Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

Tremenheere Estate was the vineyard for the Monks of St Michaels Mount in the 15th century

[Walsall Wood Snow]

7 hours ago, Nick L said:

1685/86 saw a DJF CET of 6.5, 6.5 and 6. So it was pretty mild but not that mild. That's a similar average to 2013/14.

Ok fair point. Does anybody know exactly which Winter stands as the mildest in the CET record though, because I heard it was that one. I have heard though that during that Winter that some people were praying for more seasonal temperatures and that the famous diarist Samuel Pepys noted that there were Butterflies about in either January or February apparently. The thing we've got to consider aswell is those CET figures are monthly averages rounded off to the nearest .0 and .5. There could have been some exceptionally mild days and weeks that those figures are masking.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

 though when Ian did his forecast he did hint at a much colder end to the season!

 

I bet when the Metoffice contingency forecast is updated it suggests the possibility of a significantly colder second half of winter. Can't get a bigger hint from the pros than that and they must have some confidence in this if they're making reference to it in forecasts this far out!

[BornFromTheVoid]

15 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Ok fair point. Does anybody know exactly which Winter stands as the mildest in the CET record though, because I heard it was that one. I have heard though that during that Winter that some people were praying for more seasonal temperatures and that the famous diarist Samuel Pepys noted that there were Butterflies about in either January or February apparently. The thing we've got to consider aswell is those CET figures are monthly averages rounded off to the nearest .0 and .5. There could have been some exceptionally mild days and weeks that those figures are masking.

The warmest winter is 6.8C in 1869.

Top 5

1869: 6.8C
1834: 6.5C
1989: 6.5C
1975: 6.4C
2007: 6.4C

Below is a graph of all CET winters, with the 30 year average in orange

 

EDIT: Also, if this month ends up as 9.0C, we'd only need January and February to average 4.8C for a top 5 mildest winter, or 5.6C for the mildest on record.

 

Edited December 17, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Evening thunder]

30 minutes ago, chris55 said:

 

Thank god for December 2010 eh. Points West just had a reminisce of 2010 in there report on how mild this December is turning out to be, though when Ian did his forecast he did hint at a much colder end to the season!

 

 

Ah the best Christmas day ever, -14C to start with here.
 

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I bet when the Metoffice contingency forecast is updated it suggests the possibility of a significantly colder second half of winter. Can't get a bigger hint from the pros than that and they must have some confidence in this if they're making reference to it in forecasts this far out!

I think it already does, or at least says that the probability of colder than average conditions later in winter is higher than normal 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/g/A3_plots-temp-DJF_v2.pdf

Edited December 17, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Singularity]

You know, I had a funny thought today - that we'd be on here in mid-February after a month of perishing cold and making comments along the lines of 'Forgive me for saying this, but I actually preferred it when it was mild!' Just imagine...!

But please, do not take this to be in any way a serious forecast or even suggestion of upcoming conditions! It's just a very small possibility among countless others - and arguably the most ironic. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

8 hours ago, Nick L said:

 

[Costa Del Fal]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Tremenheere Estate was the vineyard for the Monks of St Michaels Mount in the 15th century

I'm feeling warm just looking at that image. Oh please hurry up summer!

[Bradowl]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It might be a stretch...but the only other Decembers I can recall being anywhere near as warm as this one looks like being were 1974 and 1988 - and both were followed by freakish coldness in Spring and relatively long, hot summers...Just a thought.

 

I remember us have a few very mild winters in 1970s, can also remember one winter when we had lots of snow in April, 1974 might have been the one.

We also had some heavy snow in May one year.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

 

I remember us have a few very mild winters in 1970s, can also remember one winter when we had lots of snow in April, 1974 might have been the one.

We also had some heavy snow in May one year.

That might have been May 1975? That was the year when it snowed on the 2nd of June...

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The warmest winter is 6.8C in 1869.

