Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Lynxus]

Yeah, interesting looking radar. 

 

radar5.PNG

 

What I find really interesting is that we have a REALLY! well defined bunch of waves on the leading edge of that front.

 

One passed over here 30 mins ago and I thought we were being hit by a tornado.

[Liam J]

What I find really interesting is that we have a REALLY! well defined bunch of waves on the leading edge of that front.

 

One passed over here 30 mins ago and I thought we were being hit by a tornado.

Imagine it was quite intense for a short while as they pass over, gusty winds? Any hail or lightning? 

[Liam J]

ECM a bit further north than the GFS and with a marginally tighter pressure gradient, also timing differences as the GFS by 12z Sunday has the strongest winds moving out into the North Sea. 

 

ECM -  GFS - 

Edited November 27, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Spikecollie]

OH reported an hour's power cut late this afternoon. Not sure if this was weather related...

[Summer Sun]

Sunday looks the worst day for the strong winds

 

 

We could easily see trees coming down many of our major towns and cities could be seeing gusts topping 60mph

 

Mean wind speeds show the period between 12:00 and 15:00 being the worst before the winds gradually ease

 

 

Another spell of strong winds are possible on Monday for the south

 

Edited November 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[heccygabber]

downgrades,downgrades

[Liam J]

I am actually very surprised that this won't be named as Storm Clodagh. The worst of those gales look like they're going to affect quite a populated area, unlike the other's so far where the worst of the winds have been mainly over the Scottish Highlands.

Storm Abigail affected Scotland but Barney came in across Wales where gusts weren't far behind Abigail then though Central/Southern England, Sundays depression looks like tracking through Central Scotland bringing the strongest winds to S Scotland & N England southwards. Still some uncertainty with exact track & timing. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Does look very windy Sunday for the Midlands south

[Liam J]

Does look very windy Sunday for the Midlands south

The Midlands south? The strongest winds look like being from the Midlands northwards up to Southern Scotland.

 

GFS 18z wind gusts for Sunday.

 

Edited November 27, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The Midlands south? The strongest winds look like being from the Midlands northwards up to Southern Scotland.

 

GFS 18z wind gusts for Sunday.

 

gfs280.pnggfs281.png

Alright sorry, just done a 14 hour day..always one

[Liam J]

Alright sorry, just done a 14 hour day..always one

I'll let you off lol

[Liam J]

A slight increase in potential max gusts for the far north of Wales and N/NW England with possible gusts to around 75mph, 50-60mph for most of England and Wales and possibly higher down the east coast as the depression exits into the North Sea, in a very active phase as it crosses the UK and still deepening, you can see once over the North Sea a small area where gusts could reach over 80mph.

 

10m wind speeds around 50kts (57mph) for the north Irish Sea.

 

 

Gusts. 

 

 

 

ECM shows the deepening wave 994mb in the Atlantic at 00z tonight, can't see the in between chart as they are 24hrs apart but by 00z Monday the depression has dropped 25mb to 969mb over Scandinavia. Will be able to see the chart for 12z Sunday on this evenings ECM.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The PIT]

lol funny how one run zapped it and it's now back didn't check after yesterday morning seeing buddies after work.

[knocker]

ECM shows the deepening wave 994mb in the Atlantic at 00z tonight, can't see the in between chart as they are 24hrs apart but by 00z Monday the depression has dropped 25mb to 969mb over Scandinavia. Will be able to see the chart for 12z Sunday on this evenings ECM.  

 

ecm16.pngecm17.png

 

At 12z Sunday it has the small wave feature NE Scotland giving westerly gusts southern Scotland up to 65kts for a short time.

[AdamStorm7891]

Morning folks, well the weather is certainly looking interesting again over the next few days with the primary concern over later on today and more particularly tomorrow with some torrential rain and widespread Gales or even Severe Gales. Looks like tomorrow's low pressure system could pack quite a punch with widespread 50-60mph across Southern England and Wales and the possibility of 70mph+ in central and Northern England and southern Scotland. I'm very surprised that the Met Office haven't seen it fit to give it the Clodagh title yet.  

