Model Output discussion 1st September 00z------->

[Daniel*]

That's hardly 'wintry' Daniel. An easterly wind, yes; but, in every other respect, nothing remotely unusual?

Wintry in a sense if it were a few months down the line alas it's early October.

[davehsug]

Wintry in a sense if it were a few months down the line alas it's early October.

A couple of months ago the same chart would have been "summery"!, I think it's weather.

[Polar Maritime]

After the Easterly flow as we enter the new month the GFS continues to show a wintry flavour into week 2, With High Pressure pushing up into Greenland drawing some cool/cold Northerly shots. 

Edited September 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The 18z GEFS (P) anomaly has the HP in situ well into next weekend and further. Certainly until the 8th and possibly through to the weekend. Temps obviously depend on the orientation of the HP but at this stage average or slightly above. Hallelujah

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Fantasy island showing a full blown greeny high with the NAO going through the floor!!

Don't think I've ever seen a run like that at this time of the year, the jet is normally powering up and becoming very active by now. Strange stuff indeed.

[knocker]

Just a quick spot check on the morning's GEFS anomaly to make sure it hasn't lost the plot and it hasn't. HP in close proximity throughout the run. As Sam Langhome might have said, the report of the Greenland high is greatly exaggerated.

Chart weatherbell

 

And the ecm ops has the HP in situ for the whole rin ending here.

Edited September 26, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Just a quick spot check on the morning's GEFS anomaly to make sure it hasn't lost the plot and it hasn't. HP in close proximity throughout the run. As Sam Langhome might have said, the report of the Greenland high is greatly exaggerated.

Chart weatherbell

 

And the ecm ops has the HP in situ for the whole rin ending here.

I think it's a brave call to rule out a Greenland height rise in week 2. Fwiw, I thInk the jet will stay too strong in that region to allow full retrogression but there are plenty of members running with one and the mean/spread certainly allows for the feature,

Make a note of how keen the gefs op is on that euro trough close to the UK over the next week and if it verifies closer to the med, make a note for winter runs proper. Could be something the op is skewed towards ?

[knocker]

I think it's a brave call to rule out a Greenland height rise in week 2. Fwiw, I thInk the jet will stay too strong in that region to allow full retrogression but there are plenty of members running with one and the mean/spread certainly allows for the feature,

Make a note of how keen the gefs op is on that euro trough close to the UK over the next week and if it verifies closer to the med, make a note for winter runs proper. Could be something the op is skewed towards ?

 

I didn't rule it out blue, just at this stage it was exaggerated. The jet not really a player at the moment I would have thought. There is quite a lot going on in the Pacific in the medium term that may impact downstream.

Edited September 26, 2015 by knocker

[Mark Parsons]

Fantasy island showing a full blown greeny high with the NAO going through the floor!!

Don't think I've ever seen a run like that at this time of the year, the jet is normally powering up and becoming very active by now. Strange stuff indeed.

Maybe the El Nino is starting to have an impact? I like some others am a little bothered by winter charts showing up so early in the season this often brings us the wrong synoptics later!

[Summer Sun]

The longest spell of settled weather since April is now arriving whilst cloud amounts will vary from day to day all of next week looks dry with high pressure dominating 

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY SEP 26TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone will continue to build across the UK today and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine well into October.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to remain well to the NW of the UK over the coming week or so where it blows NE across Iceland quite strongly. Later in the period the flow turns South across the UK in association of a trough developing near the United Kingdom.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure building across the UK currently and also across Northern Europe early next week. Fine and settled weather will reside for all. Through next week pressure falls over Southern Europe and an Easterly flow develops across the South. This fall in pressure affects the South of the UK in the risk of showers later next week. Then as pressure falls more significantly for all areas the High dissolves away and relocates to the NW of the UK allowing a surge of very cool and unsettled weather to move down from the North with the risk of some early snowfall for the Scottish mountains at times and some air frost at night where winds fall light and skies clear.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows a similar route in the next week with the South having a strong and gusty period of East winds late next week with some showery rain. This run departs from the Operational's route in Week 2 with somewhat less influence of a change to widely unsettled weather with some fine and dry if cool weather still around especially for the North where frosts at night would be prevalent while the South remain at risk from occasional showery rain as Low pressure flirts with Southern Britain at times.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning continue to show quite a lot of variability at the 14 day mark suggesting that the path is quite unclear in the longer term again today. There is a range of options that show High pressure remaining in control across Central and Southern areas with only the North seeing Atlantic's influence and rain while other members show a cocktail of synoptic's some good, some bad with a 15% group suggesting a Northerly similar to the Operational run.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure anchored over the UK for much of next week maintaining fine and settled weather UK wide with mist and fogs at night with touches of frost too but much compensatory warm sunny spells for most in the afternoon's.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning support the raw data well maintaining a strong ridge across the UK for most of next week with fine and settled weather as a result.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

