Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warnings for heavy rain are out for Saturday, Sunday and Monday for Strathclyde, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, Wales, North West England, North East England, Yorkshire & Humber & East Midlands

 

Issued at: 1053 on Thu 12 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 14 Nov 2015

Valid to: 0300 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

 

A frontal system is expected to become slow-moving across parts of northwest Wales, northwest England and southwest Scotland. Rain associated with this feature is expected to become heavy and persistent, especially over hills exposed to the strong westerly flow. Flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers which have remained high after the large rainfall totals seen in these areas over the last few days.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A strong, moist westerly flow is expected to develop during Saturday and last through Sunday before clearing to the southeast on Monday. A frontal system aligned within this flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, this aided by tropical air being entrained into the system. Many parts of the warning area are likely to see 70-100 mm of rain, with some of the more exposed parts of north Wales and northwest England possibly seeing as much as 150-200 mm through the period. This amount of additional rainfall falling on to already saturated ground is likely to lead to flooding, either from standing water, or from rivers bursting their banks. There is some uncertainty in the exact areas likely to be affected by the heaviest rain, perhaps more especially southwest Scotland. As such, this warning will be kept under review to hone areas most at risk of the heaviest rain, and to potentially escalate to an Amber, should significant impacts become more likely.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447459200&regionName=uk

[Liam J]

Met Office warnings issued for Saturday, Sunday & Monday covering SW Scotland, NW England & N Wales. 70-100mm of rainfall with a possibility of 150-200mm for N Wales and NW England, the chief forecaster also mentions the warning may be escalated to amber, really not good news... And it's the 6 year anniversary next week of the devastating November 2009 floods which saw around 300mm of rainfall over parts of the Lake District. 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447286400

Edited November 12, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Thunder Snow]

Met Office warnings issued for Saturday, Sunday & Monday covering SW Scotland, NW England & N Wales. 70-100mm of rainfall with a possibility of 150-200mm for N Wales and NW England, the chief forecaster also mentions the warning may be escalated to amber, really not good news... And it's the 6 year anniversary next week of the devastating November 2009 floods which saw around 300mm of rainfall over parts of the Lake District. 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447286400

Very concerning to say the least

[mountain shadow]

20cm of rain over a couple of days, crikey.

 

Pour 20cm of water into a glass and then imagine that over a vast area!, bound to be some big floods.

 

Does Carlisle have decent flood defences now? I seem to remember it faired bad a few years back.

[Thunder Snow]

20cm of rain over a couple of days, crikey.

 

Pour 20cm of water into a glass and then imagine that over a vast area!, bound to be some big floods.

 

Does Carlisle have decent flood defences now? I seem to remember it faired bad a few years back.

Yes we have had better flood defences installed, but in my opinion they haven't really been put to the test as yet. Although local papers save the have saved the city on several occasions, however I honestly don't think all 3 rivers have been at the same levels witnessed in 2005, bit I guess we will found out come Saturday and Sunday. Hopefully it will take a different track

[The PIT]

Interesting forecast tonight. An overexcited Helen Willett? Going on about Thunder and lightning this evening well latest radar doesn't show any. Heavy rain yup that's there and strong winds. Then very strong winds over wales and north western england tomorrow morning which isn't shown by gfs. Time will tell.

[Mokidugway]

20cm of rain over a couple of days, crikey.

 

Pour 20cm of water into a glass and then imagine that over a vast area!, bound to be some big floods.

 

Does Carlisle have decent flood defences now? I seem to remember it faired bad a few years back.

a big Atlantic depression can dump 300 million tons of water on the uk !!

[Thunder Snow]

a big Atlantic depression can dump 300 million tons of water on the uk !!

Hopefully it will stay out west lol

[Liam J]

Hi-res rainfall totals are off the scale for parts of NW England from Saturday to Sunday.

 

 

 

[ChezWeather]

Interesting forecast tonight. An overexcited Helen Willett? Going on about Thunder and lightning this evening well latest radar doesn't show any. Heavy rain yup that's there and strong winds. Then very strong winds over wales and north western england tomorrow morning which isn't shown by gfs. Time will tell.

Some strong returns on the radar, a large squall line, no T+L however. 

[Spikecollie]

Some strong returns on the radar, a large squall line, no T+L however. 

There are strikes on Lightning Maps but mainly offshore, one on the west coast of Scotland right...

[Thunder Snow]

Hi-res rainfall totals are off the scale for parts of NW England from Saturday to Sunday.

 

ran1.pngran2.png

Not good

[Spikecollie]

Lightning strikes in western Scotland NOW! HW might have been right...

[Liam J]

Potentially very windy again during Monday across Scotland, with gale force winds a bit further south this time, although not looking as strong (at this stage) as we saw with Abigail last night but still potential for gusts 60-70mph. 

