Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You have me, Sir.  I was, of course, referring to the prospect of cold conditions.

well even that isnt a 'given', i dont expect a 47 or 63, but theres plenty of time for a briefer cold spell even if the winter as a whole is mild.

interestingly, Glacier Point has just posted a very detailed analysis over what might lie ahead next month, and whilst theres no 'big freeze' , a trend to colder conditions does look likely - IF  his thoughts are proven to be correct (and assuming predicted patterns dont change).

listen to the neutrals if you really want to know whats happening

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

46 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well even that isnt a 'given', i dont expect a 47 or 63, but theres plenty of time for a briefer cold spell even if the winter as a whole is mild.

interestingly, Glacier Point has just posted a very detailed analysis over what might lie ahead next month, and whilst theres no 'big freeze' , a trend to colder conditions does look likely - IF  his thoughts are proven to be correct (and assuming predicted patterns dont change).

listen to the neutrals if you really want to know whats happening

GP is one of those I listen to and greatly respect.  My problem is that I don't know enough about the stuff he studies to make an informed judgement.  I must admit, though, that, while it's fascinating from a purely academic standpoint, i do wonder how much influence it has on the "real world" in terms of whether the conditions that prevail pay any attention to the hypotheses.

Edited December 31, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[The PIT]

GP is pretty good and yup the technical side gives me a headache. Pretty good track record but as ever with nature things don't always do what is expected. If it did forecasting would easy.

GFS and ECM having pretty good agreement minor differences even when you got quite far out which is impressive. Looking more normal but still wet unfortunately.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Interesting post by Ian Fergusson just now in the Strat thread:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/?do=findComment&comment=3311345

Quote

Sorry for late response. In short, latest GloSea5 strat diagnostics (they run each day) are indicative of any SSW more likely occuring during Feb. This remains consistent with previous probabilistic outlining of 3-month expectations in contingency planning updates prepared by UKMO's Seasonal Team; i.e., higher likelihood of any colder weather being at tail-end of this winter and perhaps thus extending on into March. Of course, it must be re-stressed that the potential for any colder phases occurring during the rest of this winter won't necessarily be reliant on a SSW alone. There's presently no compelling signal in GloSea for any marked cold weather during the rest of January (it leans slightly milder than avg overall with a generally straight/zonal pattern throughout...this versus EC Monthly's slight NW'ly bias and more typical/avg temperatures). However, we will see what this evening's EC Monthly update yields (as it should now reduce any previous assimilation lag issues that might have snuck-in, whilst synthesising Frank's impressive poleward bout of WAA).

I'd love to think I'm wrong!

 

[Essex snowman]

ARE THE MODELS SHOWING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF COLD IN JANUARY OR DO I NEED TO KEEP ME SUNCREME ON 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

18 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

ARE THE MODELS SHOWING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF COLD IN JANUARY OR DO I NEED TO KEEP ME SUNCREME ON 

Sun cream?  Whereabouts in the UK are you LOL?!  Essex surely hasn't been that sunny, has it?

It appears from the experts that January may well continue wet and windy, though cooler than December, with February possibly containing the better chance of something properly cold.  My hunch, for what little it's worth, is that lowland England won't see much if any snow and will be predominantly mild, but that really is just a "feeling".

Edited December 31, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Essex snowman]

Thank u Chris may I wish everyone a happy new year keep up the good work all posters on here are doing a great job cheers all

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

GP is one of those I listen to and greatly respect.  My problem is that I don't know enough about the stuff he studies to make an informed judgement.  I must admit, though, that, while it's fascinating from a purely academic standpoint, i do wonder how much influence it has on the "real world" in terms of whether the conditions that prevail pay any attention to the hypotheses.

well hes been offered a top (met) job in america i believe, which is why he doesnt post much here. so he must be one of the most accurate LRF s there is. ive seen him be spot on over a 3 month period, ive seen him get it wrong too, so those of us who know much less is in good company!