GEM GEM this morning is again largely supportive of the main of other model output in that High pressure remains in control for much of the period, moving first to the NE and then back West across the UK and eventually out into the Atlantic. After a stiff breeze in the South later next week and the risk of a shower the weather turns dry again for most towards the end of the period as a slack and chilly Northerly flow under a ridge keeps rain bearing systems away from the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning has High pressure dominant across the UK over the next week with only a suggestion at the very end of the period covering next weekend that a few showers could be approaching the SE from Europe as the High pulls back a little out into the North Atlantic.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM this morning completes the set and shows High pressure close to or over the UK from now until the end of the period. The centre does shuffle around somewhat with a period of fresh and gusty East winds over the far South next week but only the risk of a few isolated showers in the extreme South for a time. This run attempts a retrogression of the High to the West of the UK through the latter half of next week but fails in this with the end of the period reflecting High pressure still strongly ensconced over Scotland and the North Sea with fine and dry weather for all with misty and cold nights for many but potentially bright and warm afternoons.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a typical open pattern shown where there is obviously quite a split in the individual member's output meaning not too much can be read into this chart's showing today.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain little changed from yesterday with the majority showing sustained High pressure based weather across all areas with any breakdown likely to come very late in the period and quite unclear in nature.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is ahead of UKMO at 96.5 pts to 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.4 pts to 86.3 pts then GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.2 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

MY THOUGHTS  Overall there remains little change in the output this morning particularly in the short to medium term. High pressure is going to remain the dominant role player over the UK for a considerable time to come as the centre crosses the UK and away to the East and NE before reasserting itself near northern Britain late next week. The only caveat to the overall fine, settled and often sunny weather by day and cool misty conditions overnight is the increase of wind likely across Southern England later next week which could give a shower or two for a time but it's only GFS and GEM who show his risk to be anything of significance while the Euro's fight shy of this outcome and maintain dry and fine weather for all. Then looking further out into the second week we see GFS do a complete retrogression of the High pressure area away to the NW of the UK scenario within it's operational run which has been hinted at from quite a bit of the output at times of late. In this case it would feed very cool and unsettled weather down across the UK later in the second week with even some snow for the Scottish hills and mountains and of course frosts at night. However, this is unlikely to verify as cross model support within it's own members amounts to only 15% and is not supported either by ECM or only limply by GEM. So we are still looking like a week to 10 days and maybe more of fine and settled weather across the UK when rainfall amounts will be very small or non existent and while there will no doubt be some days of stubborn mist and low cloud to push out the away all parts should see a lot of daytime sunshine, quite warm in the afternoons and a continuation of chilly nights. Any chance of a significant change to wet and windy weather within the next two weeks this morning continues to look quite small within the output on offer today.

 

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

 

An unsavoury chart as the worst chart of the day today comes from the GFS Operational run at T+336hrs with a deep Low across Southern Britain having moved down from well Northern latitudes and delivering very cool, windy and often wet weather for all as a result.

 

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

The best chart of the day has to be the UKMO 6 day chart as it illustrates how well established our currently developing anticyclone looks likely to be showing a centre across the UK next Friday with the continuing theme of fine and settled conditions for the whole UK with mist and fogs at night and perfect Autumn conditions for the UK as a whole, likely to last onward from this chart for several more days at least.

 

Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 28th 2015

[Cloud 10]

GFS op run and GEFS control sharing similar ideas at day 10.....

 

 

 

.....a bit of tweaking here and there and...

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Fantasy island showing a full blown greeny high with the NAO going through the floor!!

Don't think I've ever seen a run like that at this time of the year, the jet is normally powering up and becoming very active by now. Strange stuff indeed.

Although showing on the models I'd be careful not to get sucked in as this happened every year about this time when models throw up the excitement.

Although the atmospheric conditions the autumn are the opposite of last.

But we did see phantom easterlies last autumn and nothing came of it.

If a Greenland high does happen I'd quietly say this could be a precursor of how nov dec jan could pan out.

2009 see a weak more southerly tracking jet plus a record breaking negative nao starting with cold unsettled windy wet weather and early snow in the north and not especially warm in the south either.

But atm the models are only second guessing I'd be more inclined to think a block around Scandinavia area slowing retreating enough to allow the alantic back in with eastern areas not receiving a lot or no rain with in the near future.

Beautiful weather nice frost warm sunny clear air days lovely jubbly

But nice to see the models throwing up some excitement

[MR EXTREMES]

I think it's a brave call to rule out a Greenland height rise in week 2. Fwiw, I thInk the jet will stay too strong in that region to allow full retrogression but there are plenty of members running with one and the mean/spread certainly allows for the feature,

Make a note of how keen the gefs op is on that euro trough close to the UK over the next week and if it verifies closer to the med, make a note for winter runs proper. Could be something the op is skewed towards ?

