Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

Saturday still looking promising on the12z

 

 

 

SW flow out there tonight positively balmy between the gusts - make the most.

 

484 users - here we go

Edited November 15, 2015 by Iceaxecrampon

[Mark Neal.]

Very happy with that ECM, we don't quite get the Scandi high at T240hrs but its output is similar to the 00hrs and I think a west Scandi high/ east Greenland high combo could be on the cards. Not sure whether we have a name for that yet!

 

Overall the outlook is looking colder and the jet looks uninterested in terms of blasting east after the high topples, lots of detail yet to be decided but certainly its a relief to see that Euro high leave the scene.

Highly encouraging nick! lower heights into Europe a big thing, for me its half the battle! Interesting ECM again, trending colder. Be interesting to see ensembles in an hour 

Edited November 15, 2015 by Mark N

[tight isobar]

Ecm+ 196.

And the ecm continues' to leave an error of massiive judgement.

massive or minor error..

With flowing of longer cool

And getting cold..

Or becoming flabby with NW heights

Collapse and an' eye shot...cold shot.

I would'nt need worry it + 196 evoulution at this criucial stage.

[blizzard81]

To sum up the models today, the trend has been to increase the chances of the upcoming cold from a mere cold snap to a cold spell. I think the chance of this has gone up by at least 50% today.

[bluearmy]

west Scandi high/ east Greenland high combo could be on the cards. Not sure whether we have a name for that yet!

 

Heaven?

To sum up the models today, the trend has been to increase the chances of the upcoming cold from a mere cold snap to a cold spell. I think the chance of this has gone up by at least 50% today.

The extended London eps had a cool to cold week before recovery of temps so we were already looking at more than a snap although temps around average will feel cold considering what's gone before

[nick sussex]

Highly encouraging nick! lower heights into Europe a big thing, for me its half the battle! Interesting ECM again, trending colder. Be interesting to see ensembles in an hour 

Yes, no chance of mild weather for the UK if you have low heights over central/southern Europe. Overall very encouraging especially given what the autumn has delivered so far.

[Methuselah]

Very happy with that ECM, we don't quite get the Scandi high at T240hrs but its output is similar to the 00hrs and I think a west Scandi high/ east Greenland high combo could be on the cards. Not sure whether we have a name for that yet!

 

Overall the outlook is looking colder and the jet looks uninterested in terms of blasting east after the high topples, lots of detail yet to be decided but certainly its a relief to see that Euro high leave the scene.

Fantasy Island?

[Frosty.]

Plenty for coldies to look forward to at last as an Arctic plunge is set to sweep south through the UK by next weekend according to the Ecm 12z, so we lose the 15 celsius mild mush for something a good deal colder, we would also be looking at quite a large wind chill factor too...So, an early taste of winter is incoming and some of us will have a covering of snow with icy patches and widespread frosts which could be sharp..I'm really looking forward to this as you can probably tell...look at those 522 dam thicknesses..Awesome!

Edited November 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

It looks like we are heading towards a colder pattern with an underlating jet trending more nw-se.

The coming northerly seems the trigger as we see colder air flooding south towards the UK and W.Europe.

Thereafter with signs of repeated +ve height anomalies over the Atlantic the UK finds itself on the north(polar) side of the jet.

No suggestion yet of a substantial Arctic block so no prolonged cold as it stands but temperatures do look like remaining on the low side.

[winterof79]

First taste of winter ahead.

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/151115_1200_132.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/151115_1200_132.png

[Summer Sun]

The change to colder air takes place during Friday with -9 850's making their way into northern Scotland with -1's and 2's for the south

 

 

By Saturday all of the UK is in the cold air which sets up a cold weekend

 

 

From the start of the following week some less cold air is trying to push in from the west, but it struggles to make it across with the colder air doing its best to hold on

 

 

Get set for some big changes folks, it looks like turning much colder with some frost, Ice and snow all possible more so for higher ground, but in the north it could get down to quite low levels

[blizzard81]

First taste of winter ahead.http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/151115_1200_132.pnghttp://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/151115_1200_132.png

That looks brill for northern england, especially yorkshire Thanks for posting those.

