Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[matty40s]

I also remember Winter 2010/11, yes, it started early and we had record low temperatures in December into the start of January, however, other than that, the remainder descended into grey mush for most of January and February, with March being a stunningly sunny and enjoyable cruising month.

[Relativistic]

22 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

This isn't exactly great viewing either, look at the pattern from roughly 1970 onward, how much more average winters have gradually become http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

I don't know why you think that, are you talking purely in term of snow? Because many of the 80's Winters were very severe (December 1981, February 1986, January 1987 probably being the best examples), and the more recent, brief run of cold Winters saw Northern Scotland's coldest Winter EVER (2009/10), the coldest December EVER (2010) by national records (2nd on the CET series), and the 2nd coldest March EVER (2013) nationwide (coldest in 130 years on the CET series).

Edited January 25, 2016 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[Day 10]

I don't dispute that atall, I remember the 80's too amongst other great years. Purely by that info shown it just seems the growing trend is less frequency of "proper winters" so to speak

[Yarmy]

For the avoidance of doubt, I don't think anyone is claiming that low solar activity=guaranteed cold winter for the UK. But there is evidence that variations in solar activity can have marked effects on ozone production in the Strat (among other things) and this can materially influence the likelihood of HLB formation. 

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/gr08900n.html

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/summary/

Personally I'm not persuaded either way, but it is an interesting topic. There are so many factors though, and there seems to be a new one with each passing year.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

50 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

This isn't exactly great viewing either, look at the pattern from roughly 1970 onward, how much more average winters have gradually become http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

Well I suppose the 3 mild Winter then a cold one doesn't hold up then based on the fact in the 70s there were 6 mild Winters in a row starting with Winter 1970/71 to Winter 1975/76. That's quite a run, although this is for snow rather than cold alone i've known for a while that the 70s (apart from the late 70s) were a cold and snow lovers nightmare. Although there was an even longer run of colder Winters following this period up till Winter 1986/87. This spreadsheet has Winters 1979/80 and 1980/81 has having little snow though I don't believe these were necessarily mild Winters (though I wasn't born until 1985 so have no personal memory of them). It's surprising to see also so many Winters in the 20s and 30s being classed as average and snowy being as i've long held the impression that they were mild Winter dominated decades. So I wonder how accurate this is. But it's interesting to look through so thanks.

[cornish snow]

3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

If you check on the strat thread you can see how things are faring. The answer is pretty good, with a warming inevitable but with the size of it in question, maybe with it just creating vortex displacement without any real split (this vortex ain't coming down without a big, big struggle). As with anything that the mentioned posters have said this comes with a number of caveats; where the pv gets pushed to, will there be a recalcitrant lobe remaining over Greenland etc.)

So,i'm i right to say the torpedo is the SSW ?

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I agree  but what as that got to do with Mold snows question?

Well let's wait until mid-February; and if by then, sod all has materialized in the way of a 'torpedo' or SSW, your guess will be about as good as mine?

[cheshire snow]

11 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

I agree with you and dont doubt that GP is one of,if not the most knowledgeable poster on here.

Also,i understand that he may be busy elsewhere and cant afford the time to post.

Think it would help,however,if he could drop a line with an update on the torpedo,all my hopes and those of my children may well rest upon it firing.

 Here is the problem.even IF The Torpedo fires,Even IF the Strat plays ball,This is still not a guarantee that the UK will get colder.

 C.S

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

So,i'm i right to say the torpedo is the SSW ?

Can't bring up the exact post but, as far as I'm aware, it was to do with the initial conditions which make a SSW possible somewhere down the line, Again it's a starting point and, on the way, there are all sorts of things that could go astray, the pv being pushed in an unhelpful direction being one of many. I can understand some wanting to look for the (equivalent of) a 'magic bullet' but even cursory understanding of meteorology should tell people that one thing may lead to another but not necessarily. 

[knocker]

In the mean time tonight's anomalies are showing no indication of significant change in the next fourteen days. The GEFS is indicating more HP influence from the Euro HP later in the period but the ext ecm is having none of that.

Edited January 25, 2016 by knocker

[cornish snow]

Take it,your not a fan of this torpedo malarkey,Knocker

[Peter H]

1 hour ago, Minus 10 said:'s were largely due to tyhe Mt. St Helens

I don't dispute that atall, I remember the 80's too amongst other great years. Purely by that info shown it just seems the growing trend is less frequency of "proper winters" so to speak

It's thought the cold winters of the 1980's were largely due to the Mt. St. Helens eruption and increased levels of dust/SO2 n the atmosphere. As far as I know, the  Krakatoa eruption in 1883 led to some exceptionally cold winters in the following years.

Note the exceptionally cold December 2010 followed the eruption of that Icelandic volcano.