Top 5

1869: 6.8C
1834: 6.5C
1989: 6.5C
1975: 6.4C
2007: 6.4C

Below is a graph of all CET winters, with the 30 year average in orange

 

EDIT: Also, if this month ends up as 9.0C, we'd only need January and February to average 4.8C for a top 5 mildest winter, or 5.6C for the mildest on record.

 

Thanks BFTV. Interesting how the top 2 warmest occurred in the 19th century, with the mildest been in 1868/69 and the second mildest been 1833/34 which was still in what was regarded as the LIA though. 1974/75, 1988/89 and 2006/07 aren't really a surprise being in the top 5 though. I wonder if 1685/86 isn't included either because it falls below the top 5 or because we've only got figures to the nearest .0 and .5 so the Winters of the late 17th century are excluded from the records?

Also mods sometimes when I try to reply my previous reply comes up if it quoted someone. Which is why my last post is a blank one with a  quote I blanked from Nick L. Why does this happen?

Edited December 17, 2015 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

 

Also mods sometimes when I try to reply my previous reply comes up if it quoted someone. Which is why my last post is a blank one with a  quote I blanked from Nick L. Why does this happen?

That's a problem we are all experiencing, WWS - it's not a conspiracy!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Can anybody send a link with all the monthly CET figures going back to 1659? I've tried looking on Google but can't find anything going back that far. Thanks in advance if you can.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Can anybody send a link with all the monthly CET figures going back to 1659? I've tried looking on Google but can't find anything going back that far. Thanks in advance if you can.

Pretty sure I used them for my geog dissertation a few years back but can't remember where I found them!

[Nouska]

11 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Can anybody send a link with all the monthly CET figures going back to 1659? I've tried looking on Google but can't find anything going back that far. Thanks in advance if you can.

Here's the main page with download links.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm anomaly at T240 is a pattern I think we could all reproduce without looking. The vortex NW Greenland with associated trough digging along way south mid Atlantic and the European HP ridging from Italy to the southern Baltic. Ergo a SW flow bringing unsettled weather mainly confined to the north and temps above average.

In the ext period by T360 the vortex the same but both the trough and HP have weakened, albeit keeping the same orientation, thus veering the flow to WSW and perhaps introducing more unsettled conditions except perhaps to the south with temps a little above average. This is actually a little deceptive as during the ext period there is a brief amplification flourish that that could drag some warmer air up from the SW

So essentially pretty much more of the same with periods of unsettled weather more prevalent in the north before New Year the winds veering perhaps becoming more unsettled for all with temps much neared normal than of late.

I don't have much input, but I'd like to share this GIF on behalf of nearly everyone right now.

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Thanks Nouska.

[BornFromTheVoid]

43 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Can anybody send a link with all the monthly CET figures going back to 1659? I've tried looking on Google but can't find anything going back that far. Thanks in advance if you can.

Here's the CET data as an excel file if you want it. Take the hassle out of formatting it.

Temp_CET.xlsx

EDIT: Obviously though, the value there for December 2015 isn't correct on that spreadsheet!

Edited December 17, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Thanks BFTV

[knocker]

I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion, for about the 20th time, that it's pointless posting in the other thread unless you are actually posting something the vast majority want to hear.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

EDIT: Obviously though, the value there for December 2015 isn't correct on that spreadsheet!

No, it will be too low!

[sundog]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

That might have been May 1975? That was the year when it snowed on the 2nd of June...

May 1979 im sure is the snow in may Bradowl meant.

Edited December 17, 2015 by sundog

[Liam J]

You know it's mild when the local weather presenter says 'feeling fresher on Sunday' and the graphic is showing 10c... 

[Carl46Wrexham]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

You know it's mild when the local weather presenter says 'feeling fresher on Sunday' and the graphic is showing 10c... 

Describing 10c in December as "fresher"! Ye Gods! That word belongs in Summer after a hot and humid spell...not sodding December.

[Liam J]

3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Describing 10c in December as "fresher"! Ye Gods! That word belongs in Summer after a hot and humid spell...not sodding December.

Don't think I've ever heard ''fresher'' used during winter! As you say it's used during summer after a period of warmth breaks down...