[Liam J]

ARPEGE model going for top gusts of 60-70mph and locally 75mph over parts of Ireland into Southern Scotland & N/NW England and also parts of Wales, around 40-55mph for Central & Southern England. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Its clam and dry here in the NE so far

[Liam J]

Morning folks, well the weather is certainly looking interesting again over the next few days with the primary concern over later on today and more particularly tomorrow with some torrential rain and widespread Gales or even Severe Gales. Looks like tomorrow's low pressure system could pack quite a punch with widespread 50-60mph across Southern England and Wales and the possibility of 70mph+ in central and Northern England and southern Scotland. I'm very surprised that the Met Office haven't seen it fit to give it the Clodagh title yet.  

The last two named storms brought top gusts over 80mph and while tomorrows isn't looking as bad it's quite close, so I imagine it's probably just on the threshold, so she may or may not get named... 

 

Windy here on the coast this morning with gusts around 40-50mph. 

Edited November 28, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Spikecollie]

Estofex have this for the next 24 hours!

 

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2015112906_201511272243_1_stormforecast.xml

 

 

[Liam J]

Latest GFS 6z has increased the winds further for N/NW England  with gusts of 70-80mph.

 

Edited November 28, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[The PIT]

Certainly interesting. Nice and quiet at the moment and cold. Tomorrow sees the strongest winds over Northern England gusting to 70 mph. Today just up to 50mph in exposed places but reports suggesting higher than this already out west so it's a case of wait and see what happens.

Yesterday the strongest gust was 53mph at midday while the squally heavy rain didn't really materilise at all later in the evening.

[AdamStorm7891]

The last two named storms brought top gusts over 80mph and while tomorrows isn't looking as bad it's quite close, so I imagine it's probably just on the threshold, so she may or may not get named... 

 

Windy here on the coast this morning with gusts around 40-50mph. 

 

To be honest I think the criteria for naming a storm shouldn't come into effect until there's a likely probability of widespread disruption with inland gusts over 70-80mph, locally moderate disruption inland 50mph gusts and the odd 80mph gust nearer exposed coasts is hardly uncommon particularly at this time of year. People on the coasts are used to strong winds so unless we're talking near-hurricane conditions across a large area of the country then in my opinion storm naming is just an excuse for media sensationalism.

[Summer Sun]

Updated wind warning

 

Issued at: 1027 on Sat 28 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1030 on Sat 28 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2000 on Sat 28 Nov 2015

 

A blustery weekend is expected across England and Wales. Winds will continue to strengthen from the west on Saturday; gusts around coastlines exposed to the westerly or southwesterly winds could reach 60 mph in places, while inland gusts could touch around 50 mph locally. This is an update of the warning issued on Friday, to slightly reduce the expected gusts on Saturday, and to separate Sunday, when stronger winds are still predicted. Please be aware of the potential for very localised disruption due to the strong winds.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A low pressure system is expected to move east to the north of Scotland on Saturday, leading to strengthening winds across the UK but particularly across England and Wales. Latest indications are that gust strengths will be somewhat lower than previously expected.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448668800&regionName=uk

[Liam J]

To be honest I think the criteria for naming a storm shouldn't come into effect until there's a likely probability of widespread disruption with inland gusts over 70-80mph, locally moderate disruption inland 50mph gusts and the odd 80mph gust nearer exposed coasts is hardly uncommon particularly at this time of year. People on the coasts are used to strong winds so unless we're talking near-hurricane conditions across a large area of the country then in my opinion storm naming is just an excuse for media sensationalism.

I live on the coast here in Cumbria and winds gusting towards 80mph are certainly not that common, the average and more common winter storms usually bring gusts around 60-70mph and can occur quite a number of times during active weather periods over the winter months, storms bringing gusts up to 80mph or higher may only happen a couple of times each season at the most but usually not. I could possibly count on one hand storms of that magnitude I've seen over the last 10 years, and when they do occur they cause all sorts of disruption, trees down & structural damage etc.

Edited November 28, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Warning updated for Sunday.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448755200&regionName=uk