[Peter H]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa#Global_climate
 

Quote

 

In the year following the eruption, average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 °C (2.2 °F).[10] Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.[10] The record rainfall that hit Southern California during the “water year” from July 1883 to June 1884 – Los Angeles received 38.18 inches (969.8 mm) and San Diego 25.97 inches (659.6 mm)[11] – has been attributed to the Krakatoa eruption.[12] There was no El Niño during that period as is normal when heavy rain occurs in Southern California,[13] but many scientists doubt that there is a causal relationship.[14]

The eruption injected an unusually large amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas high into the stratosphere, which was subsequently transported by high-level winds all over the planet. This led to a global increase in sulfuric acid (H2SO4) concentration in high-level cirrus clouds. The resulting increase in cloud reflectivity (or albedo) would reflect more incoming light from the sun than usual, and cool the entire planet until the suspended sulfur fell to the ground as acid precipitation

 

 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, cornish snow said:

Take it,your not a fan of this torpedo malarkey,Knocker

Not at all cs I'm a big fan of very informative posts such as those made by GP and Tamara et al concerning the various intricate forcings upstream although I don't pretend to completely understand all of the discussion. But the problem is many people cherry pick selected passages if they sound like music to their ears whilst forgetting this is still a science in it's infancy and there are various other pieces of the puzzle that also need to fit into the whole picture so these posts are never going to be definitive as I'm sure Tamara would agree. What with El Nino, strat/trop interactions the complexities of NH dynamics are bad enough this winter and informative posts from GP and Tamara are more than welcome. And actually it's bit early to write off their conclusions.

[Nouska]

6 hours ago, Peter H said:

78/79 was a cracker of a winter, the best since 62/63 and probably the last really good one, apart from the early- mid 80's and 2009/10 and it coincided with a sunspot maximum that was far, far, better than this one.

78/79 was on the upslope to maximum and had seen quite a fall in geomagnetic activity prior to winter onset.

Recent research thinking is that it is geomagnetic activity, rather than sunspot number alone, which can create the blocking - via chemical changes in the high atmosphere. For this reason it is more likely to see blocking events at minimum and for a few years after.

It is just another piece of a very complicated, not fully understood, jigsaw that can depict a cold and snowy scene for the UK.

[knocker]

I don't as a rule take any notice of model precipitation amounts but for what it's worth the GFS take on what is likely to be a very wet few days in some areas.

[mountain shadow]

Cold zonal for the Midlands North and average zonal for the South out to mid February at least.

I would take that provided the last two weeks of February were cold and snowy. 

[snow freak]

UK winters are pants.

[snow freak]

whoever says the UK weather is unpredictable needs to think again.  I think they are fairly 'predictable'.  I can reliably predict that in the next 12 months the UK will experience a lot of wind, rain and mild temperatures....guaranteed.  If that's not predictable then I don't know what is.

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, Norway Nut said:

mushymanrob said "sorry, i dont believe in sunspots nor patterns..... " So what's your take on what happened during the Maunder Minimum?  (1645 to about 1715)

I usually forecast a cold outbreak 6 weeks ahead somewhere in the N H when the sunspot numbers head south of 75 ( new method of counting sunspots) or 50 ( traditional method). Not very useful I admit!

I also read somewhere that there is a weak correlation with sunspots when the numbers go above 150 ( traditional method of counting sunspots) or perhaps 180 ( new method).

In amongst the 11, 22, 79, 180 and I think, a newly discovered (?) 360 year solar cycles ( not to mention the longer term orbital cycles) there's bound to be some linkage with the weather.

tbh, i have no idea! are you suggesting that sunspot activity was very strong for 70 years and caused the mini ice age?

i just think that IF there was an obvious correlation between sunspots (alone, and not something else the sun could be doing) and a weather event, it would be discovered by now

[knocker]

Familiar analysis with the ecm anomalies this morning with the Aleutian LP, ridging Alaska with the vortex spreading it's wings east. Ergo no change from the very unsettled zonal fayre currently being experienced. No significant change in the ext period except if anything the trough in the eastern Atlantic becomes more influential.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Paul

[ukpaul]

Right, I just read the salient post and it was suggested that mid Jan to second week of February 1983 as an equivalent. Now I looked that up via the NCEP archive on meteociel at the  time and thought, that's long drawn out, messy, puts us in a westerly flow with more storms for the north (following the colder period from the starting point) and only eventually, sometime towards mid February, comes up with a possibly snowier outcome. The actual evolution has turned out to be very similar. The end of that period is still in FI though, and we wait to see if we get lower heights remaining over Greenland or if the warming does us no favours (which would be typical) and nudges the vortex back.

Now, I got the impression that not many had actually looked up that equivalent, with the assumption that it must be a snowfest. It wasn't, but the actual messy, stormy, long drawn out evolution that it did show has actually transpired.

Edited January 26, 2016 by ukpaul

[Paul]

A lot of posts have been hidden in here from last night / this morning. Please don't respond to trolls, best to report the messages. And a reminder for everyone, this isn't a thread for moaning about other members. 

[MP-R]

If only the upcoming spells of Pm weather could last more than a day, there may be more of a wintry element to them. With the jet the way it is, it seems Pm can't become established enough before it just gets blasted out the way by more Tm air.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If only the upcoming spells of Pm weather could last more than a day, there may be more of a wintry element to them. With the jet the way it is, it seems Pm can't become established enough before it just gets blasted out the way by more Tm air.

Good, I'm not keen on pm air, never delivers here, need -10 uppers, very rare with PM air