The Midlands - Weather Chat

[weather09]

Think Friday's perhaps a safer bet with low-med. risk of potentially heavy snow showers travelling inland across W Mids given reasonably strong NW/NNW mid-level flow. Lapse rates remaining steep ahead of ridge building to the west, so poky convection would seem likely.

[Gord]

34 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Well if we could achieve a little bit of sleet last night, I'm hopeful of at least some more wintriness tonight. Nothing to get too excited about but maybe a few genuine snowflakes mixed in.

The proper stuff was closer than you think last night. Almost all snow with large flakes in the very centre of Sedgley, which I believe is one of the highest points of the Black Country, but not a great deal higher than other parts.

Edited January 13, 2016 by Gord

[Costa Del Fal]

31 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Think Friday's perhaps a safer bet with low-med. risk of potentially heavy snow showers travelling inland across W Mids given reasonably strong NW/NNW mid-level flow. Lapse rates remaining steep ahead of ridge building to the west, so poky convection would seem likely.

Agree re: proper snow. Defo a wintry mix for higher areas tonight though ESP above 150m id say.

[Mair Snaw]

Going to be an interesting few days in the Midlands.... will it wont it??? i wont be convinced till i see the stuff falling from the sky...

[Adzyy]

Well I've never seen the MetO change forecasts so much in my life.

we were down for snow Thursday pm - Friday am, which has now disappeared.

and suddenly we are down for a bucket load of rain tonight. Hoping it might Spring a surprise but not holding much hope. I miss the White stuff.

[Arctic Hare]

Definitely the coldest feeling day so far, though we hit 5.7 °C earlier on (now 4.8 °C) and I would be extremely surprised if we had any wintry stuff down here. Thursday night into Friday morning looks like the first realistic chance for my neck of the woods -- shows up nicely on the 06z Euro4, for example. Who knows whether it will happen, though! In the meantime, good luck to the (literal) higher-ups for tonight.

[The Wolf]

So now we may get no snow on Thursday night/ Friday? Typical!

[Costa Del Fal]

21 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

So now we may get no snow on Thursday night/ Friday? Typical!

And you get that conclusion from where?

[snowangel32]

3 hours ago, weather09 said:

Think Friday's perhaps a safer bet with low-med. risk of potentially heavy snow showers travelling inland across W Mids given reasonably strong NW/NNW mid-level flow. Lapse rates remaining steep ahead of ridge building to the west, so poky convection would seem likely.

Yes it does seem Thursday will be wet rather than white now, Friday a better chance with light snow showers, the Peak District should get a lot of snow Thursday though. 

[Arctic Hare]

Currently 4.3 °C and tipping it down with rain. Glad I'm not out in that!

[Snowyowl9]

Snowing here yes its wet but temps have dropped since the max of 4.2c now 1.8c

Make that 1.6c

Edited January 13, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[weather09]

Looking forward to the crisp cold sunny weekend more than anything, given as snow is unlikely to be noteworthy away from high ground.  Still hopeful of snow showers Thurs eve and into Fri morn, though. 12z hi-res outputs should give a better idea of the likelihood. 

[Kieran]

Just dipped under 4c here in Birmingham. Do you think it will remain all rain overnight and into tomorrow? I was hoping we would atleast get sleet

[Midlands Ice Age]

42 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Looking forward to the crisp cold sunny weekend more than anything, given as snow is unlikely to be noteworthy away from high ground.  Still hopeful of snow showers Thurs eve and into Fri morn, though. 12z hi-res outputs should give a better idea of the likelihood. 

Weather09 - could you put your location in for us please ?

I think it could well be useful for a bit later on!

My temp has dropped from 4.3 to 3.1C with the first shower and according to Snowy Owl its still falling further west, so all is not lost.

We may scrape a covering by morning.

[BlueHedgehog074]

19 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Just dipped under 4c here in Birmingham. Do you think it will remain all rain overnight and into tomorrow? I was hoping we would atleast get sleet

Perhaps wouldn't rule out the possibility of some back edge sleet/wet snow to the precipitation tomorrow morning as slightly colder air tries to tuck in behind the rain and showery precipitation. Otherwise a chance for a wintry mix of showers of rain, sleet, hail and snow to follow later on tomorrow and into Friday as Weather09 talked about. A showery, chilly, North-Westerly to Northerly flow to take over. The Dewpoints look look to be generally below freezing throughout much of Thursday (late morning onwards) and Friday according to the 12Z GFS accompanied by  850 hPa temperatures around -4*C to -7*C which should be supportive for showers to be wintry - even at lower levels. 

Edited January 13, 2016 by DiagonalRedLine

[Matty23]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Snowing here yes its wet but temps have dropped since the max of 4.2c now 1.8c

Make that 1.6c

Were bout u in Powys how high r u. Im from crew green about 10 mins from Welshpool.

[snowangel32]

29 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Just dipped under 4c here in Birmingham. Do you think it will remain all rain overnight and into tomorrow? I was hoping we would atleast get sleet

Need to dip a fair bit more looks like a washout tonight and tomorrow, chance of light snow Friday, check our fergie interesting tweet though so all is not lost if the SW might get snow surely we have a chance.

[syed2878]

nothing but cold rain here. hope we do get snow.

[Mair Snaw]

Sleet here at present... sure i can see a flake or two in with it... maybe my eyes playing tricks on me...

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi again..

Just watched Shevali....

She is talking about possible sleet this evening,   AND

by morning was showing more widespread snowfall for Coventry Northwestwards on all high ground (but not exclusively she said) and showed her snowfall symbol for some non high ground as well as all high ground.        

She then was talking about another band coming down through the Cheshire Gap on friday night which would be  all  snowfall event.

This is an upgrade from the BBC based upon MO raw data. It must be a recent file as it has def upgraded since the one at 16:00

Keep the faith.

 

MIA

[Barbmac]

Raining here, 3.9^oC, dewpoint is 1.1^oC. Not even the faintest sign of sleetiness. 

[weather09]

12z EURO4 modeling a scattering of wintry showers pushing inland Fri, with trough on synop outputs:

   

Depending on shower intensity and longevity, some places might see temporary covering.  Though accumulating snow from either Thurs/Fri would seem unlikely. 

Edited January 13, 2016 by weather09

[Costa Del Fal]

Seemed to be a little little sleetiness in the heavier bursts whilst driving around merry hill earlier - noticed by the splodges on the windscreen. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

luckily models/bbc do underestimate Cheshire Gap activity, but I am only thinking smattering at best, similar to late last Jan, and 20th Nov 

[Arctic Hare]

Let's get the cold air established first, then we can start worrying about snow. If it's cold enough, there's always the chance of an unexpected snowfall. If it's not cold enough, all the ppn in the world won't turn things white. There were a couple of times in 2010 when the forecast was completely dry, but one shower managed to make it through from Wales and give us a cm or so. When you live here, you don't turn your nose up at things like that!