 

 

 

 

[Thunder Snow]

John Hammond said the warning has be raised to amber for the rain this weekend, but nothing on the met site. There going for 200mm over parts of Cumbria and up to 150mm across Wales

[Summer Sun]

Updated yellow warning for the rain

 

Issued at: 1150 on Fri 13 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 14 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2200 on Sun 15 Nov 2015

 

A frontal system is expected to become slow-moving across parts of northwest Wales, northern England, the far north of the Midlands and much of south and west Scotland. Rain associated with this feature is expected to become heavy and persistent, especially over hills exposed to the strong west to southwesterly flow. Be aware that, given already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers which have remained high after the large rainfall totals over the last few days.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A strong, moist westerly flow is expected to develop during Saturday and last through most of Sunday before clearing during the evening. This flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, with 50-100 mm of rain falling in many areas, particularly across hills; some upland areas are covered by a separate Amber warning. This additional rainfall, falling on to already saturated ground, is likely to lead to further flooding. There is some uncertainty in the exact locations of heaviest rainfall, as well as peak amounts; this will depend on how far north the frontal system moves and how long it remains aligned across any one area. For this reason, the warning will be kept under review over the weekend.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447459200&regionName=uk

[Thunder Snow]

Updated yellow warning for the rain

 

Issued at: 1150 on Fri 13 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Sat 14 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2200 on Sun 15 Nov 2015

 

A frontal system is expected to become slow-moving across parts of northwest Wales, northern England, the far north of the Midlands and much of south and west Scotland. Rain associated with this feature is expected to become heavy and persistent, especially over hills exposed to the strong west to southwesterly flow. Be aware that, given already saturated conditions, flooding is possible either from standing water or from rivers which have remained high after the large rainfall totals over the last few days.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A strong, moist westerly flow is expected to develop during Saturday and last through most of Sunday before clearing during the evening. This flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, with 50-100 mm of rain falling in many areas, particularly across hills; some upland areas are covered by a separate Amber warning. This additional rainfall, falling on to already saturated ground, is likely to lead to further flooding. There is some uncertainty in the exact locations of heaviest rainfall, as well as peak amounts; this will depend on how far north the frontal system moves and how long it remains aligned across any one area. For this reason, the warning will be kept under review over the weekend.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447459200&regionName=uk

BBC said amber warning

[Summer Sun]

BBC said amber warning

 

The met office also mention an amber warning "some upland areas are covered by a separate Amber warning" but as yet they haven't issued it via the website

[Summer Sun]

Amber warnings now out for Cumbria and Yorkshire & Humber

 

Issued at: 1227 on Fri 13 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1800 on Sat 14 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2100 on Sun 15 Nov 2015

 

A frontal system is expected to become slow-moving across parts of northwest Wales and northern England during Saturday and Sunday. Rain associated with this feature is expected to become heavy and persistent, especially over hills exposed to the strong west to southwesterly flow. Be prepared for flooding to occur, especially within the Amber warning area, either surface water flooding or flooding from rivers which have remained high after recent heavy rainfall.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A strong, moist west to southwesterly flow is expected to develop during Saturday and last through most of Sunday before clearing during the evening. This flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, with 50-100 mm of rain falling in many areas. However, as much as 150 to 200 mm may fall across some of the most exposed high ground, Cumbria appearing to be at particular risk of such totals. This additional rainfall, falling on to already saturated ground, is likely to lead to further flooding. There is some uncertainty in the exact locations of heaviest rainfall, as well as peak amounts; this will depend on how far north the frontal system moves and how long it remains aligned across any one area. For this reason, the warning will be kept under review over the weekend.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447459200&regionName=uk

[Thunder Snow]

Amberhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/NW

[Liam J]

Just got back from having lunch, not very often you see an amber warning for rainfall... I really hope the upper limit rainfall predictions do not occur, the River Derwent along the A66 near Cockermouth is still running above the banks and into the fields in places. 

 

Cold and windy this afternoon, gusts hitting 50-55mph with a few showers and only 7.8c. 

Edited November 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Love Snow]

Amazing hailstone storm in seacroft at the minute

Edited November 13, 2015 by Love Snow

[Liam J]

Latest NetWx hi-res rainfall totals continue to show some very high rainfall totals between Saturday and Monday for areas under the amber warning in NW England & N Wales, also W Scotland could also have some significant rainfall amounts. 

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Liam, A very wet weekend indeed on the way. Heavy rain forecast here all day with winds gusting 60mph by tomorrow evening in the Peak District.

[Mokidugway]

Yes Liam, A very wet weekend indeed on the way. Heavy rain forecast here all day with winds gusting 60mph by tomorrow evening in the Peak District.

don't think I'd fancy hiking in the lakes on Sunday ...