Winter 2015/16.

[Allseasons-Si]

As posted in the strat thread so i will post it here too,gav's latest video from yesterday

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Turning colder but brighter during the middle of next week then towards the end of the week wet, windy and milder weather looks likey to return

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35446608

Edited January 29, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Another season which is flying by does seem like 5 minutes since December 1st and now we are just 4 weeks of spring

[Weather-history]

Overnight 2nd/3rd February

 

 

 

 

 

3rd February:

 

 

 

 

[Fat Bloke]

Has it started yet? i can count on one hand how many frosts we have had especially in southern half...This and last winter has been the worst i can remember often cloudy wet & unusually mild i can see why people can get depressed with this weather day in day out.

[Snowyowl9]

Last february gave 9 air frost in a row.

[Weather-history]

A decent period during the day

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Snowing in parts of Wales this afternoon

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Still some uncertainties where some snow may fall in England on Saturday current thoughts are the Midlands but this could change

Then next week we have a cold spell coming up with northerly winds a few cm of some for some mainly in the east and on high ground elsewhere bright and crisp with frosts

Later next week it could turn milder and wetter but timings are still hard to pin down

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35546462

[The PIT]

The year without a winter. A rare bit of ice scraping on the car this morning. No air frost but a slight ground frost. So far this was a two day cool spell temps back above normal today.

[Weather-history]

Odd shower this afternoon

 

 

[damianslaw]

We only need to record 5.5 CET Feb and we will have seen the mildest winter on record in the CET series.. there is a good chance we could do it. The exceptionally strong El Nino - coupled with unfortunate developments over the stratosphere probably the two single reasons.

Looking forward to next winter already, this one has been every bit as trying as winter 13/14 with milder maxima but slightly cooler minima than that one - more rain, but without the storms. 2 mild wet shockers in the space of 3.. that clustering effect has come into play yet again.. hoping next winter sees a marked reversal in the wet mild theme.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

We only need to record 5.5 CET Feb and we will have seen the mildest winter on record in the CET series.. there is a good chance we could do it. The exceptionally strong El Nino - coupled with unfortunate developments over the stratosphere probably the two single reasons.

Looking forward to next winter already, this one has been every bit as trying as winter 13/14 with milder maxima but slightly cooler minima than that one - more rain, but without the storms. 2 mild wet shockers in the space of 3.. that clustering effect has come into play yet again.. hoping next winter sees a marked reversal in the wet mild theme.

let's look forward to the summer first! suppose my favourite season now, I mean who looks forward to 4 months of rain and gales and cooler temps all the time?

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

We only need to record 5.5 CET Feb and we will have seen the mildest winter on record in the CET series.. there is a good chance we could do it. The exceptionally strong El Nino - coupled with unfortunate developments over the stratosphere probably the two single reasons.

Looking forward to next winter already, this one has been every bit as trying as winter 13/14 with milder maxima but slightly cooler minima than that one - more rain, but without the storms. 2 mild wet shockers in the space of 3.. that clustering effect has come into play yet again.. hoping next winter sees a marked reversal in the wet mild theme.

One thing I'm pretty sure, it's going to be the wettest winter on record for some areas. About 2mm more of rainfall and it will be the wettest for our region.

 

[damianslaw]

Yes possibly the wettest, mildest and perhaps dullest on record? That would be some achievement???

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 11/02/2016 at 8:56 AM, Summer Sun said:

Still some uncertainties where some snow may fall in England on Saturday current thoughts are the Midlands but this could change

Then next week we have a cold spell coming up with northerly winds a few cm of some for some mainly in the east and on high ground elsewhere bright and crisp with frosts

Later next week it could turn milder and wetter but timings are still hard to pin down

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35546462

 

Milder and wetter you say? Surely not!! That would be a novelty! I never thought I would experience a winter that would be as wretchedly poor as 2013/14. That winter, as dire as it was did manage to deliver a half hour snowfall on one day - 11th February, the day before the huge windstorm that brought 108 mph winds to Aberdaron in NW Wales.

This one has failed to deliver even that one solitary snowfall...and time is fast running out. Never mind the fat lady clearing her throat, I'm clearing my throat ready to deliver a loud chorus of "Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish"

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes possibly the wettest, mildest and perhaps dullest on record? That would be some achievement???

all linked though really, mild means dull, mild means wet and wet means dull

[summer blizzard]

Some interesting findings regarding the AO this winter.

So essentially the AO has been positive more often than it has been negative however interestingly this winter has also had an above normal frequency of very negative AO values with the -AO periods having a greater amplitude than the +AO periods.

This may explain why despite probably being the mildest on record this winter will still have two ten day periods which beat anything 07 or 14 produced in terms of the CET.

[Summer Sun]

'Normal service' resumes by next weekend...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35573453

Edited February 14, 2016 by Summer Sun

[March]

On 2/13/2016 at 1:54 PM, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

all linked though really, mild means dull, mild means wet and wet means dull

But 13/14 was wet and mild....and sunny!

[Weather-history]

Not a bad day

 

 

 

[Evening thunder]

 

1 hour ago, March said:

But 13/14 was wet and mild....and sunny!

Indeed, one reason why I think this winter may be slightly worse for me (though there may not be much difference). Greyer, about as lacking in frosts, just as snowless on low ground here, and milder overall. Although this rating depends on how many frosts etc we get during the rest of February.

'Active' Atlantic weather isn't necessarily dull when you get a true mix with plenty of PM/RPM air.. Of course when you have an abundance of tropical maritime air and SW flows like this winter (which I often wouldn't call active), it is...
Winter 2012/13 was duller than 2013/14 though.

Edited February 14, 2016 by Evening thunder

[MP-R]

Although mild, the airmasses that characterised 2013/2014 brought temperatures more in the 6-10C range, Dec-Jan and some parts of Jan had temperatures between 10-15C! Everything thunder has pointed out nicely that the more rPm, Pm airmass, the more sunshine. 2013/2014 didn't have that much Tm air after mid-December.

[stodge]

Thought I would put my ideas rather than in the MOD as they move on from where the models end a wee bit.

The first wave assault against the PV in mid January resulted in 7-10 days of colder conditions in the south and the milder weather didn't return until January 22nd in lowland East London. We've had three weeks of mildish conditions with a couple of very mild days but otherwise just above average values. We're now in the second colder spell which could last until the end of the coming week.

Last year, I remember Tamara and others saying each wave assault on the PV caused an initial distortion but, akin to a boxer coming off the ropes, the PV would re-constitute but in a progressively weakened state. This current second assault will lead to the re-constitution of the PV at the end of the week and perhaps, in my estimation, 7-10 days of milder conditions.

Now, on tonight's GEFS Ensembles, there are a number of members hsposhowing the PV weakened or completely disrupted by month end and this has been hinted at for some time by GFS runs. I suspect the third and final assault on the PV will be at the turn of the month but it's where we go from there with the pattern change that is the key question.

Past strong El Nino winters have had an initial warmer spell which I would term a "false spring" in late February or early March (the NW long-range winter forecast hinted at this) before a return to more wintry conditions. It's a plausible scenario for this spring as well or we could, as some others suggest, be looking at a colder anticyclonic environment.

I think therefore spring will start full of promise but winter will hit back hard in mid and late March with a White Easter possible for some.

[Summer Sun]

-5.2c made it Northern Ireland's coldest night of winter so far