Winter 2015/16

[terrier]

Think with this strong El Niño we will see a wet mild Dec Jan which the met office seem confident on at this point in time. And at least it might stop the express and madden posting such garbage every winter

[Polar Maritime]

I think many people on here are going to be pleasantly surprised with regards to the upcoming winter.

I get a surprise every year in my location, Its just a case of 'when' ☺

Edited October 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Weather Boy]

The writing was on the wall as soon as it looked likely that this Nino would be a strong event. How many strong Nino events have seen a colder than average winter, by my recollection very few if any.

 

Roger Smith doesn't agree with you: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-40 (post 795).  He says that there is little if any correlation, although slight tendency to produce slightly below average Dec and Jans.

 

So, unless he's making it up, you're wrong.

 

The Met Office say that the impact of El Nino is unclear.  Hardly surprising seeing as it is on the other side of the world.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think many people on here are going to be pleasantly surprised with regards to the upcoming winter. I think the last third of November will see our first cold spell followed by a wet and mild first 10 days of December but then a cold second half of December. That's as far as I will go for now. Jan and Feb are way too far into the distant future for any predictions. Nothing really scientific with my prediction, just pure old gut instinct lol.

 

 

I think the people who are going to feel pleasant about the 1st half of winter are Gavin, Scott, Rob and Ian Brown (if he is still around), and maybe a few 'thin veil' mildies like IDO, Purga etc.

[blizzard81]

Can you tell me this week's euromillions numbers?

I would gladly tell you but I don't want to share the jackpot:)

I get a surprise every year in my location, Its just a case of 'when' ☺

I am jealous way too low down here in my location.

[MPG]

Think with this strong El Niño we will see a wet mild Dec Jan which the met office seem confident on at this point in time. And at least it might stop the express and madden posting such garbage every winter

Can you post to where the Met are saying that? That's not what their charts are showing.

[Liam J]

Can you post to where the Met are saying that? That's not what their charts are showing.

I think he is referring to this Met Office blog on the coming winter.

 

 

 

Most of the global drivers discussed above tend to increase the chances of westerly weather patterns during our November to January outlook period. Our numerical prediction model, being sensitive to these drivers, also predicts a higher-than-normal chance of westerly conditions. This results in an outlook for an increased chance of milder- and wetter-than-usual conditions, and a decreased chance of colder and drier conditions, for the UK. Our outlook also indicates an increase in the risk of windy or even stormy weather.

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/29/what-are-the-prospects-for-the-weather-in-the-coming-winter/

[John Badrick]

The writing was on the wall as soon as it looked likely that this Nino would be a strong event. How many strong Nino events have seen a colder than average winter, by my recollection very few if any.

 

HAHAHAH!!! all this talk is hilarious October the 30th and the writing is already on the wall for this winter. At this point I would just like to reiterate what seaside 60 wrote few posts back:

"However it must be noted that 28th oct 2010 there is no forecast of the mega cold spell that was coming"

 especially so that we are in a situation atmospherically and SST wise not seen before, so in new territory i.e not many analogues to compare   

[solarcycle]

I think the people who are going to feel pleasant about the 1st half of winter are Gavin, Scott, Rob and Ian Brown (if he is still around), and maybe a few 'thin veil' mildies like IDO, Purga etc.

 

That last one I've underlined. Is he the one that comes on in winter and does thinly disguised mild trolling and then gets all defensive when called out? The fact he hasn't logged on since March should tell you something. And in IDOs defence he does make well reasoned and well evidenced posts even if he does have a bit of a fetish for posting 15 day means   Gavin is a balanced poster actually, he will acknowledge cold if it is genuinely on the way. Besides, on the 30 October it is a fools errand to make cast iron predictions about winter.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please discuss the upcoming Winter, And not other members posting styles.

Thanks, PM.

Edited October 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[seabreeze86]

In my opinion todays CFS V2 has Febuary nailed.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2015102912/cfs-3-2-2016.png?12

 

[Methuselah]

What's wrong with a bit of honesty? Nobody, not even those aided by the world's most powerful supercomputers, can accurately and repeatedly predict the weather for the next six months...?

 

If anyone could, this forum (and many others like it) would cease to be?

[solarcycle]

What's wrong with a bit of honesty? Nobody, not even those aided by the world's most powerful supercomputers, can accurately and repeatedly predict the weather for the next six months...?

 

If anyone could, this forum (and many others like it) would cease to be?

 

I'm all for honesty! But heck, I'll put my neck on the line and say that Roger J Smith's prediction of late winter cold feels like the form horse for me at the moment.

[knocker]

Charts weatherbell

 

[Bristawl Si]

My thoughts on Winter are not much different from previous years, because this is what normally happens in a UK Winter, namely....

 

North/South split. Colder in North with a number of snowy spells but only lasting a couple of days at a time. Scotland, esp the Highlands seeing copious amounts of snow.

The South - next to nowt re cold and snow bar a few days scattered thru December, January & February and mainly on the hills and moors.

[reef]

Charts weatherbell

 

The less said about those charts the better I think!

 

They're quite different charts to 2013/14 say, but the result would be pretty much the same: mild (potentially very), wet and windy, especially for the north-western quarter.

