Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Abyss]

Hope it pushes further South. I'm craving some proper weather

[Liam J]

EPS have updated and offer some but fairly limited support to the GFS evolution, as I said I think it could be another 24hrs+ before we see agreement so at the moment the jury is still out... More runs needed! 

 

ECM ensemble mean for 00z Monday.

 

 

Possibility of another storm Tueday night into Wednesday.

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

Yes by Weds 18z the ecm has gusts in excess of 80kts in northern Scotland for a brief period.

[Mapantz]

I think I'll renew a full subscription later, I need to get back into the swing of things again, now that it is looking turbulent.

[matty40s]

BBC now hinting at a blast on Sunday.

[Liam J]

GFS 6z showing a less intense depression with the strongest winds a bit further south on this run.  

 

 

Max gusts around 75mph for exposed parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland away from the far north. 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Winds slightly stronger on the GFS 12z and it brings gusts around 75mph+ in across W/NW Ireland, 60-70mph over Southern Scotland & N England and gusts 50-60mph+ over a wider area. Some of the GEFS members would bring even stronger winds although those are in the minority.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Rain warning out for Highlands & Eilean Siar

 

Issued at: 1406 on Thu 26 Nov 2015

Valid from: 0005 on Fri 27 Nov 2015

Valid to: 1500 on Fri 27 Nov 2015

 

Following some wet weather on Thursday afternoon, rain will turn heavier on Thursday night and Friday morning, before turning showery during the afternoon. Be aware of the risk of some low level disruption due to localised flooding of roads.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A strong southwesterly airstream will bring a spell of wet weather to the West Highlands. While outbreaks of rain will arrive on Thursday, the heaviest rain and any impacts are likely to be on Friday. Rainfall totals of 30-50 mm are expected widely within the warning area with isolated peaks of over 80 mm possible, while an active cold front on Friday morning could bring 10 mm in an hour. Strong to gale force southwesterly winds will add to the difficult driving conditions. Once the rain clears it will quickly turn colder with showers turning increasingly wintry on Friday evening.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448582400&regionName=he

[The PIT]

A interesting day for Sunday by the looks of things. Hopefully no downgrades on the next few runs.

[heccygabber]

A interesting day for Sunday by the looks of things. Hopefully no downgrades on the next few runs.

maybe a few upgrades

[Liam J]

A very windy ECM for Sunday, detail will likely change around a bit over the next few days but look at that pressure gradient over NW Scotland...

 

 

Another storm for Tues/Wed. 

 

 

[Zenarcher]

A very windy ECM for Sunday, detail will likely change around a bit over the next few days but look at that pressure gradient over NW Scotland...

 

ecm12.png

 

Another storm for Tues/Wed. 

 

ecm13.pngecm14.png

 

Yes ECM shows mean speeds on Sunday for parts of Scotland being 40 to 50 mph. The center of the low is pretty much in the same position as the GFS so some good agreement between the two at the moment. The possible Tuesday/Wednesday storm looks even worse the ECM is going for 45 to 55 mph mean speeds for most of Scotland with the North West seeing 60 to 68 mph mean speeds. Most of the models show a deep low around this point next week but there isn't any strong agreement on it yet.

[Evening thunder]

It would be nice to get something that affects the south for once, but no matter how may letters we use up the best we will get down here any time soon is a normal windy day even if the media and forecasts ramp up the storms. You can nearly guarantee that from the models.

[Liam J]

It would be nice to get something that affects the south for once, but no matter how may letters we use up the best we will get down here any time soon is a normal windy day even if the media and forecasts ramp up the storms. You can nearly guarantee that from the models.

You were probably too far south to feel any impact from Barney? I'm sure the south will experience a storm or two during the winter months,  just not as many as areas further north within the usual autumn/winter storm tracks.  

[The PIT]

Massive downgrade on the 00 oz for Sunday. Any further downgrades will just make it a leaf rustler. As it is now just a minor windy spell top gusts around 60 mph in a much narrow field as well.

[Liam J]

6z has increased potential gust speeds a touch although not as strong as they were yesterday, around 60-65mph max gusts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MP-R]

It would be nice to get something that affects the south for once, but no matter how may letters we use up the best we will get down here any time soon is a normal windy day even if the media and forecasts ramp up the storms. You can nearly guarantee that from the models.

 

December to February isn't really very good for decent storms either; I've always recorded my highest wind gusts in October/November and March, with the exception of January 2007 which was unusual. Maybe we'll get a proper gale in January with heavy snow   (pigs flying in the background...)

[Mapantz]

A blanket warning has been issued by the MetO..

[matty40s]

A blanket warning has been issued by the MetO..

