Winter 2015/16

[MPG]

The wonders of altitude. The number of times snow fell here last winter and the absence of it settling was really frustrating, yet only 100m further up and it settled. In fact the Mendip had a few such falls. Maybe any Pm westerlies this year will be better for lower ground too.

I only remember snow actually falling on one occasion in the early morning, that was it last winter (it only settled for an hour or two). You must be mixing up your winters, I only have one period of 'snow' falling in my records. I remember last winter very well, I was saying all along that every winter I see something 'white' falling from the sky, but last winter there was just one occasion. I remember of couple of days with hail falling, giving a covering.

 

Edit...not day a period of a couple of hours around 6.30am.

Edited October 29, 2015 by MPG

[jethro]

I only remember snow actually falling on one occasion in the early morning, that was it last winter (it only settled for an hour or two). You must be mixing up your winters, I only have one period of 'snow' falling in my records. I remember last winter very well, I was saying all along that every winter I see something 'white' falling from the sky, but last winter there was just one occasion. I remember of couple of days with hail falling, giving a covering.

 

Edit...not day a period of a couple of hours around 6.30am.

 

I live up in the Mendip hills, and although I don't keep records and it could be argued I'm going slightly senile, I don't remember snow falling much last year either. If memory serves me correctly, there was one, possibly two days where there was a dusting, at best an inch, which melted away very quickly.  

 

I'm hoping we get some this year but to be honest, having tried to keep track of the various 'big driver' indicators and all the info available on here, the signals appear to be very conflicting - possibly more conflicting than usual??

[NorthernRab]

The wonders of altitude. The number of times snow fell here last winter and the absence of it settling was really frustrating, yet only 100m further up and it settled. In fact the Mendip had a few such falls. Maybe any Pm westerlies this year will be better for lower ground too.

Last year was quite snowy here to all levels but it was quite transient in nature, we'd have a day of snow followed by some melt with some more snow a couple of days later. Not a great winter but any means but there were some very major storms (one which led to 90-100mph winds) and a lot of brief but quite considerable falls of snow.

Edited October 29, 2015 by NorthernRab

[johnholmes]

Im glad this Continental HP cell is here now and not deep in Winter.......Im looking forward to a Pattern change come end of November with a lovely backed West Scandi High cell allowing for fog frosts and colder weather, then migrating North North West for a lovely snowy Mid December NE to occur bringing snow and ice and cold...........Yum...and staying in place until March

 

I expect you believe in Santa Claus as well!

[Costa Del Fal]

Im glad this Continental HP cell is here now and not deep in Winter.......Im looking forward to a Pattern change come end of November with a lovely backed West Scandi High cell allowing for fog frosts and colder weather, then migrating North North West for a lovely snowy Mid December NE to occur bringing snow and ice and cold...........Yum...and staying in place until March

You keep telling yourself that pretty thought.

[chionomaniac]

I think the metoffice has improved in recent years with seasonal blog discussions about the likely drivers like this.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/29/what-are-the-prospects-for-the-weather-in-the-coming-winter/

[Paul]

Make your October HO-PI vote here 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84310-ho-pi-winter-index-october-vote/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I expect you believe in Santa Claus as well!

 

 

And what is wrong with that john?

 

BFTP

[seaside 60]

I think the metoffice has improved in recent years with seasonal blog discussions about the likely drivers like this.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/29/what-are-the-prospects-for-the-weather-in-the-coming-winter/

Yes interesting read.

However it must be noted that 28th oct 2010 there is no forecast of the mega cold spell that was coming.

It will be interesting after this Octobers blog to see how close their thoughts are.

[blizzard81]

I think the metoffice has improved in recent years with seasonal blog discussions about the likely drivers like this.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/29/what-are-the-prospects-for-the-weather-in-the-coming-winter/

Quite a long blog for the met but the long and short of it is the met playing the percentage game of el nino's leading to greater chance of colder late winter.

[Nick F]

Nothing typical about our current weather set up and the El Nino winter of 97-98

The thought of a High stuck over Europe giving a bland winter set me off on a look back.

The winter was mild,Wet and at times extremely windy.A notable wind storm in Jan 98 that was only surpassed by the 87 'hurricane' and the 'Burns day storm' in Jan 90 over England.

Not much snow for anyone that year, but some hope perhaps this year as early signs seem to be winter not following the 97-98 Atlantic low fest.

Record El Nino and solar minimum in 97-98 one would have hoped that would have spawned a cold second half to that winter, but it turned out very mild in Jan and Feb 98. Then we have a moderate El Nino and solar minimum during winter 09-10 and hey presto, a cold winter, especially Jan '10. Goes to show there are many variables at play, which can make it a mugs game to LRF!

Now we have a strong El Nino, westerly QBO, decreasing solar activity from its peak in 2014, hints of SSW events later in the winter from MetO, a cold N Atlantic, good start to SAI - to name but a few. So many drivers to take in, some favouring towards mild, some towards colder, though a lot seem to point to a mild start to winter for now.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Nick F

[feb1991blizzard]

I live up in the Mendip hills, and although I don't keep records and it could be argued I'm going slightly senile, I don't remember snow falling much last year either. If memory serves me correctly, there was one, possibly two days where there was a dusting, at best an inch, which melted away very quickly.  