[cheese]

The less said about those charts the better I think!

 

They're quite different charts to 2013/14 say, but the result would be pretty much the same: mild (potentially very), wet and windy, especially for the north-western quarter.

Goes against nearly everything I've seen so far which has pointed towards a slightly cooler than average winter for NW Europe.

Edited November 9, 2015 by Paul

[phil nw.]

Historically a strong nino going into Winter is not great if looking for a below average season.

Just looking at all CET's for years where EN is at 1.5C or above going into November we can see no such season in recent times which has seen a cold Winter.

 

Year      CET

1957/8   4.2

1965/6   4.4

1972/3   4.9

1982/3   4.3

1987/8   5.3

1991/2   4.6

1997/8   6.1

 

 

The 1997/8 Winter was a very strong event-peaking at 2.3C which seems the way this one is heading.The anomaly charts for that Winter are a cold lovers nightmare which coincidently also saw a west based QBO.

 

That pattern of mid-latitude  Euro blocking to the east and south along with the Atlantic trough meant we were on the warm side of the wavelengths for much of that Winter hence the high CET.

Of course no 2 seasons are exactly the same and even in zonal or westerly Winters we can't rule out colder snaps from the north or north west but these patterns don't see a lot of prolonged blocking at high latitudes.

The one caveat is later in the season the possibility of a Strat. warming which could split the vortex.

 

I hope the coming Winter bucks the trend of past strong Nino Winters but historical data is the reason i am not confident and why i lean towards an above average Winter overall.

 

sources

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Edited October 30, 2015 by phil nw.

[Bullseye]

Historically a strong nino going into Winter is not great if looking for a below average season.

Just looking at all CET's for years where EN is at 1.5C or above going into November we can no such season in recent times which has seen a cold Winter.

Year CET

1957/8 4.2

1965/6 4.4

1972/3 4.9

1982/3 4.3

1987/8 5.3

1991/2 4.6

1997/8 6.1

With that said, 57/58 and 65/66 winter did produce some big snow events especially in '57 producing 20" of snow further south. Adding in 1930/1940/1941 strong el ninos did give UK snowy winters so can go either way when adding in these years.

Wasn't the 2009 El Nino peaking in November at around 1.55?

Edited October 30, 2015 by Bullseye

[phil nw.]

Historically a strong nino going into Winter is not great if looking for a below average season.

Just looking at all CET's for years where EN is at 1.5C or above going into November we can no such season in recent times which has seen a cold Winter.

Year CET

1957/8 4.2

1965/6 4.4

1972/3 4.9

1982/3 4.3

1987/8 5.3

1991/2 4.6

1997/8 6.1

With that said, 57/58 and 65/66 winter did produce some big snow events especially in '57 producing 20" of snow further south. Adding in 1930/1940/1941 strong el ninos did give UK snowy winters so can go either way when adding in these years.

Wasn't the 2009 El Nino peaking in November at around 1.55?

Nino for late 2009 peaked at 1.3 Bullseye so wasn't included.

As i said short cold snaps can't be ruled out but all the years i included still had above average CET's overall.

Years before 1950 not in the analysis -ENSO data only available back to then on that link.

Edited October 30, 2015 by phil nw.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is my February prediction.

 

 

 

Except a bit more East based with the core of Heights over scandi, a bit like 7th Feb 1991.

Edited October 30, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely the London blizzard of Feb 91 with the -15 isotherm over uk. That chart is lovely just put a black hole of red over Greenland and perfect

 

I remember school parents evening got cancelled and we left early, there was f-all hardly on the ground and people were asking me why we were leaving early, I told them - now will you believe what ive been saying all week, its because the teachers were absolutely bricking it thinking that their social life was about to be impeded.

 

 

  :yahoo:                   Happiest day of my life. 

[Methuselah]

My thoughts on Winter are not much different from previous years, because this is what normally happens in a UK Winter, namely....

 

North/South split. Colder in North with a number of snowy spells but only lasting a couple of days at a time. Scotland, esp the Highlands seeing copious amounts of snow.

The South - next to nowt re cold and snow bar a few days scattered thru December, January & February and mainly on the hills and moors.

Probably not a bad expectation to have, BB!

[Dancerwithwings]

Probably not a bad expectation to have, BB!

Blimey! sit on ones fence! you might as well say 'we'll have some of this and some of that through December, January & February'... What we expect is yawn yawn yawn...

What we don't expect is the expectation that i want to hear

Edited October 30, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[summer blizzard]

The writing was on the wall as soon as it looked likely that this Nino would be a strong event. How many strong Nino events have seen a colder than average winter, by my recollection very few if any.

 

I'm not so sure, i'm cautiously optimistic. 

 

While only 98 and 83 will compare in numbers this winter, the sample size of 2 is just too small to really say much. After widening my analysis a few weeks back to include all events above 1 in the MEI i did find that while Nov, Dec and Mar have no AO bias, west and basin wide events (this event is basin wide and headed west based eventually) do display a -AO bias during Jan and Feb. 

 

No guarantee of cold weather for the UK but it does increase the likelyhood that it won't be an 07 stinker.