Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

The ecm and NOAA are singing from the same sheet as the GEFS this evening, all with a very similar upper air pattern which I won't bother to repeat. The upshot of all this is that there is no sign of any significant change to the westerly regime and periods of very unsettled weather in the next fourteen days.

[78/79]

This winter is like a bl...dy stuck record, starting to get right on my nerves

[Bradowl]

I was starting to get excited after reading posts in model thread this evening but having just watched BBC News long-range forecast its back to square one. Brief cold spell early next week then jet stream moves back north putting us back in mild sector. 

Did say there's some uncertainty so still a little hope. 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

I was starting to get excited after reading posts in model thread this evening but having just watched BBC News long-range forecast its back to square one. Brief cold spell early next week then jet stream moves back north putting us back in mild sector. 

Did say there's some uncertainty so still a little hope. 

You should have watched "Winter Watch"

Greater chance of colder spells as we move through Feb.

Edited January 29, 2016 by winterof79

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm and NOAA are singing from the same sheet as the GEFS this evening, all with a very similar upper air pattern which I won't bother to repeat. The upshot of all this is that there is no sign of any significant change to the westerly regime and periods of very unsettled weather in the next fourteen days.

Funny how people interpret things differently! John's post in the MOD.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[NL]

Multi million £/$ computers, complex algorithms and all that technical know how, I'm still going with a rare visitor to my garden.. a grey wagtail..!! He's been popping in for the last few days. Last time he called was in 2010 and we all know what happened then..!!

[knocker]

8 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Funny how people interpret things differently! John's post in the MOD.

 

 

Actually it's not that different as I assume John if referring to the fact that the colder sourced air moves further south but it still leaves the temps (in general) around average. The point I was making was that the unsettled regime currently in place will continue for the next fourteen days on the evidence of all the anomalies.  I wasn't that concerned about the temps as given the current weather they aren't really the main priority. And I was taking it as read that there will be periods of quite wintry weather injected in this just as we are currently experiencing.

I take it from the wording of your cryptic post you were attempting to make a feeble point?

EDIT

Actually, after consideration, if the question of people's different interpretation of charts/model outputs, or perceived interpretation, is going to be raised then it's going to bring the raison d'etre of the 'searching for cold' thread into the spotlight.

Edited January 30, 2016 by knocker

[Neilsouth]

What is everyone so upbeat about in the model section? Looks boring down south, a long run in a two and a half year period of snowless winters

[weirpig]

4 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

What is everyone so upbeat about in the model section? Looks boring down south, a long run in a two and a half year period of snowless winters

Its always boring down south.   but in all honesty   i agree  nothing of any note  like most things this winter  dull drab and mild

[knocker]

Taking the GFS this morning we are still looking at gusts in the 70kt region in the north of Scotland on Monday and perhaps some significant snowfall on the little shortwave that pops in on Wednesday in the same region before warmer weather sweeps back in.

The alternating warm/cold scenario is rather a theme of the run.

Having said that the ecm is looking in the 80kt region for surface gusts.

 

Edited January 30, 2016 by knocker

[Liam J]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

I take it from the wording of your cryptic post you were attempting to make a feeble point?

Not really, I just had a quick scan over the model discussion saw Johns post then wandered into here and saw yours, both based on anomaly charts. Yours said ' a continuation of the westerly pattern' for the next 14 days and Johns said 'The anomaly charts show how the colder spell is going to develop' so that wouldn't be a continuation of the westerly pattern? I just read them as being quite different based on the same set of charts. So you're saying temps around average with no change to the westerly regime and John used the words 'colder spell' which would suggest below average and maybe something different to the current weather pattern? 

 

 

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Not really, I just had a quick scan over the model discussion saw Johns post then wandered into here and saw yours, both based on anomaly charts. Yours said ' a continuation of the westerly pattern' for the next 14 days and Johns said 'The anomaly charts show how the colder spell is going to develop' so that wouldn't be a continuation of the westerly pattern?

