Winter 2015/16

[Summer Sun]

The latest WSI update covers the first 2 months of winter in this update they are going for below average temperatures with November near normal

 

WSI Europe: Lack of North Atlantic Blocking Expected Again This Winter

 

Another “4-W Winter†Appears More Likely Than Not

 

This winter (November - January period), WSI (Weather Services International) expects another “4-W Winter†with lack of North Atlantic blocking. The seasonal forecast indicates slightly below-normal temperatures for residents in the UK and western France region, and above-normal temperatures expected across southern mainland Europe. A wet and windy period is expected across Western Europe as well, with dry and calmer conditions setting up across southeastern Europe.

 

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “The last two winters have generally been ‘4-W winters’ (westerly/warm/wet/windy) across much of Europe, as strong low pressure across the North Atlantic has limited the amount of colder/drier air that can penetrate southward into the mainland. While El Nino conditions are much stronger this year than last, most of our best indicators are suggesting another winter characterized by strong westerlies across much of the continent.

 

Given the unusually strong high-latitude blocking observed during late summer and early autumn, it may be that the polar vortex is weak enough to enable more blocking this winter that would favor colder weather. However, at this time, we think this colder scenario is unlikely.â€

 

For the upcoming winter season, WSI forecasts the following conditions:

• November
  • Nordic Region*: Warmer than normal west, colder east
  • UK*: Near normal
  • Northern Mainland*: Warmer than normal west, colder east
  • Southern Mainland*: Warmer than normal west, colder east
• December
  • Nordic Region : Warmer than normal
  • UK: Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland: Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland: Warmer than normal west, cooler far Southeast
• January
  • Nordic Region: Colder than normal
  • UK: Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland: Warmer than normal east
  • Southern Mainland: Warmer than normal east

 

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-lack-of-north-atlantic-blocking-expected-again-this-winter

[mountain shadow]

A few forecasts now saying that the UK will get a colder Winter but not because of blocking but because the lower Atlantic SSTS.

Will we get snow from Canada?

[NorthYorksWeather]

Usually when you have a polar maritime shot in winter uppers are modified so it's hard to get low level snowfall, with the Atlantic being cooler this could cause less modification and be the difference between snow above 200m and snow to all levels.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What I was thinking and hoping for vizzy, snow fans above 300m mind you, this looks to be a very snowy winter, with westerlies snowier than usual

[Harve]

not this part of midlands! Not a covering 2 winters in a row

You mean the West Midlands didn't have any covering at all in 2013-2014 while not too far away, in Derbyshire, there were scenes like these?

 

edit: ignore me. This was obviously 2012-2013. 2013-2014 was of course snowless for low altitudes but I didn't spend any of 2014-2015 in England. I'm surprised the past winter was completely snowless. 

Edited October 22, 2015 by Harve

[cyclonic happiness]

You mean the West Midlands didn't have any covering at all in 2013-2014 while not too far away, in Derbyshire, there were scenes like these?

 

edit: ignore me. This was obviously 2012-2013. 2013-2014 was of course snowless for low altitudes but I didn't spend any of 2014-2015 in England. I'm surprised the past winter was completely snowless. 

He's right, we had one snowfall last winter which stuck for around 3 hours, the winter before's snowfall didn't even settle.

 

It's been absolute hell for us snow lovers here in the Midlands ,well, this part :-(

[PolarWarsaw]

Winter in lowland England is getting worse and worse virtually every year. For those that need an almost constant fix, I'd suggest you follow AmericanWX (the US weather forum) where virtually all of the northern sections of the country have something to talk about. For example, if it's not snowing in the NW, the chances are vermont has a good live stream..or discussion on snow.. the live weather streams are very good too. It made my winter last year entirely more enjoyable as I pretty much spent all of my weather dedicated time away from what can be..a very depressing UK mod thread over on the US site state-hopping around other events. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/

[Dorsetbred]

Winter in lowland England is getting worse and worse virtually every year. For those that need an almost constant fix, I'd suggest you follow AmericanWX (the US weather forum) where virtually all of the northern sections of the country have something to talk about. For example, if it's not snowing in the NW, the chances are vermont has a good live stream..or discussion on snow.. the live weather streams are very good too. It made my winter last year entirely more enjoyable as I pretty much spent all of my weather dedicated time away from what can be..a very depressing UK mod thread over on the US site state-hopping around other events. 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/

Interesting to read. How we in the UK, are content to discuss a cover of any snowfall, these guys debate 5-10-100" this season, same ol' sh*t different depths 

[Dancerwithwings]

Interesting to read. How we in the UK, are content to discuss a cover of any snowfall, these guys debate 5-10-100" this season, same ol' sh*t different depths 

Don't care    when it does happen here in the UK nobody is more passionate than us on net weather, talking of been content, I'm never content 

Edited October 22, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[mountain shadow]

Accuweather Canadian forecast is out...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-canada-winter-forecast-record-warmth/53084188

 

At face value, a predicted more Northerly jet might not seem to good for the UK snow wise, however, with an El Nino driven stronger Southerly arm of the jet, we may see the Northerly arm pulled Southwards allowing for better chances of height rises over Scandnavia. Height rises over Greenland may be less likely this year I think.

