Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

[Liam J]

The majority of GEFS peturbs supporting the significant windstorm development - http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=138

 

That would be a bit blowy up north!! Thankfully only one or two peturbs would have any impacts for northern UK. 

 

Edited November 24, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

The majority of GEFS peturbs supporting the significant windstorm development - http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=138

 

That would be a bit blowy up north!! Thankfully only one or two peturbs would have any impacts for northern UK. 

 

gefs.png

certainly not a good day for moving jab lite polystyrene slabs !!..

[The PIT]

No sign of anything stormy except in deep fi and this Saturdays was supposed to be very windy last Friday so I expect this t129 to be downgraded as well. So at the moment back to nothing of note.

[heccygabber]

No sign of anything stormy except in deep fi and this Saturdays was supposed to be very windy last Friday so I expect this t129 to be downgraded as well. So at the moment back to nothing of note.

yup back to the boring weather, the same boring weather we've had for weeks minus the little snow flurries we had

[Liam J]

Going to turn quite mobile as the Atlantic fires up from this weekend onwards, in fact it's looking quite busy so anything could crop up at quite short notice in these volatile situations.... 

[Zenarcher]

The GFS, CFS and ECM have the deep low crossing over near Iceland at the start of next week. GEM and NAVGEM bring it a little lower South to where the Northern Scottish Isles would be inline for very strong winds. However the UKMO, JMA and CMA don't form this deep low at all.

[weather09]

Aye, differences appear to be at T120, around when the low in question is currently expected to develop.  Notice how the UKMO-GM maintains a 'flatter' jet aloft, where left-exit/divergent winds for deep cyclogenesis aren't as apparent.  The GFS/ECM, on the other hand, show more amplification of 500mb ridge south of the UK, lifting jet towards the pole and increasing divergence aloft, and given the steep thermal gradient and resulting strong jet streak, explosive deepening of low occurs.

 

Interesting one to monitor, if only for the possibility of southward revisions of the pattern aloft/sfc low which means it affects far northern UK. 

[Ravelin]

Is it just me or has the Icelandic low everyone is talking about virtually disappeared on tonight's 18Z GFS?

[Liam J]

Is it just me or has the Icelandic low everyone is talking about virtually disappeared on tonight's 18Z GFS?

While less intense than previous runs it passes closer to the UK bringing severe gales to the north, then Norway gets hammered. 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

The depression for Sunday night into Monday is less intense on the 00z and is now predicted to cross northern UK and likely to bring some very strong winds for much of the country, gusts widely above 60mph and around 70mph in some locations.

 

 

GFS & ECM in good agreement for the centre to track close to Northern Scotland.

 

 

Potentially Storm Clodagh? 

 

Further down the line the GFS develops a hurricane force low but we know what usually happens with those (downgrade) !! 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[heccygabber]

would be good if that came off

[Liam J]

The 6z OP run is still going for severe gales but the ensembles are not in agreement re timing & intensity. 

 

 

 

 

[heccygabber]

12z gfs with a storm affecting much of England and Wales on the 2nd

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I want winds of the scale right through central Scotland!! I love it when winds are over 90mph!

[heccygabber]

I want winds of the scale right through central Scotland!! I love it when winds are over 90mph!

like 'hurricane' bawbag? yeah would be good if we get something like that again this winter

[Liam J]

Still looking quite wild later on Sunday, ECM showing a 5mb lower central pressure than the GFS. 

 

 

 

GFS wind gust predictions. 

 

Edited November 25, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[heccygabber]

what are the ecm wind speeds for Sunday?

[Steve C]

I've a hunch, which I've had for a couple of weeks, that we might see something nasty, storm wise, between about 2nd and 5th December. I think the current charts are conducive to storm development as well, although specifics are at too long a range at the moment. I think there may be a meteorological bullet or two to dodge. I hope I'm wrong. Violent winds no longer excite me (although I find them very impressive)

[Liam J]

Yes Steve, a very mobile and volatile looking set up as we say goodbye to autumn and welcome in the new winter, I'm not going to stick my neck out and give dates but looking at current guidance going forward conditions are looking ripe to power up some notable Atlantic depressions, and if all parameters come together at the right time we may see some 'weather bombs' as depressions undergo explosive cyclogenesis.... 

 

Wonder how many names we can strike off the list over the coming months?! 

 

Edited November 25, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[TwisterGirl81]

I want winds of the scale right through central Scotland!! I love it when winds are over 90mph!

Hey you have more than your fair share of winter storms, I'd like some southern storms too

[Zenarcher]

what are the ecm wind speeds for Sunday?

 

30 to 40 mph mean speeds across most of Scotland with 50 to 60 mph gusts. In exposed parts across the West and North of Scotland 45 mph mean speeds with top gusts of 70 mph. Orkney and Shetland in the far North though mean speeds 50 to 60 mph with gusts in the 80 to 90 mph range.

[The PIT]

A bit of a change a breezy Saturday and a windy Sunday. Should be quite a prolonged blow as well. We're a little too far south for the big gusts but may sneak a 50 mph gust

[Liam J]

So the 00z GFS OP has thrown up a hurricane force low for Sunday night passing over Northern Scotland which would give gusts around 100mph, looking at the GEFS it does have some support from around 11 members with some variations, some a little further south and some show an even stronger storm. 

 

ECM OP not interested in anything like as severe and is further south although the EPS have not updated yet so can't see if there is any support for the GFS storm. 

 

 

GFS -  ECM - 

 

GFS wind gusts, rather violent... 90-100mph for Northern Scotland and 60-70mph further south. 

 

Edited November 26, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

Blimey Liam that's going to pack a punch for the North if it plays out.

[Liam J]

It certainly would! The GFS is known for overdoing storms but this is 3/4 days away so can't be ignored, it has support from it's ensemble members around 50% give or take, it may be gone on the next run who knows.... Given the variation across the model output it could be another 24hrs or so before we see general agreement on storm track & intensity. 

Edited November 26, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*