Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[ukpaul]

Yes, wind is the most immediately destructive of weathers (and when rain comes with it even moreso). It may be interesting on a cerebral level but weather affects people and most will. I imagine, be concerned about that instead. 

Cold here tends to be anticyclonic so that's what I hope for, with the beauty of slowly falling snow (blizzards I can do without). What I fear is wind and rain, which in  the winter means mild also, so it makes the UK a pretty poor place for me to be at  the moment......

If you don't feel comfortable in the climate you are in then what can you do? Are there Eskimo dreaming of ninety degree heat? Saharan Africans hankering after a good snowstorm? People in the Atacama desert desperate to see it rain every week?

[Carl46Wrexham]

22 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I share your frustration and have just replied to said member's rather sweeping post.

Excellent post - however I fear it might be deleted for not being model related.

[mushymanrob]

25 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I share your frustration and have just replied to said member's rather sweeping post.

sorry old chap, i agree with gibby .

and i AM an 'all or nothing' person, i dont like the cold - i do like mild, but i do like a damn good blizzard with DEEP drifting snow. cold for the sake of cold imho is pointless, as is getting excited by cherry picked fi charts.

[shane303]

People who are saying winter is over have not looked at the weather history of the U.K. Some real heavy snow storms have happened even in south uk in March and early April. Anyway the latest model outputs still show a very uncertain week next week with some very deep lows likely and some nasty traveling conditions even in the south.

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Excellent post - however I fear it might be deleted for not being model related.

So be it lol. It wasn't to stir an argument, just to address a rather one-side comment.

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

sorry old chap, i agree with gibby .

and i AM an 'all or nothing' person, i dont like the cold - i do like mild, but i do like a damn good blizzard with DEEP drifting snow. cold for the sake of cold imho is pointless, as is getting excited by cherry picked fi charts.

Each to their own, mate. I don't slate mildies - if you can see something gratifying in this mild weather then that's fine. I just can't unfortunately. 

 

 

People will always look for what they want in the model runs, and if it appears, then there's nothing wrong discussing it imo.

[ManiaMuse]

Gibby's posts are the ones I look at when skim reading the model thread. He neatly summarises what the models are showing/trending towards and generally discusses what is likely to happen with the weather.

It might be boring and repetitive but you can't change what the atmosphere is doing and therefore what the models are showing.

"This weather is hardly of interest anymore having been going strong since late October and is irritatingly repetitive" is hardly a one-side thing to say either, if anything it is interesting because it has been so persistent!

 

 

[mountain shadow]

So, that's Winter over for another year without a widespread longish cold spell (+5 days). Last year was EQBO and this year WQBO and the weather has been almost exactly the same...wet, windy and above average.

The SSW didn't occur and the minor warming simply made it colder zonal rather than warmish zonal.

The GLAAM spikes and mountain torques made little difference and only a wee MJO phase 8 in January gave some a smidgen of snow and ice. The analogues were poor as ever and the colder North Atlantic made not a blind bit of difference.

Surely next year Winter must be different? La Nina, EQBO, declining solar activity? or will this all be overridden by the same old Greenland vortex powerhouse?

[MP-R]

9 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

 

"This weather is hardly of interest anymore having been going strong since late October and is irritatingly repetitive" is hardly a one-side thing to say either, if anything it is interesting because it has been so persistent!

 

Perhaps that's where we differ. I don't find the same weather last night on four months interesting. The same would go for snow. Plus, I was referring to Gibby's comment being one-sided, not mine.

[Evening thunder]

 

I can understand it doesn't hold the interest that snow does for many, but surely it's better for the MOD thread to discuss what is showing in the models (at least those that want to - especially if it could be disruptive), rather than be silent because what some people want isn't showing therefore we're not allowed to discuss what is?  After all I don't think it is meant to be a preferences thread.

I actually do find the outlook kind of interesting because here there hasn't been a single event that I would call a 'storm' this winter (maybe the 30th Dec just meets that criteria). This is what looks different, the lows look further south and the Euro high is banished.. the anomaly charts show deeply negative pressure anomalies whereas most of this winter they have been positive in the south.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Evening thunder

[knocker]

I love cats

And while I think of it surely 'sliders' and 'topplers' are a must for the swear filter. And more pending.......................

[snowray]

Has anyone noticed whats moving South tonight, probably marginal but could be a flake or two about I would think. Seems we can get short term upgrades after all.

Just a little interest there maybe instead of moaning and arguing....