 

Not sure I follow that reasoning. I'll not try to second guess John but I can see no reason why a colder spell cannot develop within a continuing westerly regime. The two aren't mutually exclusive. A shift south of the Pm air at the expense of the Tm would accomplish this. in other words the air sourced in N. Canada impacts the UK at lower latitudes. The flow on the NOAA 8-14 is still westerly with the trough around the UK. Of course if we are talking post this period then we might see height rises mid Atlantic so this would introduce a different ball game. At the end of the day the GEFs and ecm were still showing temps around average so I didn't, rightly or wrongly, find the temperature at this stage hugely significant. In fact the GEFS this morning is still looking at average.

[Neiller22]

 3 heavy snow showers this morn already in Northern Ireland and a slight covering so far.  Snow forecast on and off rest of day so can't complain really. NW PM air air quite good for us here. Hope other people get this soon also. 

[coldcomfort]

Well after a Dec that was like an Oct and a Jan that has been like a Nov, all I want to see is a Feb that is actually like a kin Feb....and looking at the latest runs and the upper air pattern, that might, might just happen!! Really shouldn't be too much to ask for should it?

Edited January 30, 2016 by coldcomfort

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm and NOAA are singing from the same sheet as the GEFS this evening, all with a very similar upper air pattern which I won't bother to repeat. The upshot of all this is that there is no sign of any significant change to the westerly regime and periods of very unsettled weather in the next fourteen days.

indeed, i think johns post is being misinterpreted. theres NO cold spell on these charts, just a continuation of an upper mean westerly flow. we can, and will, get cold northwesterlies and there will be wintriness even further south at times - but no cold snowy spell what most are looking for this winter.

john did say that (on the previous run - noaas) pressure appeared to by trying to build or theres a slight pressure build to our west. but this subsequent run has not built on this, and until there is a bulge northwards in those green lines to our west - any cold northerly will be brief.

Edited January 30, 2016 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

If this morning's ecm panned out, which of course it wont, next weekend could turn out to be very wet as the shortwave away to the east 00z Saturday, zooms east then NE in the next 24 hours. A touch of cyclogenesis with a pressure drop of 40mb.

Edited January 30, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Horrible gfs this morning, ecm is better, hoping this warming strat can finally rid of this perpetual Greenland PV sometime soon!!!

[JoeShmoe]

22 hours ago, Norrona2015 said:

Amber warnings for wind and snow for most of Scotland issued. It's already changed to a wintry mix for my location. Cairngorm mountain has recorded a 144mph gust.

https://www.facebook.com/CairnGormMtn/?fref=nf

 

Snow here this morning and more to come !!

[snowblizzard]

I'm fairly convinced the Westerly regime will continue to dominate for the foreseeable and although some PM shots will give Northern area's some reasonably good wintry conditions (especially highlands) the South will only see even more wet, windy and relatively mild conditions despite all this talk of torpedo's & SSW! The pattern will eventually change but it will be too late to impact winter, i.e. cold March/April!

Edited January 30, 2016 by snowblizzard

[joggs]

Horrible winter this has been.Westerly driven crap.People blame GFS for always flattening the pattern out but who can blame it lol

Its all we receive wind m rain from the west.

[78/79]

I've  noticed that there seems to be some sort of lag effect on our seasons, in recent years, everything appears to be running a couple of months behind where they should be

Edited January 30, 2016 by 78/79

[Jason M]

Yep, nothing anywhere to suggest anything meaningful in the way of cold. It's looking increasingly likely that another snowless winter is coming to pass. No great shock really as the writing was on the wall even before Christmas. 

obviously there is time yet, but I think this mobile pattern will endure and much like the last two winters there is no signal at all for northern blocking. Tbh, roll on Spring now, as I've had enough of the gloom.

[joggs]

And why can't the lows rum further south?

Scotland,Northern Ireland are getting pasted with snow showers today.

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

[joggs]

Lol I put f.      F.     S

[Neiller22]

50 minutes ago, joggs said:

And why can't the lows rum further south?

Scotland,Northern Ireland are getting pasted with snow showers today.

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

We sure are. Been brilliant for snow so far in Northern Ireland. Iv had and seen quite a bit of snow falling already and warning now updated until tomorrow 11am for snow. Then add another powerful storm on Monday to follow the other days the weather certainly isnt boring over here! And more snow forecast tues  and weds ! At last winter has arrived!! 

Edited January 30, 2016 by Neiller22