Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Mokidugway]

probably be as powerful as a wet fart

is that the new terminology for intensity from NOAA ???

[Mokidugway]

Aye. The low in question is actually now just east of Hudson Bay.  It's then modeled to be carried SE by jet exiting NA over next 24 hours, before deepening considerably over the mid-Atlantic during mid-latter part of week over as it crosses under left-exit jetstreak.

 

jet_110912z.png

 

jet_111112z.png

 

jet_121112z.png

 

UKM/ECM not modeling the low as intense, and both hinting at a more N'erly track as it approaches UK. Differences to be expected at this stage.

 

Cold air aloft/steep lapse rfollowing passage of cold front front during period in question as well, with mild waters developing a marginally unstable environment, so shower activity likely to exacerbate winds locally, should current outputs verify.

organised LEWP,s then ..nice to see you back ..

[Liam J]

Aye. The low in question is actually now just east of Hudson Bay.  It's then modeled to be carried SE by jet exiting NA over next 24 hours, before deepening considerably over the mid-Atlantic during mid-latter part of week over as it crosses under left-exit jetstreak.

 

jet_110912z.png

 

jet_111112z.png

 

jet_121112z.png

 

UKM/ECM not modeling the low as intense, and both hinting at a more N'erly track as it approaches UK. Differences to be expected at this stage.

 

Cold air aloft/steep lapse rfollowing passage of cold front front during period in question as well, with mild waters developing a marginally unstable environment, so shower activity likely to exacerbate winds locally, should current outputs verify.

Yeah, ECM not going for a depression as intense as the GFS and as you say it looks to be taking a more northerly track keeping the strongest winds away off to the NW, still a few days to go yet though... Could be that the GFS is over-doing the intensity, which it often does. 

 

[Love Snow]

Sounds quite wild out now howling around the house !

[Thunder Snow]

Windy and rain again

[Liam J]

Possibly the windiest spell of the autumn so far during Thursday night into Friday for parts of N/NW Ireland, W/NW Scotland & the far north into the N Isles. 

 

GFS

 

 

ECM - Wind speed in knots. 

 

Edited November 10, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[heccygabber]

I want a proper storm with over 70mph gusts

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for heavy rain issued for the Lake District and Pennines

 

Issued at: 1027 on Tue 10 Nov 2015

Valid from: 0010 on Wed 11 Nov 2015

Valid to: 0700 on Wed 11 Nov 2015

 

Rain will turn persistent and heavy on Tuesday evening, with totals building up from the early hours to exceed 60 mm on hill tops by early Wednesday morning. The public should be aware of the risk of local flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A front will come slowly southwards across the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Until it clears through, a feed of moisture-laden air will be forced to rise as it hits the hills of the Lake District and Pennines, releasing copious amounts of rainfall and swelling water courses.

 

Warning covers

 

Cumbria, Durham & North Yorkshire

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447200000&regionName=uk

[Summer Sun]

Met Office officially names Abigail as first storm

 

Storm Abigail which will bring strong winds across the far north of the UK on Thursday evening into Friday has the potential to cause some disruption in these areas as a deep low pressure system crosses to the north of the UK.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/storm-Abigail?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weather_StormAbigail

[IanR]

no doubt the press will milk this and blow it out of proportion,  just because a regular atlantic gale will now have a name, so it will be a savage killer now   

[Thunder Snow]

Heavy rain and breezy

[Mokidugway]

Still dry here and windy

[Thunder Snow]

Still dry here and windy

Rivers back on flood alert

[Liam J]

Rain will become more organised overnight leading to a wet morning and afternoon, NetWx-SR showing some very heavy rain tomorrow afternoon for NW England. 

 

Edited November 10, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

Rivers back on flood alert

it's sad what happened in Kendal with the old guy who crashed his car in to the river .

[Thunder Snow]

it's sad what happened in Kendal with the old guy who crashed his car in to the river .

Oh no didn't he make it. I've never seen the news. The river must of been a torrent

Rain will become more organised overnight leading to a wet morning and afternoon, NetWx-SR showing some very heavy rain tomorrow afternoon for NW England. 

 

nm19.png

Round erm..... what we on now lol

[Cookie]

18Z downgrade Thursday night Friday morning a little?

[Mokidugway]

Rain really pepping up on radar ....

[Liam J]

18Z downgrade Thursday night Friday morning a little?

There's a thread for discussion on Storm Abigail for Thursday night into Friday

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84392-atlantic-storm-1-abigail/#entry3281277

[Thunder Snow]

A lot of rain again today, the river Eden is on a flood warning and it really it quite high. Coupled with tomorrow's rain then the remain of hurricane Kate. I think we could see some significant flooding possibly

[knocker]

The gfs 00z for 00z tonight shows Abigail and away to the SW ex hurricane Kate which travels NE over the next three days before merging with another Atlantic system bringing up the rear. This quite complicated scenario will bring some quite strong winds and, I suspect more to the point, a fair bit of rain.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited November 12, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm's take on the travels of Kate are not quite the same as the gfs. It merges with another low just to the west of it and then nips across the Atlantic to the south of Iceland before, at a later date, merging once again with another low.

 

[mountain shadow]

Carol Kirkwood used the word exceptional to describe potential rainfall amounts over NW England and N Wales on Saturday.

I'm guessing that's 60mm+

[Liam J]

Yes, by the end of the weekend some areas according to the GFS could have accumulated over 100mm / 4 inch of rainfall which really isn't good news given how saturated the ground currently is in the north west. 

 

Edited November 12, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[stevofunnelcl]

Very interesting final discussion from NHC on ex-Kate

 

Shows increasingly powerful non-tropical low in the north-east atlantic, but they are not sure if that is ex-Kate, or the Low it merges with

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/120847.shtml?