Ireland Regional Weather Chat - 20/11/2015 Onward.

[Su Campu]

The negative thing about a cold spell is the amount of garbage one has to trawl through to find any meaningful posts in the likes of the model thread. You just can't go in there at the moment.

For me, there are two key indicators of a) how cold the spell will be, and b) how long it will be.

The low that is to form over the eastern US will be a key determining factor in how the Greenland high forms. That is still open to some uncertainty, but we want plenty of heights pumped north, not only for the short term but also to up the chances of a SSW. 

A second one is the low that forms in the Atlantic later next week. That could give a battle ground snow fest,  but it could also put a stop to things by running more north than progged now, feeding warmer air north. If it hangs south and passes east then bingo, but it's one to keep an eye on.

A third thing I am watching is the setup for polar lows. I feel confident we will see a couple forming north of Scotland next week, but the aforementioned factors will determine where they go from there.

Beats the mild muck of the past month anyway.

[Aliaalu]

It's 0.5c in East Belfast.  (I'm about 0.5mile from City airport although more elevated).  Dropped a friend home and whilst chatting in car windscreen froze over.... fab!  It's been ages since iced cars have been spotted in this part of the city.  Happy already!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

6 hours ago, Su Campu said:

The negative thing about a cold spell is the amount of garbage one has to trawl through to find any meaningful posts in the likes of the model thread. You just can't go in there at the moment.

For me, there are two key indicators of a) how cold the spell will be, and b) how long it will be.

The low that is to form over the eastern US will be a key determining factor in how the Greenland high forms. That is still open to some uncertainty, but we want plenty of heights pumped north, not only for the short term but also to up the chances of a SSW. 

A second one is the low that forms in the Atlantic later next week. That could give a battle ground snow fest,  but it could also put a stop to things by running more north than progged now, feeding warmer air north. If it hangs south and passes east then bingo, but it's one to keep an eye on.

A third thing I am watching is the setup for polar lows. I feel confident we will see a couple forming north of Scotland next week, but the aforementioned factors will determine where they go from there.

Beats the mild muck of the past month anyway.

Great summary there Su, thanks 

[Sperrin]

Looks like the walls are crumbling down. Very poor 00z from GFS now being backed by ECM. Get the truckloads of anti-depressants ready for Model thread today. 

 

 

[Neiller22]

Thank god I didn't let myself believe the models. Its always the way. Think next week is shaping up to a non event and I for one aint surprised.  And don't expect the models to start up-grading. They wont! 

[Neiller22]

8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Neiller,  it's the GFS 18z. The worst run of the day of the worst ops run of the big three.

It just ain't going to be right.

U were saying MS! lets hope this morning GFS aint right either along with the ECM! Just typical off this island trying to get proper cold and snow.

[mountain shadow]

Ukmet still rock solid. GFS ensembles all over the place. 

Remember we are favoured in the NW as we will always remain closer to the colder air.

[Neiller22]

O I know that MS. Just hoping for once we get a bit of luck.

[Rocheydub]

Ah F F S! I didn't see that coming.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Rocheydub

[mountain shadow]

I'm just hoping the ECM op is a mild outlier in its ensembles. 

The ECM op has been behind the curve since the Greenie high came on the horizon. 

[Weegaz]

Some extremely disheartened people on the MOD thread this morning. 

Still think we can expect some icy conditions and snow next week although looking through the GFS charts for UK precipitation type it does look very hit and miss.

The sub tropical low formed in Bermuda seems to be a bit of a talking point for some, I assume it will be laden with moisture that will eventually hit the cold air and produce a dumping of snow for some. 

[ronan]

Keep the faith folks! I think the models are just struggling. We all know how the models have chopped and changed lately I i'm gonna bin this this mornings runs.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I am still confident, past 144hrs is still uncertain, we were advised this by the more knowledgeable that there would be downgrades and upgrades.  In some ways this may work out better for us high risk high reward etc. Glad I didn't order that toboggan though.....

[ronan]

Back to current weather. The met yellow warning for snow didn't really materialise! The front moving up from the south has been very slow moving. By the time it reaches us temp will have risen so probably mostly rain falling. 

[booferking]

There crazy in the Model Tread i told you this and i told you so not one has a clue its always the same names taking S....t, and only a very few level headed experienced  posters that id listen to and guess what there not on at the minute, so i would advise stay clear of that thread until this evening runs then we should know more.

[Weegaz]

24 minutes ago, ronan said:

Back to current weather. The met yellow warning for snow didn't really materialise! The front moving up from the south has been very slow moving. By the time it reaches us temp will have risen so probably mostly rain falling. 

Currently falling as rain here ronan

[BornFromTheVoid]

The proper cold spell isn't due to begin for another 4 or 5 days, which in many cases can be considered FI. The fact that we've got a half decent Greenie High setting up and a return to a -ve AO are both good signs that a decent cold spell is in the offing, but not guaranteed. 

In these volatile set ups, anything beyond 5 days, maybe even 4, is subject to a lot of change from one run to the next. Lets get the northerly air stream in place and see what happens from there.

[booferking]

10 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The proper cold spell isn't due to begin for another 4 or 5 days, which in many cases can be considered FI. The fact that we've got a half decent Greenie High setting up and a return to a -ve AO are both good signs that a decent cold spell is in the offing, but not guaranteed. 

In these volatile set ups, anything beyond 5 days, maybe even 4, is subject to a lot of change from one run to the next. Lets get the northerly air stream in place and see what happens from there.

I agree with all the above.

[Rocheydub]

Agree fully BFTV, just as I said there would be downgrades, I wasn't expecting such a big shift though! 

I await tonight's 12z runs and make a call then.

[geoffw]

what are the ecm ensembles saying? mild outlier?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Expect upgrades 

[geoffw]

what do the ensembles show ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 minutes ago, geoffw said:

what do the ensembles show ?

The De Bilt ecm ensembles are mixed, but the 00z GFS operational is mostly on the mild side of the ensembles for next week.

[Neiller22]

14 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

Expect upgrades 

Why? your crystal ball seeing something we don't! hope your right but cant see it

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

25 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Why? your crystal ball seeing something we don't! hope your right but cant see it

Same crystal ball that sees downgrades,  look this was always going to swing back and forth,  I still think Gfs hasn't handled this right yet, that said I know jack s h it