Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[MP-R]

41 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Good, I'm not keen on pm air, never delivers here, need -10 uppers, very rare with PM air

And Tm does? 

I'm after sunshine / colder temperatures let alone snow possibilities. Sunshine and showers is by far more interesting than what we have now.

[will_wonka]

I know the more "experts" amongst the squad here are stating the next shot of chilliness will come, but timeline wise over the past month or so it's gone from generic Feb, to first half Feb, mid Feb to now end Feb / early March by some here.

Truly pin the tail on the donkey.

i know "scientifically and with modelling assistance " 10 days is a good benchmark for future potential will it / won't it get cold / mild but frankly it's still guesswork and pattern interpretation. Signals yes but as we know - no guarantees.

We are bound to get "colder" at some point, whether sustained or just a shot.

I think for us amateurs and I'm a super am - it gets frustrating to hear about potential that constantly pushed out by timeline.

For those that do flip the coin or go with a hunch stating "it's a dead cert" certainly amongst the more regular squad, are brave or just (maybe due to frustrating Synoptics) just think f*** it and hope it happens. I guess if it pays off then credibility is abound and we all wonder what others missed! If it doesn't pay off, credibility shot due to a wild guess.

i think the majority of model discussions are excellent on here - sometimes right, mostly not but that's the joy of weather on this small rock. Keep up the great work.

ive lurked for years but the excessive "xx mentioned Feb", "xx said we will get something in his prediction back in July" - yes I'm dramatising - gets a bit long in the tooth as it rarely verifies and if it does, was nothing more than a good guess - Lady Luck and nature teamed up!

sorry for the whine but used to be "very real" on here - seems now it's a bit ego based.

mods - please feel free to move.

[Lake District Blizzards]

reports starting to come in of flooding again here in the Lake District

The way this is going it will be an even worse winter than the worst ever winter of 2013/14

[mb018538]

Welcome mr wonka.

Sometimes I do ponder to myself that even a stopped clock is right twice a day.....

I like the eternal optimism that springs on here. In the UK the game is always to look for the next window of opportunity, even though 90% of the time we know the default mild crud will dominate. It's what makes this place, and the UK climate in general, so exciting!

[Nick L]

Yep, after that lovely cold and settled spell it's looking like returning back to turgid, mild and wet dross. Could see 200mm+ in Wales, Cumbria and western Scotland in the next 10 days.

[daz_4]

Horrible outlook. Mild air sweeping through Europe. Even mountains will be without snow soon. We will need really cold air to get winter back. Continent will warm up.

[March]

5 hours ago, snow freak said:

whoever says the UK weather is unpredictable needs to think again.  I think they are fairly 'predictable'.  I can reliably predict that in the next 12 months the UK will experience a lot of wind, rain and mild temperatures....guaranteed.  If that's not predictable then I don't know what is.

I can't believe the Met Office spends all that money on supercomputers when they could just hire you for £30k. 

[mushymanrob]

6 hours ago, Paul said:

. And a reminder for everyone, this isn't a thread for moaning about other members. 

where would that thread be then?

[Bolt from the Blue]

This winter really has been the worst I've experienced, apart from last week we've really been struggling to get even just the odd settled day here and there since November. It's actually starting to make me feel depressed now, I just hope spring can deliver something more settled. 

[knocker]

At least the Azores HP comes in useful on occasion as it forces the possible nasty depression next weekend to the NE.

 

[Paul]

52 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

where would that thread be then?

It doesn't and won't ever exist! 

[knocker]

'potential' and 'upgrades' are being bandied around willy nilly........................nurses are on standby.

[snefnug]

Quick!  Be happy! man on telly say winter coming on colder...... Wot with weakening El Niño, flippin' NAO and jets reversing on the Arctic.....http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35375096

Edited January 26, 2016 by snefnug

[knocker]

The anomalies tonight are still pretty solid in their agreement of no evidence of any significant change in the next 14 days. The, for what has become, standard upstream analysis of Aleutian LP, Alaska ridging into the Pole (perhaps more pronounced), Vortex over N. Canada with the downstream lobe N. Norway. Thus the usual story of unsettled zonal which of course doesn't preclude Pm shots into, certainly the n. half, of the UK. But generally temps around average perhaps a little above but this is of little consequence when considering the more important matter of rainfall amounts.