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

 

I can understand it doesn't hold the interest that snow does for many, but surely it's better for the MOD thread to discuss what is showing in the models (at least those that want to - especially if it could be disruptive), rather than be silent because what some people want isn't showing therefore we're not allowed to discuss what is?  After all I don't think it is meant to be a preferences thread.

I actually do find the outlook kind of interesting because here there hasn't been a single event that I would call a 'storm' this winter (maybe the 30th Dec just meets that criteria). This is what looks different, the lows look further south and the Euro high is banished.. the anomaly charts show deeply negative pressure anomalies whereas most of this winter they have been positive in the south.

Well you may find such weather interesting, and good luck to you. I hate it...such weather fills me with thoughts of how many ridge tiles am I going to lose? ..how many destroyed fence panels do I have to pay to replace this time? How much of my hard earned is going to be lost through the costs of repairing damage caused by what this wretched tedious season is throwing at us?

Interesting? Not for me it isn't. Roll on Spring - it can't come soon enough.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Has anyone noticed whats moving South tonight, probably marginal but could be a flake or two about I would think. Seems we can get short term upgrades after all.

Just a little interest there maybe instead of moaning and arguing....

Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

[Ripeberry]

At least this winter has not been as boring as 2005. Weeks and weeks of cold, sunny weather and no storms or flakes of snow. It has certainly kept us 'entertained' one way or another. 

[Evening thunder]

28 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Well you may find such weather interesting, and good luck to you. I hate it...such weather fills me with thoughts of how many ridge tiles am I going to lose? ..how many destroyed fence panels do I have to pay to replace this time? How much of my hard earned is going to be lost through the costs of repairing damage caused by what this wretched tedious season is throwing at us?

Interesting? Not for me it isn't. Roll on Spring - it can't come soon enough.

Thanks

Though to be fair I may not like it if it damaged my house (I'd probably still find it interesting, like I expect many would if they had so much snow their roof collapsed..) though that has never happened (guess I'm in a more sheltered area) and I don't expect it to. I don't think current operational charts show anything far outside the range of what happens every few years anyway (not to say worse isn't possible).

As an all round weather person that also likes recording data, I just find it much more interesting than the tedium of this winter's pattern so far, sending most of it north (poor NW Britain), and leaving endless overcast breezy tedium here. Hopefully, with the jet further south everything but the kitchen sink is thrown in, and the rain bands move through quicker (without such orographically enhanced totals in the NW). But, I don't wish for or expect my preferences to offend anyone, as with likers of similarly disruptive cold and snow (which includes me).

I'd actually prefer cold and snow, but that ain't gunna happen any time soon here.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Evening thunder

[snowray]

26 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

By the looks of it they are more interested in moaning than anything else in here Ian....

 

Could be a few surprise snowfalls around then later this evening, latest Met Office video shows the band of rain sleet and snow quite clearly.  

[fergieweather]

25 minutes ago, snowray said:

By the looks of it they are more interested in moaning than anything else in here Ian....

 

Could be a few surprise snowfalls around then later this evening, latest Met Office video shows the band of rain sleet and snow quite clearly.  

Peak District looks in the box seat for this one, says latest UKV

[snowray]

Looking good. There you go guys, what more do we want in early Feb, upgrades!

[knocker]

WBFL 06

[Walsall Wood Snow]

45 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Peak District looks in the box seat for this one, says latest UKV

This actually shows a blob of mixed rain/snow over the Walsall area so even I may get a surprise from this. Don't expect anything of note here though but I suppose it wouldn't be impossible just unlikely (as far as proper snow is concerned). A fair chance I could see a sleety mix though looking at that.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A bit late now but I've ordered some prozac to get me through to the end of this pathetic winter.

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Perhaps that's where we differ. I don't find the same weather last night on four months interesting. The same would go for snow. Plus, I was referring to Gibby's comment being one-sided, not mine.

..... but i didnt read gibbys post as 'one sided', far from it, he said that all weather types should be discussed and not just the hunt for cold.

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, shane303 said:

People who are saying winter is over have not looked at the weather history of the U.K. Some real heavy snow storms have happened even in south uk in March and early April.

yep, look at weather history here in the uk, and youll find that 'heavy snow storms' in march and april are extremely rare following a mild dec-feb. late snow events usually follow an already cold winter.

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, look at weather history here in the uk, and youll find that 'heavy snow storms' in march and april are extremely rare following a mild dec-feb. late snow events usually follow an already cold winter.

 

Any actual evidence to back this up

[knocker]

Still looking down the barrel next weekend and no let up with the jet.

Edited February 2, 2016 by knocker