Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Liam J]

The Environment Agency recorded 178mm of rainfall in Cumbria by 5am this morning over the higher ground as was expected, so was not far off the Met Office predictions of 200mm. 

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

Edited November 15, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Cookie]

Not sure where to post this but Tomorrows forecast actually worries me. In the Western Isles. Winds gusting 70 to 80 mph during the day hours 

[Liam J]

Rain still falling over some areas who've already had more than enough over the last 24 hours.

 

 

Very windy for many western areas tonight - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Even stronger winds for the north during Monday as severe gales courtesy of a deep area of low pressure begin to affect the far NW & Western Isles from around midday onwards bringing potential gusts in excess of 70mph, the gales then spreading to the north of the mainland as the afternoon wears on, again gusts of 60mph or more and perhaps 70mph for exposed locations.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Not sure where to post this but Tomorrows forecast actually worries me. In the Western Isles. Winds gusting 70 to 80 mph during the day hours 

Yeah a bit different timing to Abigail who moved through overnight, tomorrow severe gales will be impacting during daylight hours and onwards into the evening, a much busier time... Winds won't be far off Abigail looking at some of the charts. 

[Summer Sun]

A recap of tomorrow's yellow warning for strong winds

 

Issued at: 1127 on Sun 15 Nov 2015

Valid from: 0900 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

 

Issued at: 1127 on Sun 15 Nov 2015

Valid from: 0900 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

 

Southwesterly winds will increase during Monday morning, when severe gales will affect parts of northwest mainland of Scotland and the Western Isles, extending to the Northern Isles during the afternoon. Later in the day the strongest winds should ease from the south of the warning area. Gusts of wind of 65-75 mph are expected in places, so be aware that there may be some further disruption to travel. Additionally, large waves may cause some overtopping of sea defences.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A deep low is set to develop near northwest Scotland late on Sunday. The system is complex, as it initially involves two separate low centres, one of which swings round to the southwest of the other. One effect of this is to enhance the swathe of very strong winds, but it also means that the exact outcome is more difficult to determine, so further updates to this warning are likely.

 

The warning covers

 

Orkney & Shetland, Highlands & Eilean Siar & Strathclyde

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447632000&regionName=uk

[Cookie]

Yeah a bit different timing to Abigail who moved through overnight, tomorrow severe gales will be impacting during daylight hours and onwards into the evening, a much busier time... Winds won't be far off Abigail looking at some of the charts. 

 

yup schools are back 

[Liam J]

yup schools are back 

Potential for more impacts tomorrow given the timing of this system when many people will be out and about. 

[Liam J]

And of you look at these charts there are some black arrows which show hurricane force winds out at sea, storm force 10 to violent storm force 11 once it starts affecting land... Just found out about this site so not sure what data is used for these forecasts. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Costa Del Fal]

The midlands could see some unusually strong gusts Tuesday evening. Models going for 60 even upto 70mph gusts. Very strong for this area. Even average wind speeds, the GFS is near 40mph. Looks brief but could be particularly nasty. Another one to watch. Certainly a risk of fallen trees.

And of you look at these charts there are some black arrows which show hurricane force winds out at sea, storm force 10 to violent storm force 11 once it starts affecting land... Just found out about this site so not sure what data is used for these forecasts. 

 

wind.PNGwind1.PNG

What is the link to this site please?

[Dale Hay]

Just found out about this site so not sure what data is used for these forecasts. 

 

wind.PNGwind1.PNG

I'd guess they're using GFS data, as the maps pretty much match the ones I have running pic 1 & pic 2 (respectively)

[Liam J]

South westerly gale to severe gales developing over NW Scotland & the Isles from around 12pm onwards, then affecting the north of the mainland veering more westerly through the afternoon with gusts 70-80mph likely for exposed locations.

 

 

Tuesday another one to watch with a risk of very strong winds for more central/southern areas, not as strong as further north but still gusts over 60mph possible. 

 

 

Worth noting the ECM charts wouldn't bring winds as strong as the GFS, although still windy, one to keep an eye on. 

 

 

Costa Del Fal, link as requested above - http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Cookie]

A lot of people on edge today about that timing of this. Hopefully pans out positivly

[Liam J]

Hi-res NetWx-SR charts shows the strongest winds beginning to affect the far NW by early afternoon with gusts close to 80mph not far from Lewis, around mid afternoon 60-70mph gusts close to the NW mainland then spreading across the north with gusts of 60mph or more, higher in exposure. 

 

 

NetWx-SR charts for Tuesday afternoon where the strongest winds will affect areas further south bringing gale force winds and gusts 50-60mph over S Ireland, Wales and SW England. Into Tuesday evening W/SW Wales gusts could reach over 60mph, the strong winds quickly transferring eastwards with potential gusts of 50-60mph or so for central/southern England, very windy through the channel with gusts around 65mph. 

 

 

Also more rain is expected this week and for some areas that are already affected by flooding issues, NetW-MR expected rainfall totals every 24hrs starting 00z Tuesday. 

 

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Summer Sun]

Seathwaite recorded 274mm of rain in 48 hours with Honister close behind at 267mm

[Liam J]

The Met Office have updated warnings for this weeks weather impacts - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=22315B5A-8F93-1EDC-0582-0AFCC8DD3471_3_NW&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447632000

 

Including a yellow be aware warning for wind across Wales and Central/Southern England during Tuesday, with the highest gusts likely for Wales and into the Bristol Channel, the Met also stress the uncertainty surrounding this event so the warning will the kept under review. 

 

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Summer Sun]

2nd named storm of the season with Barney coming our way tomorrow

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CT7gWRAWIAA0Yz9.jpg

[Liam J]

Separate thread here for discussion on storm #2, Barney - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84436-atlantic-storm-2-barney/

[Liam J]

Severe gales will begin to affect the far north west from around now and into the overnight period, already gusts touching 70mph for the Western Isles and will be spreading eastwards to affect the north of the mainland in the coming hours.

 

Recent gusts - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Edited November 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Cookie]

gusting in excess of 70 mph here for the last few hours

[The PIT]

gusting in excess of 70 mph here for the last few hours

Not windy for you then:)

Tomorrow evening our turn.

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for strong winds issued for Thursday

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447891200&regionName=uk

[Liam J]

Yeah, further gales expected tomorrow hot on the heels of Barney for more northern areas.

 

 

Continued risk of further flooding in the next few days given the saturated ground. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Saturday looks like a rare beast at the moment, low pressure moving down the North Sea with strong to gale force northerly winds for eastern parts along with bitterly cold air wrapped in the circulation so the windchill would be severe, also snow showers would be likely leading to blizzard conditions! Detail at this range will probably change...

 

 

 

 

 

[Liam J]

The next area of low pressure making inroads through today bringing further wet & windy weather, Sw'ly gales and gusts of 50-60mph through the Irish Sea this morning along with some very heavy rain now affecting many northern areas adding to the already high water levels.

 

 

Later this afternoon and evening strong westerly winds coming in over N Ireland into SW Scotland again bringing gusts around 50-60mph.

 

Edited November 18, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Weather warning in force today for parts of Scotland, N Ireland and N England - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447804800