Screenshot_2015-11-27-11-01-25.png

flying blankets, that's so Yesterday - has no one told the it's trampolines nowadays.

[Summer Sun]

Rain warnings now out

 

Issued at: 1154 on Fri 27 Nov 2015

Valid from: 0600 on Sun 29 Nov 2015

Valid to: 1300 on Sun 29 Nov 2015

 

Outbreaks of rain on Sunday morning and early afternoon are expected to be heavy at times. Although rainfall accumulations are not expected to be very large rivers remain high from previous rainfall and are expected to respond introducing a risk of minor river flooding. Although the rain will ease during the early afternoon it is expected that there will be a continued risk of minor river flooding until evening. Please be aware of the risk of some disruption due to river flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure is expected to move east across southern Scotland on Sunday morning bringing a spell of rain that could be heavy at times. Amounts of rainfall are not expected to be excessive, a further 10 to 20 mm falling in places, however rivers remain high and are expected to respond to the forecast rainfall. This will introduce the risk of some minor river flooding. Although the rain will ease during the early afternoon it is expected that there will be a continued risk of minor river flooding until evening. There remains some uncertainty in the track of the associated low and hence exact rainfall amounts. As such this Alert is likely to be updated as confidence in the low track and rainfall amounts increase.

 

Issued at: 1209 on Fri 27 Nov 2015

Valid from: 0015 on Mon 30 Nov 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Tue 1 Dec 2015

 

Rain is expected to move northwards across Wales from early on Monday with the largest rainfall totals over high ground. This will persist over the high ground through Monday and Tuesday though varying in intensity. With this following the wet November, particularly over North Wales, the ground is saturated and rivers are expected to rise in response to the rainfall. Please be aware of the potential for disruption from flooding, even away from the heaviest rainfall as the water moves through the river network.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A series of low pressure systems will bring mild and moist air to Wales along with some strong winds. This will lead to some large rainfall accumulations over the high ground of the country with over 80 mm possible over the peaks during Monday and Tuesday. Following the wet November, particularly in the north, the ground is saturated and rivers are expected to rise in response to the rainfall with a low risk of flooding. Whilst lowland areas are expected to see much smaller rainfall amounts, as the water moves downstream through the river network further areas of flooding are possible. There is some uncertainty around the behaviour of these individual weather systems and so the persistence of the rainfall. This alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448841600&regionName=uk

[Evening thunder]

You were probably too far south to feel any impact from Barney? I'm sure the south will experience a storm or two during the winter months,  just not as many as areas further north within the usual autumn/winter storm tracks.  

 

Yes slightly too far south for anything notable here. Just felt little despondent at the lack of interest down here that has dominated for so long. 

Feels harder to get a proper storm down here these days based on childhood memories/archive charts I've seen (not sure if it's true). February 2014 is the only time with what I'd call 'proper' storms that I can think of recently (though of course I wasn't here). 

 

Although thankfully the outlook doesn't look quite as bad as if the Euro high had been a bit closer like some runs suggested.

 

December to February isn't really very good for decent storms either; I've always recorded my highest wind gusts in October/November and March, with the exception of January 2007 which was unusual. Maybe we'll get a proper gale in January with heavy snow   (pigs flying in the background...)

 

Interesting, I have heard that January is our windiest month on average (though I guess that may not mean the most frequent storms), and it brought the Burns day 1990 and the 3rd January 1976 storms, so there will probably be one sooner or later.. but that snow option would be better   

Must partly be something to do with location and the directions we're exposed to, as my top 5 highest gusts have all occurred in January and February (data 2008 onwards), though none especially strong at 49-54mph (I'm in a valley but relatively open and would normally expect at least 60mph from a strong wind storm). I seem to pick up wind slightly better from the S-SE and W-N than the SW.. so maybe recent Autumn storms had more SW winds.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Liam J]

GFS 12z showing similar wind gusts to this mornings 6z run, maybe a notch higher locally with gusts possible of 60-70mph for the far south of Scotland & parts of Northern England, more generally 50-60mph for much of England and Wales.

 

 

12z UKMO just thrown this up for Monday, GFS for comparison. 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Zenarcher]

12z UKMO just thrown this up for Monday, GFS for comparison. 

 

ukmo7.gif gfs271.png

 

The 00z ECM agrees with the UKMO it also showed a low exactly like it in the same position which would bring 35 to 45 mph mean wind speeds across Ireland and Northern England.

[matty40s]

A row of lovely worm like squall lines now forming on the radar.

( can't post pic from phone)

[Liam J]

A row of lovely worm like squall lines now forming on the radar.

( can't post pic from phone)

Yeah, interesting looking radar.