[Weather Boy]

The latest WSI update covers the first 2 months of winter in this update they are going for below average temperatures with November near normal

 

 

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-lack-of-north-atlantic-blocking-expected-again-this-winter

 

Interesting, thanks Gavin.

 

Struggling to think of what scenario that would end up with a scenario where the UK is cold whilst most of the rest of Europe is "4W".  Two possibilities: one is a near constant northerly given Scandi trough.  Possible, but such set-ups don't usually last for weeks on end. 

 

Second is a southerly jet, with the UK consequently getting easterlies as LP's head for France rather than Scotland.  Trouble with that is that this forecast says that there will be a lack of blocking, which surely is necessary to cause the depressions to dive south.  Also, it doesn't have Scandinavia in the same category of the UK, which suggests that they are not getting the same flow, which is puzzling. 

 

Maybe there is method in the madness (I guess you have to pay to find out!) but I am certainly sceptical, although I am sceptical in relation to all forecasts at that kind of range!

[cheese]

Don't care when it does happen here in the UK nobody is more passionate than us on net weather, talking of been content, I'm never content

Yeah, don't care about snow 3000 miles away. Only care about snowfall in my back yard. 100 inches in Vermont is no good to me unless I'm there to experience it - and even then it isn't the same as experiencing it at home where it's a novelty and worthy of news.

Winters are definitely not getting worse here - maybe they are getting worse in the Midlands and southern England. Last winter we got a few inches and the normal number of snow days.. and we are below 100m.

Edited October 22, 2015 by cheese

[beng]

"Winters are definitely not getting worse here - maybe they are getting worse in the Midlands and southern England. "

 

Don't think so we had a few cracking winter spells in recent years Feb 2009, Dec 2009, Jan 2010, Dec 2010, Feb 2012, Jan 2013.  The last 2 winters have been rubbish - but this is the UK and we're never going to get cold every year. Even in the height of the LIA, there were mild winters. :-)

 

The run from 1995-2007 though was atrocious - so it's been better in the last decade if anything.

[Dancerwithwings]

"Getting worse for the bottom half of the UK", DON'T BE DAFT!!!  It's just the norm!!!

Just because the snow & cold between 2009 to 2013 was damn good in fact exceptional in some parts 

But some on here expect every winter to be the same, it ain't going to happen.

Last year i had snow which lasted 2 hours at 2am, by the morning it was gone and that was it for me, in which was poor but you ain't going to hear me moaning.

Edited October 22, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[cheeky_monkey]

Yeah, don't care about snow 3000 miles away. Only care about snowfall in my back yard. 100 inches in Vermont is no good to me unless I'm there to experience it - and even then it isn't the same as experiencing it at home where it's a novelty and worthy of news.

Winters are definitely not getting worse here - maybe they are getting worse in the Midlands and southern England. Last winter we got a few inches and the normal number of snow days.. and we are below 100m.

Exactly I do not understand why it would be so fascinating to sit in a forum discussing snow thousands of miles away when it chucking it down with rain outside your door..lets be honest somewhere in the world on every day it will be snowing..are people that desperate for snow???

[Nights King]

Exactly I do not understand why it would be so fascinating to sit in a forum discussing snow thousands of miles away when it chucking it down with rain outside your door..lets be honest somewhere in the world on every day it will be snowing..are people that desperate for snow???

 

In short Yes after 2 awful winters    lowland areas of southern England have had virtually nothing and even hills down south have only had a few days over last 2 years.

 

Winters are not getting worse though! try growing up in the nineties for mild winters 

Edited October 22, 2015 by Nights King

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting, thanks Gavin.

 

Struggling to think of what scenario that would end up with a scenario where the UK is cold whilst most of the rest of Europe is "4W".  Two possibilities: one is a near constant northerly given Scandi trough.  Possible, but such set-ups don't usually last for weeks on end. 

 

Second is a southerly jet, with the UK consequently getting easterlies as LP's head for France rather than Scotland.  Trouble with that is that this forecast says that there will be a lack of blocking, which surely is necessary to cause the depressions to dive south.  Also, it doesn't have Scandinavia in the same category of the UK, which suggests that they are not getting the same flow, which is puzzling. 

 

Maybe there is method in the madness (I guess you have to pay to find out!) but I am certainly sceptical, although I am sceptical in relation to all forecasts at that kind of range!

I think it's quite easy myself to infer that he cold North Atlantic anomalies will the play the biggest role in the localised cooling in NW Europe.

[PolarWarsaw]

Exactly I do not understand why it would be so fascinating to sit in a forum discussing snow thousands of miles away when it chucking it down with rain outside your door..lets be honest somewhere in the world on every day it will be snowing..are people that desperate for snow???