 

I'm hoping we get some this year but to be honest, having tried to keep track of the various 'big driver' indicators and all the info available on here, the signals appear to be very conflicting - possibly more conflicting than usual??

 

 

I actually disagree this year, this is the first time I can remember that the analogues produced in the strat and winter / seasonal forecast threads are completely backed up by the Met Office contingency and Glosea5, a very straightforward forecast, I am nailing my colours to the mast now, obviously there are ranges, but the chances of a bitter winter overall are practically zero, we could still have a slightly below average winter if we get cooler zonality in the first half and a cold February but I am going to go above average December, above average Jan, and Feb the biggest chance of a proper cold spell, I think a cold spring is very likely.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just had some new LED street lights fitted on my road. Just got to patiently wait for the snow now to test them out

[feb1991blizzard]

Just had some new LED street lights fitted on my road. Just got to patiently wait for the snow now to test them out

 

My guess is it will be Jan before you get the chance.

[Cheshire Freeze]

My guess is it will be Jan before you get the chance.

 

My guess is we'll get at least one polar NW'ly before then. Some of my most memorable snowfalls have come in generally unsettled periods with cold NW'lys digging in behind an LP. Probably memorable because they stand out within the mostly wet dirge!

[feb1991blizzard]

My guess is we'll get at least one polar NW'ly before then. Some of my most memorable snowfalls have come in generally unsettled periods with cold NW'lys digging in behind an LP. Probably memorable because they stand out within the mostly wet dirge!

 

 

True actually, forgot your location.

[solarcycle]

I actually disagree this year, this is the first time I can remember that the analogues produced in the strat and winter / seasonal forecast threads are completely backed up by the Met Office contingency and Glosea5, a very straightforward forecast, I am nailing my colours to the mast now, obviously there are ranges, but the chances of a bitter winter overall are practically zero, we could still have a slightly below average winter if we get cooler zonality in the first half and a cold February but I am going to go above average December, above average Jan, and Feb the biggest chance of a proper cold spell, I think a cold spring is very likely.

 

A very straight forward forecast? I'd say that is a very brave statement but hats off   to you if you get it right.

[jethro]

I actually disagree this year, this is the first time I can remember that the analogues produced in the strat and winter / seasonal forecast threads are completely backed up by the Met Office contingency and Glosea5, a very straightforward forecast, I am nailing my colours to the mast now, obviously there are ranges, but the chances of a bitter winter overall are practically zero, we could still have a slightly below average winter if we get cooler zonality in the first half and a cold February but I am going to go above average December, above average Jan, and Feb the biggest chance of a proper cold spell, I think a cold spring is very likely.

I admire your confidence, really I do.

I'm just an interested bystander who keeps an eye on the forecast because as a gardener, the weather has a huge impact on my day to day life. I find this whole long range forecasting stuff a bit of a black art, try to pick my way through to get a general idea. Nick F has posted above that the signs are conflicting, he's a clever chap, knows his stuff so I'll take comfort that it's not just a numpty like me who thinks the vast array of variables are not making it easy to come up with a firm idea of what lays ahead for the next few months.

[summer blizzard]

I think that winter 13 will be a decent analogue. Stormy December, cold Jan and Feb. I don't think March will be special though.

[knocker]

The latest from the Cornish seasonal desk indicates a pattern change around mid November to more zonality which presages wet, warm and windy for December and January.

[Gavin Hannah]

The latest from the Cornish seasonal desk indicates a pattern change around mid November to more zonality which presages wet, warm and windy for December and January.

 

As much as I would hate to see that come to fruition, I wouldn't be surprised. That big puddle to our left can be a right pain in the A*£$ some times and just a big party pooper!

[JoeShmoe]

The latest from the Cornish seasonal desk indicates a pattern change around mid November to more zonality which presages wet, warm and windy for December and January.

 

I think that seems to be a general concensus from most of the seasonal predictions i'd pay any credence too. A long route to cold weather i suspect with the possibility of a colder Feb, we will see though

[Hocus Pocus]

The latest from the Cornish seasonal desk indicates a pattern change around mid November to more zonality which presages wet, warm and windy for December and January.

The writing was on the wall as soon as it looked likely that this Nino would be a strong event. How many strong Nino events have seen a colder than average winter, by my recollection very few if any.

[blizzard81]

I think many people on here are going to be pleasantly surprised with regards to the upcoming winter. I think the last third of November will see our first cold spell followed by a wet and mild first 10 days of December but then a cold second half of December. That's as far as I will go for now. Jan and Feb are way too far into the distant future for any predictions. Nothing really scientific with my prediction, just pure old gut instinct lol.

Edited October 30, 2015 by blizzard81

[solarcycle]

I think many people on here are going to be pleasantly surprised with regards to the upcoming winter. I think the last third of November will see our first cold spell followed by a wet and mild first 10 days of December but then a cold second half of December. That's as far as I will go for now. Jan and Feb are way too far into the distant future for any predictions. Nothing really scientific with my prediction, just pure old gut instinct lol.

 

Can you tell me this week's euromillions numbers?