The Midlands - Weather Chat

[cyclonic happiness]

OK, so 2 hours ago it was rain for here tomorrow night, now it's snow again and the bbc says "there could be a few centimetres"  I think I speak for all of us when I say................

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

[Adzyy]

Well it's gone from snow, to clear, to snow, to just a few hours Sunday morning according to the MO. I literally can't take it seriously anymore.

[Mair Snaw]

9 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

OK, so 2 hours ago it was rain for here tomorrow night, now it's snow again and the bbc says "there could be a few centimetres"  I think I speak for all of us when I say................

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

So by tomorrow it will be bone dry and the cold will be staying for another few days....

[cyclonic happiness]

1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

So by tomorrow it will be bone dry and the cold will be staying for another few days....

I have not a clue!! It's almost liberating.

When I was a lad in the 80s, I used to walk to the library every day and read the weather in the local paper, this feels the same lol

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, Adzyy said:

Well it's gone from snow, to clear, to snow, to just a few hours Sunday morning according to the MO. I literally can't take it seriously anymore.

Think im just going to go to bed and see what we have in the morning.... thats as good as predicting what the Meto are going with... if it tips it down with snow then so be it if it dont then we wait till the next chance....all this chopping and changing is to much for my Aspergers to take it makes me wanna scream...

[Costa Del Fal]

I am just going to use this from now on until normality resumes...

[Costa Del Fal]

Latest EURO 4 and Arpege/Arome look to be a shift east somewhat. Still my east of Stoke/Birmingham line still holds for snow imo. However plenty of models keeping it further west too. Perhaps best to expect a blend of the two maybe!!!

Basically, I give up and have not a clue anymore....lol!

[shaky]

Any pics from.the euro4 or arpege that you can post costa del fal?

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Latest EURO 4 and Arpege/Arome look to be a shift east somewhat. Still my east of Stoke/Birmingham line still holds for snow imo. However plenty of models keeping it further west too. Perhaps best to expect a blend of the two maybe!!!

Basically, I give up and have not a clue anymore....lol!

It's giving me a headache. I'm at the point where if it snows it snows and if it doesn't then sod it!

[fizz511]

[Costa Del Fal]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's giving me a headache. I'm at the point where if it snows it snows and if it doesn't then sod it!

Haha indeed. I am actually past the point of caring much right now. Just a pure pain in the backside. No doubt to add to it all, the radar will trick us all tomorrow night as well, ppn falling where it doesn't show and vice versa... lol.

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, fizz511 said:

Which model is this?

[fizz511]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Which model is this?

Well, I'm no expert on models, so I just googled Arpege and this came up - it has its title in the top of the picture, don't know if it's the new 'hi res' one everyone's talking about....?

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Haha indeed. I am actually past the point of caring much right now. Just a pure pain in the backside. No doubt to add to it all, the radar will trick us all tomorrow night as well, ppn falling where it doesn't show and vice versa... lol.

This week's modelling has been a complete mind fxxk. I'm tired of it all. We can't even get agreement at 24 hours out. How can something deviate as much as 50-100 miles in 24 hours from the initialisation data?

[Costa Del Fal]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This week's modelling has been a complete mind fxxk. I'm tired of it all. We can't even get agreement at 24 hours out. How can something deviate as much as 50-100 miles in 24 hours from the initialisation data?

Yep. And I bet the 00z's will offer not a lot more consensus if any. Right nowcasting event this one. I think one of the few things I feel I can say with some confidence is that most in NW England and a majority of the West/Central Midlands will see some form of ppn but how much I have no idea and where the rain/snow boundary lies, you may as well ask my dog. It's a dog's dinner that's for sure with a heap of cat food mixed in for added confusion. Lol.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Yep. And I bet the 00z's will offer not a lot more consensus if any. Right nowcasting event this one. I think one of the few things I feel I can near confidently say is that most in NW England and a majority of the West/Central Midlands will see some form of ppn but how much I have no idea and where the rain/snow boundary lies, you may as well ask my dog. It's a dog's dinner that's for sure with a heap of cat food mixed in for added confusion. Lol.

I'm staying up for the 0z runs but I bet by 5.30 I'll wish I hadn't! 

[Costa Del Fal]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm staying up for the 0z runs but I bet by 5.30 I'll wish I hadn't! 

Brave. I for one cannot be ars*d. But that might partially be down tp the fact I have been up since 4.30am for work anyway!

I have a rare whole weekend off. Will probably sleep through all of it anyway now with all this fatigue... haha.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Costa Del Fal]

Just in case anyone needed another dose of model confusion for tomorrow night, Netweather's own Hi-res model takes the ppn down into Wales only tomorrow evening from the Irish Sea and even here it is light so pretty much another option on the table. This table is so full of options now, there is no room to sit around it and enjoy it properly. Like a christmas dinner, I am now tired and exhausted from all of the different foods and have been overloaded!

[Nick L]

Be grateful you haven't got to write forecasts based on the models at the moment...can I borrow that stone please Costa?

[Arctic Hare]

Thanks @Costa Del Fal for a really interesting read on the last page. As ever, my biggest problem is likely to be (lack of) altitude: as seen already during this spell, and so many times before, 90m asl and 220m asl are very different beasts in the marginal situations we get so often round here. It's a bit of a "double or nothing" thing for me: do I gamble and hope for snow even though it may well be rain, or settle for clear and cold? Not that I get any choice! But you know what I mean.

[Costa Del Fal]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Be grateful you haven't got to write forecasts based on the models at the moment...can I borrow that stone please Costa?

I feel sorry for you at the moment. I already feel what I wrote on the last page is completely out of date and irrelevant now. Haha.

Here is that stone btw *passes it on**. Take good care of it though. It's the only tool (and stone!) available in the emergency forecasting kit. Lose it and we really are knackered.

[fizz511]

Well the MetO is still giving me snow for most of Sunday, so I'm off to bed before it changes its mind I think....

[Fozfoster]

Chances of snow in Warwick as per normal.............nil, cold rain. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Harsh frost here. -1.6c at 6am

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Great, informative post Costa. 

 

FWIW - I think any PPN will stay west of the Midlands until midweek, including tomorrow night's affair. I expect that to slip through Wales, into the SW and then the front to stay out west until later in the week than Monday. Tonight's 18z backs this up a little, but the general consensus of the models readjusting west the closer they get to an event with these kind of synoptics (undercut/slider - pressure to the east and the atlantic trying to push in). 

A shame really and I hope they do correct eastwards again as I really, would rather we hit reset and had a couple of decent snowfalls in the next 3-4 days.

bbc and GFS have it too far East, too warm for snow for our areas, monday also too mild, Tuesday showing as snow

this system is early, on raintoday can see miles too far east, soggy night for us, bbc has rain starting at 4pm

Edited January 16, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252