[Thunderbolt_]

Yep, 12z ECM going for a pretty decent cold snap for late November, next weekend. Widespread frost looks very likely, as well as snow for the north. Some of this could even settle to lower ground too.

 

 

[winterof79]

That looks brill for northern england, especially yorkshire Thanks for posting those.

You are most welcome.

[knocker]

Confirmation, if any was needed, that a cold snap is on it's way this weekend from tonight's GEFS anomalies. The 6-10 has HP GOA and Greenland with a trough from the Pole through Scandinavia to southern Europe. The question is what happens to the evolution post snap. The 11-15 tends to flatten the flow over North America, adjusts the Greenland HP east and with the trough also moving east the flow backs NW over the UK which is conducive to temps around average. Await the ecm take on this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited November 15, 2015 by knocker

[Thunderbolt_]

On closer inspection of the 12z run from the GFS, it looks to me like there is some sort of polar low developing in the northerly flow. The low doesn't develop in the far reaches of the North Pole, but it develops all within cold arctic air, so it's certainly one to watch...

 

Edited November 15, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[shaky]

Boy what a difference compared to last year!!cant believe many places even in the south could see snowfall before winter has started!!maybe even laying snow!!

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All....At last we can pin down a real cold spell later this week , will be some very interesting weather for some especially for those who are exposed to the artic airmass  for instance ,East Anglia and West Wales ,Cornwall etc with some huge Pyrotecnics   Its what Im calling a" long weekend of cold weather"....a four day wonder for a few , three days for most across the nation....Very much looking forward to this cold snap!

[BlueHedgehog074]

The brand new update from the NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb mean chart tonight continues to offer some prezzies for the cold weather enthusiasts - a period of chillier weather for the UK with ridging in the Atlantic and some troughing over Eastern UK. A mean upper flow again from the North-West (green lines), so will be chilly at times. Although the details regarding how snowy it could be are still to be firmed up (sometimes it's just the case of looking out the window or something), the lower than average heights over the UK and Scandinavia area could continue to help promote possibilities for some wintry weather for places. Though high ground, I suspect, would still fair the best (although strictly speaking, these aren't the best charts to use for working out exactly how settled or unsettled it could be).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Still a bit cautious about next weekend's cold spell/snap (as there's always a slight possibility some of the models are still over-amplifying the pattern). But for those of you who are drooling with excitement, the signs keep looking encouraging.

This was also what the 12Z GFS was cooking up in its oven 2 days ago for Saturday 21st November: Western UK High Pressure system less amplified, no cold shot from the North. So things have certainly improved for cold and possible wintry weather developments since then.

[Paul]

As it's getting ever more busy in here currently, now's a really good time to have a read of the model thread guide to surviving the winter:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84360-the-model-thread-survival-guide-for-winter-201516-please-read/

[Methuselah]

Sorry about my 'will it snow in Carlisle' post...I was attempting to defuse the tension...

[DAVID SNOW]

On closer inspection of the 12z run from the GFS, it looks to me like there is some sort of polar low developing in the northerly flow. The low doesn't develop in the far reaches of the North Pole, but it develops all within cold arctic air, so it's certainly one to watch...

 

1912.png 2000.png 2012.png 2100.png 2112.png

 

I  don't think the upper temperatures are low enough for polar low formation in that arctic flow TH?

 

All models now showing some colder weather for the end of the weak, thats for sure.

'

[cold snap]

Can someone remind me where I can view ECM shorts please ?

And time there out ?

Thanks in advance

[winterof79]

Fair set on display this evening.

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

Edited November 15, 2015 by winterof79

[Allseasons-Si]

Can someone remind me where I can view ECM shorts please ?

And time there out ?

Thanks in advance

 

 

Here you go cold snap,although this is the 00z,i think the 12z comes out at 9:46pm

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

i do like the berlin one though with the more sustained cold and this is what we should look out for in an easterly

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=berlin

Edited November 15, 2015 by Allseasons-si