Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[lassie23]

Been a great winter here in  London, three frosts and half an hour of snow, coldest for three years. It snowed so much, one car almost had a slight covering on it and it was so cold that you could even see the slight frost on the grass. Roll on the next average spell....I mean cool spell.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Who would of thought at our latitude 3 snow-less winters was a possibility, and Im not even talking about the South, many towns/city in the north of England haven't seen lying snow since Jan 2013, this is quite exceptional. Its inevitable that this snow drought will end soon either this winter or by the next one but I suppose when it does occur it will be a rather special event, more so than usual. Hopefully the wait will be worth it. 

[SilverWolf]

Summary of the Model Output (and Discussion!) since December: "Looks really cold and wintry with possibility of snow after day 10..." Yes the Models have been more interesting this winter to my very untrained eye, but certain phrases are beginning to be a bit too groundhog for me now, with no result! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Summary of the Model Output (and Discussion!) since December: "Looks really cold and wintry with possibility of snow after day 10..." Yes the Models have been more interesting this winter to my very untrained eye, but certain phrases are beginning to be a bit too groundhog for me now, with no result! 

exactly and never comes any closer, and always mid month, still waiting

[coldest winter]

WINTERS ARE A THING OF THE PAST - we will have to get over it!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, coldest winter said:

WINTERS ARE A THING OF THE PAST - we will have to get over it!

not for you oop norf I don't think

[weirpig]

There is no doubt the last three winters have been dissapointing     im lucky in the respect  that i have had lying snow at least once over these years .  However this winter certainly for me has been the worst  not only for lack of snow  but also lack of anything interesting.  I think its time to call time on this winter    and hope the next one produces something better  it cant be worse.

[Snowshine]

This winter has failed to produce anything of great interest, and I think spring will face the consequences of this... a cool, gloomy spring.

[knocker]

This evening's anomalies are still singing from the same hymn sheet and more or less the same upper air analysis. Aleutian LP, ridging western N. America into the Pole. vortex N. Canada with associated trough eastern N. America and segment of the vortex north of Norway with associated trough over the UK which reduces to the latter in the later period.

Ergo the general flow remaining in the westerly quadrant throughout the next fourteen days resulting in periods of wet and windy conditions, particularly in the west and north, where some wintry conditions could prevail with snow on the high ground and perhaps even lower down. Temps variable but around average.

Edited January 28, 2016 by knocker

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Yep, you know things are dire when there are less than 100 members browsing the Mod thread in the heart of winter!  I love it when these forums are rocking but the past few years have been really trying. Nothing ever verifying and all proper Awinter eye candy always beyond 10 days. It is exhausting, just imagine what it would be like if we entered a mini ice age again, this place would be buzzing most winters 

[Buzzard]

Basically our crappy weather is cloudy and windy all year round, at about 8-15 degrees in winter and 15-20 degrees on summer. The omnipresent wind is the worst aspect of our climate, especially as I'm a runner. Wind is evil. EVIL!

[knocker]

A very wild few days coming up particularly up north where there will also be much snow. The GFS has the Monday storm gusting in the 70kt range and the ecm between 7o-80 kts

Nice view of the vortices

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-8.13,58.43,2223/loc=-6.355,57.215

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

8 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Yep, you know things are dire when there are less than 100 members browsing the Mod thread in the heart of winter!  I  

At  least there is some snow around for a few in the forecast. 

Edited January 29, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Norrona2015]

High winds up at Cairngorm today. Reports of gusts of over 130mph at the summit with heavy snow.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Norrona2015

[cheeky_monkey]

peoples ability in the MOD thread to state the blindingly obvious like it is some kind of miraculous revelation..well done Sherlock.

[Norrona2015]

Amber warnings for wind and snow for most of Scotland issued. It's already changed to a wintry mix for my location. Cairngorm mountain has recorded a 144mph gust.

https://www.facebook.com/CairnGormMtn/?fref=nf

 

[Liam J]

If you want some pretty severe wintry weather head up north! 

Quote

A band of rain will move in from the northwest on Friday evening and quickly turn to snow before it clears. Frequent snow showers are then expected overnight and well into Saturday, heavy at times, with some more prolonged spells of snow likely. 5 to 10 cm snowfall is likely to accumulate quite widely, with over 15 cm in places above 300 metres. Ice is also likely to form on untreated surfaces.

Quote

In addition, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely at times, occasionally 70 mph across the far north and west of the amber area and over mountains. This will lead to blizzard conditions at times and drifting of snow. Power supplies may be disrupted by ice accretion and also by lightning strikes, with hail also likely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1454112000&regionName=dg

Edited January 29, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[snefnug]

Is it me or do Meto and Beeb over egg puddings?  Yellow warning of strong winds still here (which undoubtedly they were overnight and early this morning) but now what my old nan would have said was a 'brisk drying day' ( washing duly out and fluctuating in the breeze). Obviously this is an IMBY post and not reflective of Gertie's travels  through the North of England, Ireland or Scotland or any other dominions in between.

Edited January 29, 2016 by snefnug

[Mokidugway]

Nothing of any note in Cumbria ,a bit blowey overnight that's all

[Dami]

Don't want anymore wind. Hate wind. Even if it was snowing i will still hate the wind.

[knocker]

Todd Crawford ‏@tcrawf_nh 3h3 hours ago

Anyone remember last February? The four horsemen of the apocalypse are back, at least in the ECM week4 forecast

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago

Remember last February? A top 5 cold month for many states in the NE? Late Feb forecast pattern extremely similar.

Edited January 29, 2016 by knocker

[sundog]

^^^^^That ecm wk 4 chart wouldnt be good for wintry weather over here.  So lets hope not then eh!!!!!

Edited January 29, 2016 by sundog

[Peter H]

Models over the next couple of weeks looking good now, especially towards the end of the current run, and that's even before the main event in mid-late February.

Some snow forecast here over the next 24 hrs too.

 

[knocker]

The Monday storm is still indicating gusts between 70-80kts in the north of Scotland

And the latest METO update continues to be good news for everyone with indications of some dry , crisp weather on the eastern flank of a high pressure cell.

EDIT

And straight from the woodshed it wouldn't take much to turn this into white out conditions in Scotland.

Edited January 29, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

No sign on the GEFS anomalies tonight of any imminent pattern change. Upstream still the familiar Aleutian LP. ridging in the western N. America into the Pole and vortex N. Canada with associated trough down the east of N. America. Downstream still remnants of the PV segment and trough over the UK.  Ergo a continuation of the unsettled westerly regime currently being experienced.

Essentially this analysis remains the same through the ext period but perhaps should be noted that expected change with heights building mid Atlantic is scheduled two or three days beyond the ext period

EDIT

It should be noted the ecm has the storm next week 958mb just north of Thurso 00z Tuesday which could bring gusts of 80kts plus to N. Scotland.

Edited January 29, 2016 by knocker