Winter 2015/16

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Steve

faster than ever before?  or since the last jet stream pattern we are entering/in.  Yes I believe analogues must be treated with caution, maybe not for same reason as you....but same caution 

BFTP 

[Don]

I have a really horrible feeling we could see 70F recorded at some point during this coming winter.  After all, didn't we see 19.7C recorded in February 1998 during the last super El Nino?

Edited November 8, 2015 by Don

[Weather-history]

I have a really horrible feeling we could see 70F recorded at some point during this coming winter.  After all, didn't we see 19.7C recorded in February 1998 during the last super El Nino?

Interestingly, the NAO for last winter was far more +ve than winter 1997-98 and so was the AO and yet it was 1.6C cooler than 1997-98 for the CET.

[cheese]

70F in winter would actually be a cool achievement.

[Weather-history]

Memories....flashback to 7 years ago

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/45571-the-disappearing-winters/

From the penultimate post

"Not much chance of a cold winter in the next 5 years on this basis either."

4 of the next 5 winters were below average.

[John Badrick]

Memories....flashback to 7 years ago

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/45571-the-disappearing-winters/

From the penultimate post

"Not much chance of a cold winter in the next 5 years on this basis either."

4 of the next 5 winters were below average.

It's quite reassuring, from a coldies perspective reading all the "winters over" posts and the bickering that went on in here around this time in 2009 due to the mild November. Little did they know that in a couple of weeks time they were about to experience one of the coldest winters in living memory

[Northern Sky]

Interestingly, the NAO for last winter was far more +ve than winter 1997-98 and so was the AO and yet it was 1.6C cooler than 1997-98 for the CET.

Was that down to the presence of the euro high in 98/8? Does El Nino favour a strong euro high?

[damianslaw]

Would be good to see the stats but I believe there have been a number of mild Novembers followed by cold winters, mild and wet ones.. 1978 a good example and 2009.

 

Nov 84 and Nov 86 were preety mild I believe.

 

Conversely we've had cold Novembers followed by mild winters, 1988 being a classic example.

 

Its proof you shouldn't pattern match.

 

Its more about the prevailing synoptic pattern, depth and location of the PV, how the Jetstream behaves etc..

[lassie23]

Winter 2015/2016, where the hell are you? :search: Hope IAPENNELL returns and puts us out of our misery soon. Two pretty accurate winter forecasts from him in a row so far. Hope he does one this winter too. He predicted the non stop winter storms of 2013-2014

Edited November 9, 2015 by lassie23

[throwoff]

Still very early days. 

I have managed to keep calm this year and not start looking for anything cold in FI!

 

Many weeks yet before winter proper.

[MP-R]

Winter 2015/2016, where the hell are you? :search: Hope IAPENNELL returns and puts us out of our misery soon. Two pretty accurate winter forecasts from him in a row so far. Hope he does one this winter too. He predicted the non stop winter storms of 2013-2014

 

All in good time. Looking through recent(ish) records, the earliest I've had lying snow is 25th November, in 2005. So I try not to get too worried about winter weather until the final third of the month. Although, I'd be partial to a brisk northerly anytime just for the crisp blue sky and frosty nights. 

[stubbys]

Looks like it might be an interesting winter after all

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11983384/Three-months-of-storms-set-to-batter-UK.html

[cheese]

All in good time. Looking through recent(ish) records, the earliest I've had lying snow is 25th November, in 2005. So I try not to get too worried about winter weather until the final third of the month. Although, I'd be partial to a brisk northerly anytime just for the crisp blue sky and frosty nights. 

Most Novembers have no snow for most places in England. Here, we average about 1-2 days of falling snow, but lying snow only occurs every few years. Certainly shouldn't expect much, or anything.

Edited November 9, 2015 by cheese

[reef]

Most Novembers have no snow for most places in England. Here, we average about 1-2 days of falling snow, but lying snow only occurs every few years. Certainly shouldn't expect much, or anything.

Indeed, we average 1.2 days of falling sleet/snow and 0.5 days of snow lying at 0900.

