The Midlands - Weather Chat

[Midlands Ice Age]

Guys

ECM (the best performing of the main models) has now shown a slight undercutter for monday. It has now joined 3 of the high resolution models. If  this undercutter upgrades we will all be in heaven next week.

Already one or two models are toying with an easterly in perturbations. This trend could increase over the weekend.

I have been watching the models quietly waiting to see which model would spot it first.

The UK has toyed all week with the slider, but in its last run it backed away  (shame as  otherwise I would have given the UKMO 10 out of 10).

This situation is similar to about half a dozen situations that occured during 1960 - 80 period when the UKMO ruled our weather forecasting. Several times they had forecast  that the mild would rush through. Only at the last minute would an urgent revision made to say that the sleet would not turn back to rain (as forecast), but it would turn to snow for the next 12 - 24 hours. I can even recall instances where it had started as snow (and had been snowing for 4 hours), when they latched on that the mild air was not going to win.

So - if it is called correctly now (still an if), then to call it 60 hours in advance represents the advancement made by the use of computerised models and instant access to satellite data. To me it will be very interesting to see the order that the models will pick up on the trend. (if it a correct trend!)

Note - although any easterly has not yet been picked up apart from a few perturbations. It is very close to happening and only needs a slight increase in the southern jet moving in to France/ Portugal to make it happen. Already there are signs that pressure will start to rise again next week over any low that moves east /southeast.

Keep the faith guys - with the now massive cold pool waiting to the east, we could then be locked in to a major cold spell.

Also  to balance things out a bit - I have never seen any snow brought to this area by a decaying system dropping down from the North west (west yes). In fact that system could supper our chances of my above mentioned predictions as it could stop the high building to the north strongly as it need to do to stop the next Atlantic low. Infact, It needs to go away (or words to that effect).

So I hope that those expecting snow tomorrow night will be disappointed!!!!.

The long term gains will be  superb.

MIA

 

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Midlands Ice Age

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Summer of 95 said:

Feb/Mar 2005 was indeed better for lying snow (1cm on the 24th, 1cm 2nd Mar, 2cm 3rd) but in terms of disappointment it was quite comparable. It didn't look marginal at all, like this one.

This winter, at half-time, is worse than 2013/14. Fewer air frosts, less sunshine, same lack of lying snow. And this month in on course to be wetter than Jan 2014.

wetter than Jan '14 likely yes, I said in CET thread, one of wettest January's on record, but in 13-14 at this stage no snow, this year 2 smatterings, last night and 20th Nov

[Snowsie]

Not one but two double flakers for early Sunday morning! Banking those before they get taken away from me again!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Snowsie said:

Not one but two double flakers for early Sunday morning! Banking those before they get taken away from me again!

same 'ere, but rain monday

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes same here but with snow/sleet for Monday too.

Going to try and compile a post about the next few days with my thoughts shortly as I have a rare piece called spare time!!! lol!

[Arctic Hare]

Maybe something like 9-10 Feb 2007 will turn up. I remember that one: looking up my notes, it was supposed to turn to rain by afternoon on the first day (Friday), but actually carried on snowing until the Saturday afternoon. A pretty poor winter as I recall, but that event did go some way towards making up for it.

Edit: misread the date: it was 8-9 feb, as I remember Atlantic 252 points out below.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Arctic Hare

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

Maybe something like 9-10 Feb 2007 will turn up. I remember that one: looking up my notes, it was supposed to turn to rain by afternoon on the first day (Friday), but actually carried on snowing until the Saturday afternoon. A pretty poor winter as I recall, but that event did go some way towards making up for it.

That was a brilliant event. Lives fondly in my memory-even if I did get stranded in down town Tunstall on the number 20 bus! Absolute madness, bumps galore, cars sliding down side roads and some of the heaviest snow I've seen in my life.

Edited January 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

Maybe something like 9-10 Feb 2007 will turn up. I remember that one: looking up my notes, it was supposed to turn to rain by afternoon on the first day (Friday), but actually carried on snowing until the Saturday afternoon. A pretty poor winter as I recall, but that event did go some way towards making up for it.

sure it wasn't Thursday 8th? front moved in from the west, then another front on Friday 9th, much heavier, great event it was! but on Saturday 10th the Atlantic broke through and we were mild

[Arctic Hare]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

sure it wasn't Thursday 8th? front moved in from the west, then another front on Friday 9th, much heavier, great event it was! but on Saturday 10th the Atlantic broke through and we were mild

Yes, you're right: it was 8th-9th Feb. I had the Friday off anyway, so I probably mis-remembered it as being a Saturday. I walked down to the Wyre Forest on the second day, and I've rarely seen heavier snow round here. This photo was taken in early afternoon, though you wouldn't know it from the light!

