Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

Breaking news from the woodshed.

Just heard next weeks forecast on Countryfile and it's very underwhelming for cold and snow lovers. Zilch snow and not very cold.

Edited February 7, 2016 by knocker

[ReindeerMarmalade]

1 hour ago, Law of averages!! said:

 

There are two things a career in science has taught me:

1. Explaining science is often akin to trying to plait vomit

2. Dunning-Kruger Syndrome is more pervasive than anyone could've ever dreamed

[cheshire snow]

Yes very underwhelming Countryside 

forecast,can only imagine  the Evening

runs have not been factored in,or

maybe they have,and the term Garden path springs to mind

C.S

 

 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes very underwhelming Countryside 

forecast,can only imagine  the Evening

runs have not been factored in,or

maybe they have,and the term Garden path springs to mind

C.S

 

 

 

Pre recorded/old data.

[March]

5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Pre recorded/old data.

You're right, there's a snow storm coming! 

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes very underwhelming Countryside 

forecast,can only imagine  the Evening

runs have not been factored in,or

maybe they have,and the term Garden path springs to mind

C.S

 

 

 

I don't think this evenings ecm is much different to the CF forecast.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well BBC doesn't believe in knife edge, whether we have southerly, W'ly, N'ly or E'ly winds London remains at 9-10c

 

BFTP

Well, as the models (which, of course, could turn out wrong) seem to indicate winds form mostly between SW and NW, the coming week looks like not delivering much in the way of snow, away from the north and high ground - so, 'knife-edge' might be a stretch...Who knows?

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Some complicate synoptics this week which tends to make these knife edge scenarios towards the end of the week a tad academic.  Not to worry. The ecm is showing a possibility of a transient snow event for South Wales and southern counties next Friday as it whips a shortwave SE across the west country. The run ends with rain and westerly gales. Now that's different.

Yes. Sigh. I'm sick and tired of this winter now. The cricket season is my next outdoor focus.... and it needs to damn well stop raining of else there wont be any rolling for eons. I'm struggling to remember, but was 98/99 worse than this? 

[wishingforsnow]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Pre recorded/old data.

Most likely, they're usually put together before the evening runs come out and aired at the same time. 

Also I recall Countryfile and the Beeb downplaying the January cold spell as there kept being no mention of cold until a few days before it started despite the model runs being increasingly indicative of cold weather coming. 

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[knocker]

The ecm 5-10 anomaly tonight shows no significant change with a trough eastern seaboard, HP to the SW in mid Atlantic with low pressure stretching from the vortex SE to a trough over the UK running down into Europe. Ergo the flow remains WNW so systems will tend to run further south over the UK just north of the jet. Thus wet and windy periods some of which may produce some snow but generally on high ground and to the north.

In the ext period the eastern seaboard trough is no more and the Atlantic HP retrogresses and ridges slightly to the NW but the negatively tilted trough remains over the UK. The general flow veers a tad but still periods of unsettled weather with temps around average.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

 

 

[jethro]

4 hours ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

 

Indeed they would. And they'd be wrong  That's why science (and reality) doesn't give a monkey's about belief or opinion. But the wonderful thing about all science is that it's falsifiable...all anyone who disagrees with something like global warming has to do is go through all the climate science research and disprove it (preferably with something more substantial than "I don't believe in global warming").

 

 

Falsifiable......that's pretty dodgy ground when talking climate science.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

17 minutes ago, jethro said:

Falsifiable......that's pretty dodgy ground when talking climate science.

I've heard this a few times, particularly from proponents of philosophy of science. These people seldom have the same concerns over the falsifiability of string theory

[jethro]

13 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

I've heard this a few times, particularly from proponents of philosophy of science. These people seldom have the same concerns over the falsifiability of string theory

Nowt to do with philosophy or string theory, just the simple, old fashioned thing of scientific principle.

[knocker]

Still on schedule for Arctic blast next weekend

Sidney's American cousins are not amused

Edited February 8, 2016 by knocker

[cheeky_monkey]

On ‎05‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 5:53 PM, cornish snow said:

Damm right. And Ted tuckerman.

lol I had a Ted Tuckerman jumper...remember those?

[cornish snow]

12 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

lol I had a Ted Tuckerman jumper...remember those?

Cant say as i do but remember him and Mike Milburn.

Like Blur V Oasis of the fishing world. They dont make telly like that anymore.

[Nick L]

Some cracking output for northern hills at the moment!

[cheeky_monkey]

Just now, cornish snow said:

Cant say as i do but remember him and Mike Milburn.

Like Blur V Oasis of the fishing world. They dont make telly like that anymore.

he used to wear a big white roll neck jumper...all similar jumpers when I was at school were called a 'Ted Tuckerman'

[cornish snow]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

he used to wear a big white roll neck jumper...all similar jumpers when I was at school were called a 'Ted Tuckerman'

Oh yeah,remember that. spose he's pushing up daisey's now. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Some cracking output for northern hills at the moment!

yes agree certainly for today up to thurs, fri to Sun on ECM, but the sliders seem to be tracking too far south on GFS, too far north on ECM, for N midlands snow

[Weather-history]

Grim stats

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

362.0 1937

340.0 1977

337.7 1912

335.2 1979

332.6 1923

331.9 2001

331.7 1883

330.6 1834

330.4 1925

330.2 1930

329.4 1910

328.4 1935

327.8 2007

326.5 1980

323.9 1919

322.9 1900

320.1 1928

319.6 1791

318.9 1939

~318  2016 up to 5th

 

Edited February 8, 2016 by Weather-history

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Grim stats

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

362.0 1937

340.0 1977

337.7 1912

335.2 1979

332.6 1923

331.9 2001

331.7 1883

330.6 1834

330.4 1925

330.2 1930

329.4 1910

328.4 1935

327.8 2007

326.5 1980

323.9 1919

322.9 1900

320.1 1928

319.6 1791

318.9 1939

~318  2016 up to 5th

 

..... but there was some heavy snow in some of those winters near the top - 1990, 1995..

[mushymanrob]

meanwhile - the outlook is pretty dire tbh, predominantly cool/cold wet and windy, suits no one really.

[Nick L]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

meanwhile - the outlook is pretty dire tbh, predominantly cool/cold wet and windy, suits no one really.

Yep, occasional glimmers of decent wintry stuff in the model output, but nowhere near consistent enough for me to want to take them seriously.

Bring on the first sunny spring day with temperatures into the high teens!