 

The same could be said for the numerous millions of people that follow storm chasers each year... could it not? And no, we aren't. But it makes up to some good viewing if you can see the chaos/enjoyment that you crave at home each year..much like storm chasers? Don't see the issue with it to be honest.

 

Yeah, don't care about snow 3000 miles away. Only care about snowfall in my back yard. 100 inches in Vermont is no good to me unless I'm there to experience it - and even then it isn't the same as experiencing it at home where it's a novelty and worthy of news.

Winters are definitely not getting worse here - maybe they are getting worse in the Midlands and southern England. Last winter we got a few inches and the normal number of snow days.. and we are below 100m.

 

It's certainly a good replacement when the chance of snow in your back garden comes along for perhaps a couple of days per year. 

 

 

In fairness my comment was a bit generalised and sweeping, probably because of a couple of crap winters IMBY and a general blase attitude to what has been a predominantly boring couple of years weatherwise. But I don't see the issue in reading and trying to virtually enjoy forecasts/discussions we could only dream of. I do agree with people however, when they say there's nobody more passionate when things do fall our way, perhaps that's because they were so few and far between. 

 

Meh, it is what it is. 

Edited October 22, 2015 by PolarWarsaw

[Methuselah]

The same could be said for the numerous millions of people that follow storm chasers each year... could it not? 

 

 

Except that no-one, to my knowledge, goes storm-chasing in Staffs?

[PolarWarsaw]

Except that no-one, to my knowledge, goes storm-chasing in Staffs?

 

Weather09 begs to differ! The point was..that people join in virtual storm-chasing every year regardless of their backyard, all around the world. 

 

Did I miss something about the entire concept of this forum?

 

My OP simply mentioned that if people wanted an alternative to follow a dicussion/stream with snow this winter..when things inevitable get boring at home, then here it is. Not sure why that seems to have poked a few arsey responses. It came in very handy last year during those incredible Buffalo/Boston snows.

 

All weather fans at the end of the day aren't we?

 

If a big event comes this year, people will be thankful of the link.

Edited October 22, 2015 by PolarWarsaw

[mcweather]

Good to see the winter thread up and running in anticipation of the new coming winter season.

A great many competing factors this year that could have a bearing on the outcome , not least the colder than normal area of the Atlantic

which has the Met Office exercised enough for them to have  done  a feature about it on the BBC weather website recently.

 

Here's something to throw into the mix. During my research for the Blizzard of 78 book a few years back I came across a quote from a highly respected Met Office forecaster regarding the winter of 77/78 who noted how in that winter westerlies and even southwesterlies (returning polar maritime) were colder than normal

and often brought sleet and snow rather than rain even to low levels. I  wonder if the Atlantic cold blob might have a similar effect this year. 

Certainly wouldn't mind another great Southwestern blizzard like 1978!

[cheese]

Weather09 begs to differ! The point was..that people join in virtual storm-chasing every year regardless of their backyard, all around the world.

Did I miss something about the entire concept of this forum?

My OP simply mentioned that if people wanted an alternative to follow a dicussion/stream with snow this winter..when things inevitable get boring at home, then here it is. Not sure why that seems to have poked a few arsey responses. It came in very handy last year during those incredible Buffalo/Boston snows.

All weather fans at the end of the day aren't we?

If a big event comes this year, people will be thankful of the link.

I might take a fleeting interest, but seeing epic snowfall elsewhere in the world is more annoying than anything, if you have nothing yourself. It's why I don't bother tracking storms in France or Germany - it's simply a reminder that somewhere else is having fun and you're not. In fact, that's why I avoid looking at radars during UK storm outbreaks - because if I miss out but other places get plastered, I'll just be annoyed.

Looking at snowfalls 3000 miles away just does not excite me.

Edited October 22, 2015 by cheese

[damianslaw]

Important indicator for the winter ahead and clue will be the upper temps in the coming weeks under a westerly airflow.. we've not really had one so far this autumn, but the coming days will deliver a strong westerly flow, anyone know what the average uppers we should expect from a straight on westerly at this stage in the year.

 

I'll be making  a note of uppers this weekend and max temps in Scotland, if we see 8-10 degree maxes then this is a good signal westerly airstreams will be colder than normal this winter..

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Came across this following another link that Bullseye posted in another thread     Thought it might be of interest to many on here. I don't know how reliable the study and information is, but it will be fascinating to see if they are onto something. 

[Hocus Pocus]

Important indicator for the winter ahead and clue will be the upper temps in the coming weeks under a westerly airflow.. we've not really had one so far this autumn, but the coming days will deliver a strong westerly flow, anyone know what the average uppers we should expect from a straight on westerly at this stage in the year.

I'll be making a note of uppers this weekend and max temps in Scotland, if we see 8-10 degree maxes then this is a good signal westerly airstreams will be colder than normal this winter..

Yes I concur that if we see colder uppers than we've been accustomed to over the last two decades then there's every chance that this coming winter will pack quite a potent punch when winds swing around to the W/NW. I think the last time we experienced that sort of set up was January 84. Edited October 23, 2015 by Hocus Pocus