[Costa Del Fal]

9 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

Maybe something like 9-10 Feb 2007 will turn up. I remember that one: looking up my notes, it was supposed to turn to rain by afternoon on the first day (Friday), but actually carried on snowing until the Saturday afternoon. A pretty poor winter as I recall, but that event did go some way towards making up for it.

Ahh this was the one I mentioned earlier but labelled as Feb 2008 instead. Crazy to think this was nearly 10 years ago. Remember it well though for the persistence of the snow and decent depths.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks good, and it was

[Supacell]

I drove up to the Peak District this afternoon - between Leek and Buxton around the village of Flash. There is a bit of snow, I would estimate about an inch but it isn't a solid blanket due to the rugged ground and plants up there. I did get to see some snow falling though as those showers passed through, which is the first snow I have seen from this cold spell. Minor roads were quite icy and I had to be careful on the steep inclines/declines.

 I do like these cold spells whereby something can appear last minute or a snow to rain event could stay as snow. Okay, it may come to nothing but it is still exciting to watch the forecasts unfold and change on an almost hourly basis! 

 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

same 'ere, but rain monday

Lol! so you're 20 miles west of me and have 0'c and heavy snow. I have sleet and 2'c 20 miles east from you in the colder air? WTF? lol.     The bbc really is shyte isn't it?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

53 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

So I hope that those expecting snow tomorrow night will be disappointed!!!!.

The long term gains will be  superb.

MIA

 

 

What a gamble, get no snow tomorrow night but get a proper cold spell later or get snow tomorrow night and then have mild mush till Spring. I don't know which to choose . In all seriousness though as long as it was guaranteed I'd choose the first option. If it snows tomorrow night now you've certainly put a dampener on it, lol.

[BristolBaggie]

Ian F just posted this on the SW thread. Looking good for the Midlands. Wish I was back in the Midlands for Monday!

Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!

Edited January 15, 2016 by BristolBaggie

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

What a gamble, get no snow tomorrow night but get a proper cold spell later or get snow tomorrow night and then have mild mush till Spring. I don't know which to choose . In all seriousness though as long as it was guaranteed I'd choose the first option. If it snows tomorrow night now you've certainly put a dampener on it, lol.

I agree, -  I thought long and hard about adding the second part of the post!!!

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 minutes ago, BristolBaggie said:

Ian F just posted this on the SW thread. Looking good for the Midlands. Wish I was back in the Midlands for Monday!

Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!

MO are still very uncertain. All options (including mine)  are very much on the table!.

I think Fergie has chosen an interesting weekend to have off!

MIA

[cyclonic happiness]

15 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

MO are still very uncertain. All options (including mine)  are very much on the table!.

I think Fergie has chosen an interesting weekend to have off!

MIA

i'll eat my hate if we get 'substantial snow' :-D

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 18Z, further west? we need it further west

Ay, I would say upgrade! starts to move back SW wards

Edited January 15, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Costa Del Fal]

Ok, so going to attempt at a synopsis of the models for the coming couple of days and my punt on what is likely to happen. So, following a widespread frost tonight with ice risk, Saturday daylight hours at the least promises pretty much wall to wall sunshine albeit pretty cold with maxes 1-4c for most. Then FI seems to begin there!!! I have to say this has been one of the most volatile periods of watching model output I can remember. Fascinating to watch and the uncertainty keeps up the tension and excitement I suppose despite forecasting becoming an absolute nightmare, trying to untangle what is a mess of spaghetti to be honest.

As it stands for the Midlands as of Friday evening, 2 potential snow events are at hand over the forthcoming few days, one tomorrow night/Sunday as part of a warm front being forced SE/SSE around the high pressure sitting above the UK currently/drifting slightly to our East by Sunday. The second is courtesy of fronts arriving from the Atlantic, then potentially disrupting and being forced to slide SE once more thanks to the cold high in situ to our east. In this post I shall focus on the potential around Sunday for now.

Currently and still with much uncertainty, the situation of whether precipitation reaches us in my opinion, seems to depend on how stubborn the high is to our east and therefore in forcing the front before us and how steadfast the high is at slowing the atlantic fronts down and thus how easily the front can travel more east than south. My analysis has primarily consisted of using the range of models available from meteociel (http://www.meteociel.fr/). Before progressing its important that behidnthe warm front, plain rain is likely though ahead if it, sleet and snow most probable. Its where this front and associated boundary should it's ppn reach the Midlands be of key question here. Anyway, thought I would start with one of the less positive models (for snow) which is the NMM. Both the 2 and 5km resolution models do not really show any ppn reaching the Midlands. A small light area reaches Wales but nothing to shout about. The issue is the front seems to 'bounce' back North again as it reaches NW England/N Wales and doesn't keep sinking south. This remains a viable option as the NMM has stuck with this for the last few runs. An example chart is shown below which demonstrates the closest the ppn reaches us.