NO ONE is a perfect weather predictor, no one can accurately interpret the available data and make accurate predictions all the time for several months in advance - but id imagine gp is one of the best, certainly out of those who has graced this forum .

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well hes been offered a top (met) job in america i believe, which is why he doesnt post much here. so he must be one of the most accurate LRF s there is. ive seen him be spot on over a 3 month period, ive seen him get it wrong too, so those of us who know much less is in good company!

NO ONE is a perfect weather predictor, no one can accurately interpret the available data and make accurate predictions all the time for several months in advance - but id imagine gp is one of the best, certainly out of those who has graced this forum .

Thanks for the info., Rob.  I didn't realise he was that high-up - I shall have to give his posts more weight in my attempts at understanding what is most likely in future (with the understanding that he's far from infalliable, of course).

[stewfox]

Seems from model discussion next 24 hrs we could see some decent ramp building, lets hope we prepare for the falls 'IF' it comes.

 

 

[Gael_Force]

Must be Hogmanay.... a 'see me' frenzy in the model thread... time to join in, have a good one all.

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Thanks for the info., Rob.  I didn't realise he was that high-up - I shall have to give his posts more weight in my attempts at understanding what is most likely in future (with the understanding that he's far from infalliable, of course).

i dont like sychophants, and theres a lot on here who hang on their chosen ones (no deliberate dig there) every word and take it as gospel. im trying not to be sychophantic here, nor overstate his worth. he is i believe possibly the most skilled poster here when it comes to interpreting all the available data.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont like sychophants, and theres a lot on here who hang on their chosen ones (no deliberate dig there) every word and take it as gospel. im trying not to be sychophantic here, nor overstate his worth. he is i believe possibly the most skilled poster here when it comes to interpreting all the available data.

That's why I trust your judgement!

[northwestsnow]

Well im always up for some shameless cold ramping but these outputs this evening are shocking for coldies.

Really dont know what else to say

[Bradowl]

3 hours ago, Essex snowman said:

ARE THE MODELS SHOWING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF COLD IN JANUARY OR DO I NEED TO KEEP ME SUNCREME ON 

Just packing mine now as I'm off to Costa's in morning. 21'C 70'f today. 

[Milhouse]

It appears that some folk are trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear. The London ensemble mean remains between average and a couple of degrees above for the entire run.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Just packing mine now as I'm off to Costa's in morning. 21'C 70'f today. 

You drink cold coffee?

[chionomaniac]

Well if I had a snowflake for every time........ I'd be sitting in a snow drift now....I'm not.

[Liam J]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well im always up for some shameless cold ramping but these outputs this evening are shocking for coldies.

Really dont know what else to say

UKMO was keeping the dream alive but the 12z has taken a backwards step, I imagine the next few frames wouldn't be pretty. Not looking good but it isn't over yet though as these charts are 6 days away

From this  To this 

 

[northwestsnow]

gfs trolling us now with a greeny high in fi ...

[heccygabber]

Lol they are still searching for cold in fi, I want cold and snow but they keep chasing and chasing it only for it to vanish and then they keep repeating the same over and over again....

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Setting phasers to pearl-clutching, with a side order of hyperbole

Merry New Year and all that! 

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont like sychophants, and theres a lot on here who hang on their chosen ones (no deliberate dig there) every word and take it as gospel. im trying not to be sychophantic here, nor overstate his worth. he is i believe possibly the most skilled poster here when it comes to interpreting all the available data.

I'm no sychophant!

Though I am a little a peed off with Dec

Edited December 31, 2015 by Timmytour

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'm no sychophant!

Though I am a little a peed off with Dec

Ant's no much better!

[Froze were the Days]

Well goodbye and good riddance December 2015! - you'll be remembered for some time but for all the wrong reasons. A mild winter month like I've never experienced before and for once more flooding the poor people in Cumbria/Yorkshire and Lancashire. So far experienced about 38/39 days now without a frost - when will winter begin?

Edited December 31, 2015 by Froze were the Days