Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Methuselah]

It could well have a Germanic root? But anyhoo, back to the topic - the fist time I encountered the term 'Baltic' was in Inverness. And, even then, I mistook it for a curry!

[peborant]

I guess it would have been a Germanic word, overheard by some Roman traveller, which made it back to the capital and became the term to define that area and peoples...? 

School 3.4 / Sensor upping its game now, 1.1 

[SW Saltire]

For the record i use 'baltic' all the time. People used to absolutely ball it at school during the winter.

Was all over facebook in 2010. 

Would be interesting to see how prevalent it is in different regions. My best friends dad uses it a lot and he's from Elgin originally (although he uses it to describe conditions on the oil rig in Norway, not here). 

Certainly, a common saying down here anyway....

N.B. The useless GFS looks more positive for cold inside t-96 but crap after 120 as per. Chocolate teapot springs to mind...

Edited January 15, 2016 by SW Saltire

[peborant]

Wooo, almost 2C in little over 30 minutes over grass, school is still reading 3º, sensor is down to 0.1 this is turning more interesting than I bargained for. 

[Hairy Celt]

My Dad used to say 'penetratingly frigid' only after checking my Mum wasn't in earshot...

and when were a lad, the 'freeze the balls off a brass monkey' was used, and that I don't hear any more.

[peborant]

In Spain we say 'hace un frío de cojones', 'cojones' being a rather offensive word for 'balls' haha. 

Sensor reading minus temps, which was expected. -0.4. School getting there at 2.8C It just feels like a little heat island going on in that building, thankfully I am away in a rural area lol (I really am under half a mile from it)

[peborant]

Sorry to be a nuisance posting so much but there's excitement to be had with a little experiment every once in a while. 

Sensor is still plumetting, currently reading -1.1

School is also falling quite quickly for a lousy rooftop, cold air is building up nicely. 2.2C

[Bullseye]

Did the 12z runs show anything in regard to tomorrows snow? 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

2 hours ago, peborant said:

And as for the 'Scottish weather' matter, well at least I can vouch we don't say that in Spanish or Catalan!

Maybe in the future you'll move back and introduce it locally.

A few decades down the line and it becomes established. 

I've started in in Northern France with the in-laws.

EDIT Much to my disappointment and the irritation of French Mrs SS, apparently they definitely do not say it's 'Les Miserables' outside when it's grey and pishin down in France. 

Edited January 15, 2016 by scottish skier

[Hairy Celt]

2 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Did the 12z runs show anything in regard to tomorrows snow? 

GFS (spits) shows west coast snow mid afternoon onwards.  Waitng for the NMM4 to update but Glasgow may be ok - best ask one of the competent people though.

[101_North]

Latest BBC graphic (sound was off as in work) was pretty poor for anything East of Glasgow tomorrow. Western areas looked pretty good.

[LomondSnowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

GFS (spits) shows west coast snow mid afternoon onwards.  Waitng for the NMM4 to update but Glasgow may be ok - best ask one of the competent people though.

No one's really competent in this game, certainly not when it comes to forecasting snow 

GFS is pretty half baked- this is the eastern extent of tomorrow night's band:

and the EURO4 does something similar:

Now in some respects this, along with the NW-SE tilt of the band, is positive if you like cold, as it means the next low is getting disrupted, and even by Tuesday it's struggling to bring anything meaningful in the way of precipitation across the country, with the low stalling out west:

 

However, while the surface cold is still broadly in place, with maxima still pretty close to 0C, the uppers are already at a level where even a slight bit of mixing and the precipitation will turn to rain (potentially of the freezing variety):

Now it has been edging towards the 'UKMO' setup, where we probably do enough to keep things largely on the wintry side other than possibly on Wednesday and, longer term, end up on the cold side of the jet:

but whether we can get to that tipping point is the interesting question. In summary, probably some snow for the west, I suspect quite a weak affair though, certainly east of Harthill, but with the potential for more frontal attempts (also potentially quite weak in intensity) into next week, with the mild air constantly trying to inch its way east, but with the cold likely fighting it to at least a draw until Tuesday, which is too far out in model terms for us to have much confidence is what's going to happen. 

[Big Innes Madori]

2 hours ago, peborant said:

In Spain we say 'hace un frío de cojones', 'cojones' being a rather offensive word for 'balls' haha. 

Sensor reading minus temps, which was expected. -0.4. School getting there at 2.8C It just feels like a little heat island going on in that building, thankfully I am away in a rural area lol (I really am under half a mile from it)

Here in Fife we Say "shahoorsir it's fekin cauld oot there eh"

Big Innes

[Bullseye]

BBC weather and yr.no showing central belt to get good few hours of snow tomorrow, yr.no has got Glasgow down to -7c tonight! First time this week I have seen yr.no forecast snow for central belt. I have jinxed it, haven't I ha?

[snawbaw]

24 minutes ago, Big Innes Madori said:

Here in Fife we Say "shahoorsir it's fekin cauld oot there eh"

Big Innes

Aye or it's brass oot there!

[edo]

Given up on models there are too many variables..kinda like that though much as I love netweather etc it's kinda nice not really knowing what the weather is gonna do....gut feeling is gonna get some more decent snow before end of this spell and at least one more good cold spell before the end of winter....no basis for that whatsoever

[M1245]

How does Monday looks in terms of snow north of the border? 

I see BBC have advised of potentially disruptive snow but have also highlighted details are very uncertain.

Anyone have any thoughts?

[Guest]

The GFS ECM 500mb mean charts seem to be edging more towards HP over Scandinavia than Europe by days 8 to 10, but they can just as easily edge back the way by tomorrow. Or be wrong. 

[Big Innes Madori]

23 minutes ago, M1245 said:

How does Monday looks in terms of snow north of the border? 

I see BBC have advised of potentially disruptive snow but have also highlighted details are very uncertain.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Fife is quite a big area fae the West tae the East o' the County M1245

If you are oot oan the coast beside Hawsey then you probably have a lower chance wi this wan?

If ye can fim up a wee bit wrt your location then young LS might be able tae enlighten ye!

Big Innes

[M1245]

4 minutes ago, Big Innes Madori said:

Fife is quite a big area fae the West tae the East o' the County M1245

If you are oot oan the coast beside Hawsey then you probably have a lower chance wi this wan?

If ye can fim up a wee bit wrt your location then young LS might be able tae enlighten ye!

Big Innes

Haha no kidding.

 

Glenrothes area for me...

[peborant]

The wester you are the better that's my take on things. 

 

Crazy swings in temperature, now 0.1 / 1.6 thanks to a nagging breeze which feels BALTIC (or as baltic as it gets in my life) haha

[blitzen]

1 hour ago, Big Innes Madori said:

Here in Fife we Say "shahoorsir it's fekin cauld oot there eh"

Big Innes

Aye, and not forgetting the ladies (?)    "It's that cauld, ma nipples ir like dockyaird rivets!"  

[Northern Strath]

Nippley oot *sorry nippy oot

-5c and dropping

[Big Innes Madori]

25 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Aye, and not forgetting the ladies (?)    "It's that cauld, ma nipples ir like dockyaird rivets!"  

Aye Blitzy! and the added benefit fae the Ladies condition is that twa Fife men huv somewhere tae hang their jaikits!!

Big Innes

Edited January 15, 2016 by Big Innes Madori

[Stormeh]

The 18z GFS shows the band of precipitation further south and missing most of Scotland. 

Will see what the euro4 thinks soon.