Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[David Morse]

Nacreous clouds seen over Dublin this morning :-) 

http://lovindublin.com/pics/these-stunning-rare-clouds-have-been-appearing-across-ireland-this-morning

 

 

[mushymanrob]

ok.... its feb 1 and theres no sign of any possible cold evolution, id have thought that it is now rather unlikely that we will get a decent cold spell this winter outside the odd couple of days here and there.

however, the jet cannot blow forever, its not jupiter! and there will be a settlement at some point in the future. i must admit, and i dont like it, that march might well turn out to be the coldest month of the season...

[snowangel32]

Not liking the look for Febuary again models showing deep cold for the U.S. and we all know what that will do the jet stream. Impossible to get cold under those circumstances. I now welcome spring as this winter to sum it up in a nut shell has been looks good at 10 days away then damm shortwave lol. Roll on spring my towell is in the ring.

Edited February 1, 2016 by snowangel32

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

the modern Feb though it feels like, 'winter' months feel like autumn really now, miss the 90's winters

Were not a patch on the 80s winters or 70s come to that

[I remember Atlantic 252]

another washout sunday coming up, unreal how Sundays are always wet, 3 GFS runs on the trot now writing off Sunday

[coldcomfort]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

ok.... its feb 1 and theres no sign of any possible cold evolution, id have thought that it is now rather unlikely that we will get a decent cold spell this winter outside the odd couple of days here and there.

however, the jet cannot blow forever, its not jupiter! and there will be a settlement at some point in the future. i must admit, and i dont like it, that march might well turn out to be the coldest month of the season...

Wouldn't be a disaster in March imo, but I have a horrible feeling that April and even May will be much colder than average, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see the Apr CET turn out to be lower than last Dec. Nothing worst than seeing potent northerlies bringing frequent snow showers in April imo, but this spring has got that kind of setup written all over it for me.....I just hope I'm wrong!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

ok.... its feb 1 and theres no sign of any possible cold evolution, id have thought that it is now rather unlikely that we will get a decent cold spell this winter outside the odd couple of days here and there.

however, the jet cannot blow forever, its not jupiter! and there will be a settlement at some point in the future. i must admit, and i dont like it, that march might well turn out to be the coldest month of the season...

I'm dreading April/May, dominated by greenie high, wet in south, snowless, no warmth

[MP-R]

May always tends to be a tricky one I feel - only 2004 and 2008 stick out to me as being settled for at least half the month. More often than not it's a pretty unsettled month with summer only properly kicking in in June. I'm hoping that if we get landed with easterlies and northeasterlies in May, they are of a returning warm variety. 2008 featured both a warm easterly and a cool northeasterly which just brought cloudy conditions and cold nights, then a very wet final week for the south as lows pushed up against the northerly-situated high. No thanks!

[joggs]

Absolutely dreadful winter.

[cheeky_monkey]

21 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Not liking the look for Febuary again models showing deep cold for the U.S. and we all know what that will do the jet stream. Impossible to get cold under those circumstances. I now welcome spring as this winter to sum it up in a nut shell has been looks good at 10 days away then damm shortwave lol. Roll on spring my towell is in the ring.

its not impossible...winter 77/78 was exceptionally cold and snowy across N.America the worst of the 20th Century and far worse than their recent winters..we also had some decent snow events in January and February 1978

Edited February 1, 2016 by cheeky_monkey

[snowangel32]

12 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its not impossible...winter 77/78 was exceptionally cold and snowy across N.America the worst of the 20th Century and far worse than their recent winters..we also had some decent snow events in January and February 1978

True but it's getting a rare beast now, and looks very unlikely from the current set up. Best we can hope for is a watered down Northerly. 

[cornish snow]

Viewing the latest model output,reminds me of a kids T.V show from the 80's "Why dont you"

What was it they said?  

"Sitting at home watching T.V,turn it off,it's no good to me.

Think i'll turn of my lap-top and go out and do something less boring instead.

 

[knocker]

The ecm anomalies this morning are indicating no significant change in the next fourteen days. The 5-10 highlights the familiar pattern very well and I'll include the 850mb temp anomaly out of interest as well. No huge difference in the ext period with a suggestion the the UK trough extends a tad south and height increases in the western Atlantic thus veering the upper flow NW and shifting the cooler Pm and rPm air further south.

Abandon hope all ye who enter here

[Fozfoster]

The towel is thrown in.................................

[Gord]

I'm not throwing my towel in yet but I will admit that a real possibility of yet another dreadful winter is starting to show it's ugly head. I hope I'm wrong.

I have to say that if it does stay this way to the end, then I'm afraid I'll be approaching next winter with no enthusiasm whatsoever. I struggled coming into this one to be honest and my interest in the weather is being killed off significantly at the moment. It's such a shame. The science behind it all still fascinates me but I want to see something actually happen at ground level now.

 

[sundog]

I would give it until middle of the month before i throw the towel in with this autumn or sorry i mean winter.

Looks like the strat wont be much use to us now after all if im understanding it right. That i find the most bloody frustrating of all,you wait all winter,then its like sorry folks no joy this winter again.

[mountain shadow]

Like most Winters, it is a case of what can go wrong will go wrong.

We had the failed Easterly in January due to a rogue shortwave and now even the Strat warming has conspired against us by pushing the trop vortex to North Atlantic and keeping the Westerlies going. It is another Winter without a proper Greenland or Scandanavian block.

It is even more frustrating when you get excited when a forecast shows great potential, such as the OPI last Winter and GP's torpedo this Winter and well it just doesn't happen.