 

All looking rather light and a bit sorry for itself really. Nevertheless it is fair to say I have noticed the NMM showing the ppn sinking that bit south over time compared to previous runs but needs a fair bit more to deliver anything noteworthy to us. The HIRLAM model is not inspiring either and is in fact worse than the NMM, weakening the front around the NW of the UK rather quickly although seems to have widespread 'snow flurries' at best. I have however found precipitation modelling with the HIRLAM a bit haphazard and does not seem to to have the highest resolution available so could be struggling with this. If I remember the 06z output was better for the Midlands though.

 

The ICON/DWD Model is a bit similar although some light snowfall does seem to make it to the West Midlands...just. 

The NAVGEM is another no but is completely different to the above too with only some ppn grazing NW Scotland really so I really do not believe this model has the answer.

However, the good news is that a good portion of models also agree on ppn of some kind reaching the Midlands, particularly western and central parts at this present time. However, here is where the western extent of any snow plays a critical role. But firstly, an overview of some of the different models below showing ppn over the Midlands. 

Finally the Euro4 is very keen on PPN reaching the Midlands but a clear rain/snow line prevalent.

 

18z GFS rolling out as I post seems to adjust the PPN slightly more SW, so maybe a bit more favourable than previous in terms of keeping the rain side away.

Thought I would add a couple of FAX charts to finish for some expert opinion from Exeter. Clearly, the latest charts show that front trying to edge into the Midlands. Their corresponding symbol forecasts has snow but with as more eastern focus so bringing more of the East Mids into play though latest model data favours a more westerly push, Nevertheless, they seem quite sure ppn will reach the midlands. That front again, the key dividing line between rain/snow. It still seems to be around Monday midnight though too so suggestive of a prolonged (ish) period of light/moderate ppn. 

 

Clearly though, overall a fairly large difference remains in first, whether ppn will reach the Midlands and secondly, where the rain/snow line lies. Currently, I would rate about 65% chance of precipitation reaching our region so still a number of possibilities where it could go wrong. Should it reach the region, the west and central Midlands clearly most favoured it seems but again not without certainty. The rain/snowline is harder to call and is entirely dependent on if the front reaches down here and to some extent, ppn intensity. Some models offer a weak affair, others something more notable. No model seems to indicate anything too heavy mind. Nonetheless, on assessment of the output I would say East of about Stoke, south east towards Birmingham is a firm bet for where any ppn, should it fall, be of sleet or snow. West of here, more uncertain but the potential for bigger accumulations and hence the classic saying 'higher risk, higher reward'.

I see the GFS 18z as I write this has gone for a Wales/West Midlands event in this part of the world, west of Birmingham so to speak mainly. Just one of many options! Clearly the rain/snowline becomes more insignificant to us then as the warm front is further west so higher chance of just snow. 

Depths wise should snow fall, nothing too significant but I reckon 0.5-3cm possible on lower ground to about 200m, possibly 3-6cm above this above this mark. 

Favoured spots at present would be Powys for our Welsh readers (albeit higher risk of rain as closer to the warm front boundary) and Shropshire. The Black Country, Malverns and Black Mountains/Brecons I think could also get something from this. To be honest many could see something in the west midlands region as a whole but height always an advantage thus the comments above. Somewhere between Bala/Betws-y-Coed and Stoke down to about Worcester and across to about Abergavenny would be my favoured zone in our region at least at present.

 

Bound to all change by the morning rendering this post useless anyway! Hehe! Hope this has been a little bit useful.

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z pants, snow's off

[fizz511]

45 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

i'll eat my hate if we get 'substantial snow' :-D

Was that a Freudian slip CH? 

[Nick L]

I don't like to criticise the Met Office, but their public facing website is appalling at times. The text for the West Midlands says a dry weekend, yet the automated forecast for Cannock says heavy snow for much of the night. 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Nick L

[cyclonic happiness]

21 minutes ago, fizz511 said:

Was that a Freudian slip CH? 

after seeing the 18z, i'll stick with it 

[PolarWarsaw]

Great, informative post Costa. 

 

FWIW - I think any PPN will stay west of the Midlands until midweek, including tomorrow night's affair. I expect that to slip through Wales, into the SW and then the front to stay out west until later in the week than Monday. Tonight's 18z backs this up a little, but the general consensus of the models readjusting west the closer they get to an event with these kind of synoptics (undercut/slider - pressure to the east and the atlantic trying to push in). 

A shame really and I hope they do correct eastwards again as I really, would rather we hit reset and had a couple of decent snowfalls in the next 3-4 days.