Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Liam J]

Yes Liam, A very wet weekend indeed on the way. Heavy rain forecast here all day with winds gusting 60mph by tomorrow evening in the Peak District.

Yeah, thoroughly miserable weather for the weekend with a significant of risk of flooding for some...

[Liam J]

Possibly round two for the north on Monday? If the GFS is onto something then severe gales would be more widespread across Scotland than with Abigail, but not quite as strong. 

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Zenarcher]

Possibly round two for the north on Monday? If the GFS is onto something then severe gales would be more widespread across Scotland than with Abigail, but not quite as strong. 

 

gfs103.pnggfs100.pnggfs101.pnggfs102.png

 

Yeah it looks more inland for this one. Abigail's strongest winds where out at sea.

[Spikecollie]

Looks like I am in for a lovely ride from LIG to LPL on Monday...mllaahhh!

[Liam J]

Updated rainfall totals from the hi-res NetWx models, still very concerning and the 12z Saturday to Sunday accumulation chart has increased the totals and over a slightly wider area. 

 

12z -  6z - 

 

Met Office updated the warnings earlier to raise the potential impacts to the highest on the warning matrix, next step would be a red warning.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Thunder Snow]

Updated rainfall totals from the hi-res NetWx models, still very concerning and the 12z Saturday to Sunday accumulation chart has increased the totals and over a slightly wider area. 

 

12z - rain3.png  6z - ran3.png

 

Met Office updated the warnings earlier to raise the potential impacts to the highest on the warning matrix, next step would be a red warning.

 

warn.PNG

Great hope all the new flood defences work

[Thunder Snow]

According to some reports in Carlisle, the temporary flood gate defences are been put into action

Edited November 14, 2015 by Thunder Snow

[andy989]

I've got my sand bags ready as a river flows under my drive way and it floods during heavy rains. Overflows onto the road floods houses further down. Got my camera charged and will update when possible. Looks like a wet one here, NW Wales.

[Liam J]

First of all, unimaginable events in Paris last night, RIP to the many innocent people who have lost their lives.

 

00z NetWx-SR rainfall accumulations, no decrease in predicted totals and this remains a very worrying situation. 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 7pm tomorrow night GFS has the highest totals no where near those forecast by the met office

 

[Thunder Snow]

Hopefully get away with it

[Liam J]

Up-to 7pm tomorrow night GFS has the highest totals no where near those forecast by the met office

 

The Met Office will be using their hi-res models such as the UKV which runs at 1.5km 3D resolution and will be much better for predicting more accurate rainfall amounts given the topography, also the NetWx-SR 4km model is also predicting similar amounts to the Met Office.  

Edited November 14, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Thunder Snow]

Flood alerts in place

Latest Information:

We have experienced some very wet weather over the last few days, river and lake levels remain high. Catchments are very wet and remain saturated. The forecast for the weekend is for very heavy and persistent rain with main areas affected being South and West Lakes however, Cumbria more widely will see some significant rainfall. The rain is expected to arrive into the County from lunchtime today and will continue to be persistent overnight and throughout tomorrow. We forecast for significant rainfall totals in the region and expect to see flooding to areas across Cumbria. We advise you take some preparatory actions by:- Checking vulnerable family, friends and neighbours Install flood protection measures to your property if you have them Only travel if necessary and do not drive through flood water Considering to activate or get ready to activate your community emergency plan Keeping a check on Environment Agency website www.gov.uk/flood

10:37 on 14 Nov 2015

[Swaledalehenry]

Presume it's the area around the 'crease' which will bring the rain?

Edited November 14, 2015 by Swaledalehenry

[Liam J]

Presume it's the area around the 'crease' which will bring the rain?

image.jpg

The various fronts stretch way out into the Atlantic associated with an elongated area of low pressure. 

 

[Summer Sun]

Amber warning issued for Dumfries and Galloway

 

Issued at: 1143 on Sat 14 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1700 on Sat 14 Nov 2015

Valid to: 1800 on Sun 15 Nov 2015

 

Rain will be persistent and heavy at times on Saturday night. The rain is likely to ease for a time on Sunday morning before further heavy rain arrives on Sunday afternoon. The rain will be especially heavy over hills exposed to the strengthening southwesterly wind. Be prepared for some disruption to travel due to flooding, either from surface water flooding or flooding from rivers which have remained high after recent heavy rainfall.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A trough of low pressure will be slow moving over southwest Scotland on Saturday night bringing heavy and at times persistent rain. During Sunday a depression will develop with a strengthening southwesterly airflow enhancing the rainfall across high ground during the afternoon. The rain will ease by evening. Accumulations during the event are expected to be around 50 to 70mm, possibly higher over the Galloway hills.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447459200&regionName=dg

[Mokidugway]

Trailing fronts , here comes the deluge ..

[radiohead]

Up-to 7pm tomorrow night GFS has the highest totals no where near those forecast by the met office

 

 

This is where the resolution of global models doesn't paint the full picture. You need to look at finer mesh higher resolution models to see the detail of rainfall amounts over higher ground.

[Liam J]

The Met Office updated amber warnings now cover a larger area in NW England with totals now being estimated of 200-250mm of rainfall across most exposed high ground, SW Scotland is also under an amber warning but expected totals are much less, 50-70mm maybe a bit higher and North Wales with 50-100mm and poss 200mm. 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447459200

Edited November 14, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

Much clearer here re Rainfall totals.

 

 

[Liam J]

Much clearer here re Rainfall totals.

Yes, and the 24hr rainfall totals after that taking us to Monday morning showing the deluge continues.

 

[Summer Sun]

5 rain warnings are in force until 22:00 tomorrow night

 

3 x amber warning

2 x yellow warning

 

1 rain warning is in force from 12:00 Monday until 23:59 Tuesday

[Evening thunder]

Looking at the matrix in the warning for Cumbria and NW England, the impact is now in the highest category so only a slight increase in likelihood is necessary for it to become a red warning..

 

Very different to down here where rain so far this month and the coming week continues to look relatively light. 

[Summer Sun]

Early stages but so far it looks to be Wales which is taking the brunt of the rain along with north west Ireland

[andy989]

Early stages but so far it looks to be Wales which is taking the brunt of the rain along with north west Ireland

Just drizzle over me so far, can see blue skies through cloud breaks over Irish sea