I've been keep an eye on the med and what the models suggest it has to be noted that in an around these areas there has certainly been more activity than in recent seasons.

Similar to 09/10

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS op run and GEFS control sharing similar ideas at day 10.....

gfsnh-0-240.pnggensnh-0-1-240.png

.....a bit of tweaking here and there and...gensnh-1-1-264.png

These charts also illustrates how weak the arctic power house is it's certainly looking disrupted around the arctic hemisphere.

I reckon some strat warming events also Nice eye candy from the nao

Edited September 26, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[knocker]

Nothing in this morning's anomalies suggest anything apart from HP until Monday 5th and temps could be slightly above average. In the ext period the ecm drifts slowly to more influence of a weak trough Iceland area leading to the transition of westerly airflow regime. Not hugely dissimilar to the latest EC32.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited September 26, 2015 by knocker

[Biggin]

I've been keep an eye on the med and what the models suggest it has to be noted that in an around these areas there has certainly been more activity than in recent seasons.

Similar to 09/10

Yes me too, am going to Majorca next week and rain is on the menu most days, although the models atm dont seem to  back up that situation 100 percent. Been keeping an eye on the effect the lazy high has and will have in that region.

[Zenarcher]

Daily comparison using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time.

 

24 Hours Sunday (NAVGEM)

High pressure sits over the UK at 1025mb while most of England and Wales are under 1030mb.

 

48 Hours Monday (FIM)

High pressure gains some strength up to 1035mb as a low pressure system begins to form in the Atlantic.

 

72 Hours Tuesday (ICON)

High pressure gets pushed back East as a low pressure system heads North to the South of Iceland. There is still a lot of disagreement between the models at the moment on its path even at this range.

 

96 Hours Wednesday (CFS)

As the low pressure system over Iceland moves North East we see high pressure now pushing back in and this time going further West.

 

120 Hours Thursday (NAVGEM)

High pressure continues to move West at this point.

 

144 Hours Friday (GEM)

High pressure still stays over the UK especially over the North West.

 

168 Hours Saturday (NASA)

The high pressure is now expected to move further West and out into the Atlantic.

 

192 & 216 & 240 Hours Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (CMA, CFS and FIM)

No real strong agreements at this range however they do show a blocked outlook with high pressure mainly still sitting over the UK and out in the Atlantic which would continue the settled spell of weather into first week of October.

  

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say  make the  most of this warm spell after oct 7  its looking a  bit  damp!!

[Singularity]

All sorts of wild and wacky charts seem to be cropping up at the moment. What with a lot of Pacific tropical cyclone activity and one of the lowest sea ice extent minimums on record, this seems to make some sense. I'm looking forward to see how a strong/super El Nino winter pans out across the N. Hemisphere having had such low sea ice during the preceding autumn - it's not something that has ever been observed before (Arctic sea ice really did tank it during the past decade!).

 

 

Back to today's charts, and GFS is making less of that chilly easterly now, but we still have to put up with some chilly air affecting us for a few days. After that it starts to look a bit more like ECM, but next week's outlook from GFS remains a long way from ECM's 'warm air circulating around aloft' solution of this morning.

 

 

That Sunday chart is very interesting to our northwest. This run sees Iceland hammered by something not far off a hurricane in 3 days time, then blasted by frigid Arctic air 5 days later. It must be fun living up there... 

 

Out to +240 and just what is GFS up to here? That's quite a block to our W and NW, though with the usual shortwave shenanigans.

 

[summer blizzard]

Stunning FI from the GFS for winter fans. If only we were into Jan-Feb..

 

[Singularity]

The 12z GFS operational has kindly shown us what can happen if you get a negative NAO setup and then it becomes very much west-based (yes, I was lurking here last winter).

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to stamp out the much talked settled week, With maybe a cool/cloudy Easterly flow for the South on Thursday/Friday, Before High Pressure re-establishes itself for the weekend. Into week 2 of the new Month and the GFS maintains this morning/last nights theme of cold Northerly shots.

Edited September 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Costa Del Fal]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say  make the  most of this warm spell after oct 7  its looking a  bit  damp!!

Dont mean to be rude but have you ever posted a chart not in the very deep depths of FI? Come on now, there is a much more certain here and now and the next 5 days to discuss never mind into week 2 of October! To prove a point yesterday you posted that after September 30th its looking unsettled and cooler and now 1 day later were now saying after October 7th! Shows how fickle and rather fruitless it is looking that far out!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows an anticyclonic week ahead with plenty of sunshine for many areas and chilly nights with patchy mist and fog where winds are light, the generally fine spell lasts into the start of next weekend but then it gradually turns unsettled from the west but for the next week or so it looks very pleasant across most of the uk.    

Edited September 26, 2015 by Frosty.