel*

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is looking very pleasant from this weekend and most of next week with high pressure sat on top of the uk bringing long sunny spells and warmer uppers (850's) by early next week which means daytime temps look like being above average although cooler uppers arrive across the south for a short time later next week before warming up again as winds become southerly. The north of the uk has light winds next week being within the core of the high with chilly nights and clear skies but more chance of overnight mist and fog  whereas winds freshen up across the south with the risk of a few showers too as pressure falls from the south. I get the feeling we will see a breakdown to more widespread unsettled weather beyond next week but its certainly looking very good for a while, especially across more central and northern areas, scotland has been waiting since spring for some decent weather of note so if anyone deserves a spell of warm fine weather..they do!

[Catacol]

Ha - how long before someone comes out with the old "warm, dry October" theory....

 

Building blocks? Sorry - not in September. But the cold pool in the atlantic and the most recent Glosea5 run do make for interesting theorizing.

 

Good to see a decent block over the UK in October - makes for some of the best weather of the year in my opinion.

[ANYWEATHER]

I do sense the wintry theme on ECM 12z in the depth of winter it would be naggingly cold in Southern England with a moderate fetched easterly feed notice the cold pool setting up shop over Southern England. 0C uppers in the Solent area!! a sure indication we're descending into silly season with right synoptic - rarely Scotland would be warmer than SE England. After turning milder as feed is cut off by robust HP settling things down so days will be pleasant but nights will be on the chilly side, winter's coming.

image.jpgimage.jpg

As far as Im concerned  Ecm has sided with Gfs tonight,  So we have three sections to the model output tonight, N01 A build of pressure resulting in high pressure all over the Uk ,2Nd, High pressure building over Scandinavia,, a distinct wind chill for southern Britain and Thirdly high pressure retreating North East ,Low pressure enters the Southwest.....

[Methuselah]

I do sense the wintry theme on ECM 12z in the depth of winter it would be naggingly cold in Southern England with a moderate fetched easterly feed notice the cold pool setting up shop over Southern England. 0C uppers in the Solent area!! a sure indication we're descending into silly season with right synoptic - rarely Scotland would be warmer than SE England. After turning warmer as feed is cut off by robust HP settling things down so days will be pleasant but nights will be on the chilly side, winter's coming.

image.jpgimage.jpg

That's hardly 'wintry' Daniel. An easterly wind, yes; but, in every other respect, nothing remotely unusual?

[Frosty.]

As far as Im concerned Ecm has sided with Gfs tonight, So we have three sections to the model output tonight, N01 A build of pressure resulting in high pressure all over the Uk ,2Nd, High pressure building over Scandinavia,, a distinct wind chill for southern Britain and Thirdly high pressure retreating North East ,Low pressure enters the Southwest.....

That distinct wind chill as you call it is nearly a week away and only lasts a few days in the south before it becomes warmer again, a lot of fuss about nothing. The next 6 days is where the main focus should be and that looks fine and warm by day with lots of sunshine after the clearance of patchy mist and fog, plenty to enjoy within the reliable timeframe.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Ha - how long before someone comes out with the old "warm, dry October" theory....

 

Building blocks? Sorry - not in September. But the cold pool in the atlantic and the most recent Glosea5 run do make for interesting theorizing.

 

Good to see a decent block over the UK in October - makes for some of the best weather of the year in my opinion.

It's October next week CH. I think it's the perfect juncture for hemispheric building blocks to take shape. we have a lot of feedback to get through!

[MR EXTREMES]

I remember the exciting easterly in October last year and the phantom easterly from the ecm started to look great then went Pete tong for the rest of winter.

But the retrogression of our current high ne is a good start.

But it could all go wrong but the current settled spell is absolutely lovely and to see charts of lovely weather and signs of cold snap is really exciting

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly tonight has the HP in situ over the UK until next weekend and then a slow decline with the weak trough Iceland becoming more prevalent without suggesting anything but a return to slack westerlies. The gefs is not far off being similar except it's still attached to pushing LP up from the south. After consulting NOAA as well I'm still looking for a pretty good week if not overly warm, except Scotland, and then nothing drastic such as cold plunges.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited September 25, 2015 by knocker