 

We haven't had either in November since 2010 now, which is actually the longest run yet.

[cheese]

Indeed, we average 1.2 days of falling sleet/snow and 0.5 days of snow lying at 0900.

 

We haven't had either in November since 2010 now, which is actually the longest run yet.

We had both in 2013, but it was transient and slushy. Funnily enough, it was our only lying snow for the 'winter'. It occurred overnight though so wouldn't count as a snow lying day using Met Office guidelines.

Edited November 9, 2015 by cheese

[MP-R]

Most Novembers have no snow for most places in England. Here, we average about 1-2 days of falling snow, but lying snow only occurs every few years. Certainly shouldn't expect much, or anything.

 

That doesn't sound right to me. I can think of plenty of Novembers with snow across various parts of the UK. 2013, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, and 2001 come to mind. That also sounds like a remarkably low number of days of falling snow. I average more than that down here, but then my personal records only go back to 2002.

[Nick L]

November discussion is probably more suited to the Autumn thread folks

[cheese]

Ah, come on Nick - it's all related to the upcoming winter. I think mods should back away from the 'no off topic posts ever' stance. That being said, feel free to move to the autumn thread as I find it an interesting topic.

 

 

That doesn't sound right to me. I can think of plenty of Novembers with snow across various parts of the UK. 2013, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, and 2001 come to mind. That also sounds like a remarkably low number of days of falling snow. I average more than that down here, but then my personal records only go back to 2002.

 

I said England - more specifically low-land England, where the vast majority of people live. Most places in low-land England actually average less than 1 day of snow falling in November, and certainly less than 1 day with snow on the ground.

 

 

Edited November 9, 2015 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ah, come on Nick - it's all related to the upcoming winter. I think mods should back away from the 'no off topic posts ever' stance. That being said, feel free to move to the autumn thread as I find it an interesting topic.

 

 

 

I said England - more specifically low-land England, where the vast majority of people live. Most places in low-land England actually average less than 1 day of snow falling in November, and certainly less than 1 day with snow on the ground.

 

 

 

Yes can see from that, looks like just hills that average +1 days in Nov, certainly less than 1 here, not seen Nov snow since 2010

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest Glosea output looks good to me....Scandi trough and chilly

 

[Hocus Pocus]

Latest Glosea output looks good to me....Scandi trough and chilly

 

Looks like a upgrade for colder conditions to my eye, wouldn't take much in the way of adjustments for that to be a cracking anomaly for the winter.

[Timmytour]

I posted this some time ago in the

just for fun... when will be the next 'proper' above average month

thread

 

I think that. despite a potentially warm beginning, October will end up enough below average to warrant the description "chilly"

However, i think both November and December will be considerably above average, with Christmas being mild and foggy

However it wasn't enough to get the Daily Express knocking at my door asking for permission to use it!

Maybe however my later winter forecast might.... I'm thinking that around the 14-16 January the weather will turn significantly and we will start to get colder periods, that will have been far and few between before then, with at times very cold spells that will last well into February. Towards the end of February I expect things to warm up fairly dramatically so that, for a time, flooding will be a risk

Edited November 9, 2015 by Timmytour

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looks like it might be an interesting winter after all

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11983384/Three-months-of-storms-set-to-batter-UK.html

 

The Met Office also warned of a severe drop in temperatures in the New Year caused by "sudden stratospheric warmings" where bitter easterly winds chill Britain.

 

Taken from your report.....well Fergie updated today on Gloseas5 etc and that quote doesn't fit....where did that quote come from.  Fergie, if you read this...any ideas or poetic lincence?

 

BFTP  

[Hocus Pocus]

Taken from your report.....well Fergie updated today on Gloseas5 etc and that quote doesn't fit....where did that quote come from.  Fergie, if you read this...any ideas or poetic lincence?

 

BFTP

What I don't get is how can you forecast a SSW a couple of months ahead, or am I misinterpreting the word sudden?

[radiohead]

Latest Glosea output looks good to me....Scandi trough and chilly

 

 

Average to slightly above average temps (far southeast)