In the ext period, including the ecm, the trough to the NE becomes more centred over the UK with the upstream pattern remaining the same although the HP does become more Pole centred on the ecm. All this effectively relegates the Euro HP to insignificance. Temps becoming cooler. Will we proceed from here to a positive height scenario mid Atlantic?

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by knocker

[davehsug]

I see "cold zonal" is the latest offering. You can already hear the wailing & gnashing of teeth over "dreaded warm sectors". If it makes people happy though.

[Peter H]

7 hours ago, snefnug said:

Quick!  Be happy! man on telly say winter coming on colder...... Wot with weakening El Niño, flippin' NAO and jets reversing on the Arctic.....http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35375096

Interesting.

This evening's long range forecast did hint at a SSW event in the second half of February and colder weather developing.

Nothing on the latest model runs which now go up to the 11th, other than brief incursions of cold air between lows.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Peter H

[knocker]

The GFS this morning remains in an unsettled westerly regime throughout apart from a brief interlude when the Azores HP ridges up from the SW. Systems embedded in this flow tending to run NE so much of the wet and windy weather is concentrated in the W/NW of the UK. Temps in general remain a tad above average but there is a tendency for a N/S split of Pm and TM air with the north sustaining some wintry interludes as the systems pass close, certainly bringing snow to the higher ground.

An example of the split

[knocker]

The ecm is similar and a beady has to kept on the depression that shoots west to east next Monday that at the moment is looking like it could produce gusts in the 70-80kt range for Scotland. Also after this by mid week the next system traverses the UK further south bringing some very wet and windy conditions to all. After hiting the North Sea the UK is plunged into a cold northerly briefly. I just thought I would mention this as I would hate to think I might be accused of cherry picking.

[cornish snow]

57 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is similar and a beady has to kept on the depression that shoots west to east next Monday that at the moment is looking like it could produce gusts in the 70-80kt range for Scotland. Also after this by mid week the next system traverses the UK further south bringing some very wet and windy conditions to all. After hiting the North Sea the UK is plunged into a cold northerly briefly. I just thought I would mention this as I would hate to think I might be accused of cherry picking.

Is that it? Is that your cold plunge post,iv'e been waiting for?

Well done,you've done it,do you feel liberated?

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

Is that it? Is that your cold plunge post,iv'e been waiting for?

Well done,you've done it,do you feel liberated?

Of course not that's the aperitif.

[snefnug]

" I just thought I would mention this as I would hate to think I might be accused of cherry picking."

In the balmy breezes of Cornwall them cherries probably ready to be picked!

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm is similar and a beady has to kept on the depression that shoots west to east next Monday that at the moment is looking like it could produce gusts in the 70-80kt range for Scotland. Also after this by mid week the next system traverses the UK further south bringing some very wet and windy conditions to all. After hiting the North Sea the UK is plunged into a cold northerly briefly

Not necessarily briefly knocker with subtle heights building into Iceland it be a bit more prolonged should the Atlantic undercut the ridge. 

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not necessarily briefly knocker with subtle heights building into Iceland it be a bit more prolonged should the Atlantic undercut the ridge. 

Oh indeed but we talking ten days down the line here so two observations. One: Will the analysis as it stands verify? And two: even if it did would you take the evolution post this chart as likely to be a prolonged cold spell,

Don't you just love that little shortwave

Place your bets

Edited January 27, 2016 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

in the words of the late great oliver hardy "i have nothing to say"

[Hocus Pocus]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh indeed but we talking ten days down the line here so two observations. One: Will the analysis as it stands verify? And two: even if it did would you take the evolution post this chart as likely to be a prolonged cold spell,

Don't you just love that little shortwave

Place your bets

You're a rascal knocker.