Next Winter, stick to the NOAA anomalies out to Day 14 and the Met Office extended to Day 31 and you won't be far wrong. Anything forecasting past Day 31 such as GLAAM, AAM, Mountain Torques etc. in my view is just Hocu Pocus for our small islands.

[snowray]

So no 10 day carrot out there today then, oh well. 

 

February can be a very cold month indeed but you really need to see a pattern change to colder conditions in the 1st ten days or so of the month, if its in situ with snow cover over large areas it can stay very cold all the way through and the stronger sun has very little effect.  On the other hand if its a cold blast Mid/late month I usually find that things are starting to get watered down particularly in the South, yes of course it can snow but the depth of cold is simply not there. My birthday is mid February and its just my own rule of thumb having noticed big differences in 1st half and 2nd half of February snow events.

May get something out of the ordinary pop up though, like Match 13 or November 00, these out of season extremes seem to be the order of the day these days. March/April I bet will be colder than December/January, still think a white Easter or at least a very cold one is likely.

Edited February 1, 2016 by snowray

[cheshire snow]

Just imagine if the models did a u turn

and we get snow and ice in March.

there again I suppose some would

still moan and whinge 

C.S

[snowray]

Early/Mid March would still be ok, but after that people are looking forward to some warmth and sunshine, trips out, gardening etc. I know that some on here keep saying that we are just a small Island, but consider that all of Western Europe has had very little in the way of cold and snow this Winter so far, in fact there is a drought in many places due to the persistence of the Euro high since November.

 

When Western Europe gets snowfall, its most often from the North so it has to come over this small little Island, I mean are we are talking about the complete lack of meaningful Northerly outbursts? 

Its in fact the shape of the British Isles that hinders more widespread snowfall not the theory that we are just a small island in a warm sea, we often get the right set up/temperatures, but end up with the ever popular wishbone effect. Lost count of the number of times I have watched heavy snow all the way down the North Sea just clipping the coast of East Anglia, places like Lowestoft, this happened again just now in January! The Mountains in the North also block a lot of Wintry PPN from moving South so we are in fact pretty well protected in the UK, apart from Northern Scotland.

Edited February 1, 2016 by snowray

[stewfox]

21 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just imagine if the models did a u turn

and we get snow and ice in March.

there again I suppose some would

still moan and whinge

C.S

i have had white blossom on my car last few days from a tree near home

I'll take snow and ice any time of year just tends to melt quicker as you go into 'spring'

So I'll start the moan

"just look at these synoptics we are having April 22 2016, if we had them in early feb , soooo unfair""

 

 

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

in terms of a cold winter with snow..i threw in the towel last summer..the writing has been on the wall ever since then with the basin wide large el-nino..which had mild and wet winter written all over it..don't see the synoptics changing much through February and nothing I can see show any pattern change either.

[snow freak]

this lousy winter is dead in the water....thank god.  cant wait for it to be over now.

[Carl46Wrexham]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Fergie mantions anticyclonic cold in late Feb- if it was Dec/Jan fair enough but anticyclonic cold in late Feb pretty much useless in my book, thats not a slight at fergie but for me,late feb high any cold will be negated by stronger sun longer days etc.

Right up there with 87/88 88/89 89/90 this sorry excuse of a winter.I really hope something changes with our weather patterns coldcomfort, north west of england has had enough rain over the last 3 years to last a lifetime

So now it's late Feb? What happened to mid Feb? While I'm at it what happened to the colder second half of winter? Big joke that was....all wishful thinking and straw clutching at charts 16 days in the future....nonsense. I'm all for a bit of optimism but some of the stuff in the Model thread is ridiculous.

Throw in the damn towel people, it's not happening. Winter 2015/16 is a bust. Yes I'm calling it.

[Chris K]

Well as rubbish as this winter has been so far, I still enjoy learning about the science behind why it has been a predominantly mild, wet winter for the first 2/3 of the season. A few years ago I had no clue about just how much was involved and just how complex it was to even think about forecasting weather in the medium/long term timescales.

Since joining this community, it has increased my own knowledge and interest in meteorology. The fact we get an insight from professionals from Netweather and other organisations, even detailed snippets from Met Office themselves through the likes of Mr Fergusson, is in my view so so valuable if you are wanting to learn and understand the links between a wide range of subjects. This includes weather observations & forecasting, oceanography, climate change, atmospheric sciences..the list can go on.

A majority of members online during the winter season are after the white stuff and/or prolonged freezing temperatures. If it doesnt get delivered, the despondency and frustration grows. I know because that includes me. However we do still have 4 weeks left of meteorological winter and of course whilst by then most people want things to warm up, March and April are more than capable of delivering settling snow. I can see what Steve Murr meant when he explained a while ago that that whilst you can see the great N Hemisphere patterns in place, it only takes a 'shortwave' or disturbance closer to home to completely wipe out our chances until the next attempt.

We were told from the start that actually this winter had more factors going against anything prolonged and cold developing and in some ways eyes were on the Stratosphere (plus other factors) to see if we could salvage something during the tail end of the season. Still possible in my opinion - we have 1/3rd of winter left. But if we lose out again, then we will have to record winter 2015/16 as another large thorn in the backside of coldies.

I suppose it is easier for me to accept - after winter I start going into thunderstorm hunting mode, so I have interests to look out for most of the year bar a couple of months, where we tend to see benign conditions dominate. It is just a shame areas have suffered too much rain and subsequent flooding again this winter. I'm sure my skin is getting paler by the day from the lack of sun too!

Edited February 1, 2016 by Chris K