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Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Well the impacts of El Nino on our climate in general are poorly understood, there's no concrete link that strong El Nino automatically means a mild UK winter. I'm just saying that background warming would exacerbate any mild signals.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, as far as I've read, El Nino winters in the UK are predictable only in terms of their unpredictability!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, as far as I've read, El Nino winters in the UK are predictable only in terms of their unpredictability!

Sounds reasonable to me. But, and I might well wrong here, the exceptional El Ninos of 1998 and this year could be outwith previous correlations??

PS: Given that the basal/mean oceanic and atmospheric temperatures are both on the rise...

Edited by Ed Stone
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted
2 hours ago, jethro said:

I know the world is warming but I'm not convinced it's having a large impact here, we've always had bonkers weather and will continue to do so, our location is the reason why. I've just had a quick flick through a page on the booty weather site (brilliant for historical weather stuff) and taking winter 1934/35 as an example, it was very mild, up until 2013/14 it ranked 9th warmest since 1659 - it was followed by widespread snow on 16th/17th MAY! Not just a few flakes, or the odd dusting, but from Scotland all the way down to Tiverton in Devon, proper snow cover - 11cm in Tiverton, 15cm in the Yorkshire Dales, 30cm in Leeds, even the Scilly Isles had falling snow.

A warming world is supposed to produce more extremes of weather but to my untrained eye, it seems we've always had contrary, often extreme weather here. Check out the historical stuff here   http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1900_1949.htm

I completely agree. There's no doubt we are damaging the planet, but what we are having are weather variations and not climate change. Personally I'm loving this autumn/winter season, it's different and exciting and allows you to do things you wouldn't normally do in winter.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I completely agree. There's no doubt we are damaging the planet, but what we are having are weather variations and not climate change. Personally I'm loving this autumn/winter season, it's different and exciting and allows you to do things you wouldn't normally do in winter.

And that's why I'm always hesitant to automatically blame climate change on individual events (such as the recent exceptional flooding in Cumbria).

Edited by Nick L
Correction in my wording
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I completely agree. There's no doubt we are damaging the planet, but what we are having are weather variations and not climate change. Personally I'm loving this autumn/winter season, it's different and exciting and allows you to do things you wouldn't normally do in winter.

Which is, Spike, quite true. Then again, the high-temperature records are far outstripping the cold ones? I've a feeling that our present run of ridiculously warm nights will far outweigh that single coldest July nighttime temperature?

I wonder what the next Super-Nino will do to our natural variation?

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March Blizzard Rising Star

March Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport
Posted
4 hours ago, Nick L said:

1685/86 saw a DJF CET of 6.5, 6.5 and 6. So it was pretty mild but not that mild. That's a similar average to 2013/14.

Is that not exceptionally mild? Especially when you consider at that time Jan and Feb probably averaged in the low 3's Celsius, or even less.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted
Just now, March Blizzard said:

Is that not exceptionally mild? Especially when you consider at that time Jan and Feb probably averaged in the low 3's Celsius, or even less.

You're right, fair point! A winter month with a CET of 6c wouldn't be that unusual for us, how things have changed.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted
Just now, March Blizzard said:

Yeah, do you remember those cold 6C winter months?!!  :cold:

It would feel positively Baltic compared to what we've got now!

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March Blizzard Rising Star

March Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport
Posted
4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It would feel positively Baltic compared to what we've got now!

To be honest, this is the coldest mildest spell on record for me. Like how others have mentioned, the complete lack of sunshine and persistent winds have ensured that the house never really warms up during the day. I work outdoors, so I'm not afraid of any weather really, but it has actually felt a bit chilly in my house on occasion. Its nuts.

I still cant get my head around this month being warmer than March 2012. Gotta love those big diurnal ranges!

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E100 Rookie

E100

Posted
Posted

I think I will write off January and February. Hoping for a cold March in line with previous el ninos.

I prefer extremes. -60c would be nice but won't happen. So unless there is a foot of snow on ground may as well be warm to save on firewood.

About mild rampers I dont really see the point. Its like me saying I want cold summer. Winter should be winter and summer should be summer.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

Went out at 6am today and it felt almost summer like!  Given it was clear as well made it all the more surprising.

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Thank god for December 2010 eh. Points West just had a reminisce of 2010 in there report on how mild this December is turning out to be, though when Ian did his forecast he did hint at a much colder end to the season!

 

 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

I've got the shutters shut but the front door open here in Limousin. A strong but warm wind outside, still 14c at 2015!

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interested & confused Rising Star

interested & confused

Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Over 18C please!
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
Posted
9 hours ago, Nick L said:

I don't like automatically blaming individual events on climate change, but it does make you wonder if this exceptional warmth would have occurred pre-industry. It's not a case of how above average we are, it's how above record warmth we're going to end up at this month - that's extraordinary.

Was the UK as warm during the Medieval warm period ?  (I know that wasn't a whole world warming )

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E100 Rookie

E100

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, interested & confused said:

Was the UK as warm during the Medieval warm period ?  (I know that wasn't a whole world warming )

I remember reading that grapes were grown in scandinavia during viking times. Then during napoleons time was a mini ice age and grapes in uk all died in one year

Edited by E100
update
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

It might be a stretch...but the only other Decembers I can recall being anywhere near as warm as this one looks like being were 1974 and 1988 - and both were followed by freakish coldness in Spring and relatively long, hot summers...Just a thought.:D

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted (edited)

A very good post here on English Vineyards and their relationship with climate.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/medieval-warmth-and-english-wine/

"Since 1977, a further 200 or so vineyards have opened (currently 400 and counting) and they cover a much more extensive area than the recorded medieval vineyards, extending out to Cornwall, and up to Lancashire and Yorkshire where the (currently) most northerly commercial vineyard sits. So with the sole exception of one ‘rather improbably’ located 12th Century Scottish vineyard (and strictly speaking that doesn’t count, it not being in England ‘n’ all…), English vineyards have almost certainly exceeded the extent of medieval cultivation. And I hear (from normally reliable sources) they are actually producing a pretty decent selection of white wines."

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

archives-2009-12-18-12-0.png

 

I jolly well wish this was tomorrows chart, Vendredi 18th decembre, same day/date as tomorrow, blaady different weather :wallbash:

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

archives-2009-12-18-12-0.png

 

I jolly well wish this was tomorrows chart, Vendredi 18th decembre, same day/date as tomorrow, blaady different weather :wallbash:

Yes, we were all excited this time 6 years ago!  Well, most of us were anyway.

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