Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[tinybill]

On 12/30/2015 at 10:25 PM, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

#gertrude? my prediction for storm 7,

that looking nasty  for the bottom half  of the country  if it comes  off

[ditch]

I'm old school and winter in my eyes started on the 21 December, so plenty of time for cold weather. I have never brought into the winter is measured from 1 December until the end of February and never will.  This winter is typical of the El Niño conditions, and not forgetting the cold pool of water in the North Atlantic . I personally  do not believe It is in anyway related to the climate change rubbish. The amosphere conditions are the true drivers of our weather and I hopeful of a change to colder weather as the season progresses. 

 

 

 

 

 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

But, we've yet to see any actual evidence that global warming and melting Arctic ice is resulting in colder or snowier winters in the UK!

However, we have definitely seen a marked trend towards wetter, windier and milder winters driven by the Jet Stream & Atlantic domination.

 

This is starting to annoy me now. Just because 2 winters recently have been wet, windy and mild doesn't make it an emerging trend - no more than 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 were indicative that winters in the UK were going to get colder across the board (also not forgetting 2012/2013 which was colder than average and saw numerous significant snowfall events for large areas of the country).

There is a plethora of absolute garbage being posted on all weather forums of late - is it because schools are off?

Edited January 1, 2016 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Gustywind said:

Ian Brown took a basically sound argument (that the UK climate is warming) but extrapolated it to the point where it became nonsense, by saying deep cold spells of weather were no longer possible at all, which was obviously ridiculous. This ignored the wide variability in weather and the background drivers that led to winters such as 62-63.

I'm definately not saying that, just that such spells are becoming less frequent and less cold in nature compared to the past.

Warm records/events by contrast seem to be becoming increasingly common.

fully agree obviously, and so does everyone I know/speak to, real life/internet etc, do generally agree with IB but he said christmas pudding started in '87, I disagree with that as 90's winters were amazing, loads of cold and snow, its 2000 when it began, yes 2 flukey seasons Dec '10 and Winter 2013, but obvious trend of more low pressure and less high pressure mild, average or cold

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

I agree.... I respect all the work behind it.. But it was going against everything else I could see at the time.. Be bold Steve and admit you got it wrong please..

i wouldnt hold your breath on that one mate! lol

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

He just killed the rest of winter; mind you, I did that a couple of weeks ago, got slated for it, and have yet to see any evidence that I was wrong...

yeah, because you cannot support your thoughts (which may well be proven correct) with any science, fergie does, and he hasnt written off the rest of winter, thats what others have read into it.

tbh, i agree with you, i think its highly unlikely (but not certain) that we will get a lengthy cold spell.  i wouldnt write off (just yet) chances of a colder quiet spell, maybe 7 - 10 days.

IF theres no sign of a cold evolution in another month, then id expect no cold at all.. but atm its just guessing. thats what people take exception to.

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm most disappointed in him, TBH - I used to think he was a damn good poster and I respected his views, but that was a ridiculous prediction.

"the king has got no clothes on" as one poster once said. i understand that people like cold and steve is a cold ramper extraordinaire - hence his popularity. but no matter how detailed and seemingly good case anyone makes , if its from a biased perspective then its more likely to be inaccurate as many previous such ramps have been (and it cuts both ways). 

the lesson being - realism over desire, that avoids mass disappointment.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

I don't want to single anyone out but can the mods please deal with this troll? I know I'm not the only one who is getting fed up of his nonsense. It's getting to be beyond a joke and makes using this forum extremely unpleasant.

I'm not sure that I agree with that, cheese...Since when did disagreeing with any particular point-of-view become the definition of a 'troll'?

So, if you'd both like to take wee step back??

Edited January 1, 2016 by Ed Stone

[Mokidugway]

Nice to see the season of good will to all men is alive and well in this thread :0....

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

It has nothing to do with disagreeing - it has everything to do with intentionally winding people up by posting the same thing again, and again, and again. You get people who approach this with an unbiased mind, and post an accurate reflection of what is being shown - and then you get individuals like the above who bleat on about 'm0dern winters' and how December 2015 is 'typical' of our climate - and if you think that isn't an attempt to annoy people then you're blind..

Jesus - this forum is going downhill fast. People like Ian Brown are the mild version of James Madden - constantly forecasting the same thing every year. The only difference is that Ian Brown is more likely to be right than James Madden because mild winters are more common than very cold winters - and that isn't just a recent thing.

Like I said: time to take a wee step back.

[Gustywind]

Cheese, my posts earlier were certainly not to wind people up or annoy cold lovers (of which I'm definately one), more to have a good whinge at the erratic but steady trend to reduced cold/snow in this country. Something which I understand to be the purpose of this thread. I grew up in the late 70s/80s so saw at least 1 decent snowfall pretty much every year until 87/88, usually more than 1. 

For info I'm no schoolkid - I'm a 42 year old company Director, with kids of my own. 

I agree with you that it's dangerous to base views on the last few winters, which have been wet and mild, however this is something the longer term statistics support - months are getting warmer, winters less cold than the past.

Look at the number of warmest month records broken since 2000, how many cold records over the same period (answer = 0).

[cheese]

13 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Cheese, my posts earlier were certainly not to wind people up or annoy cold lovers (of which I'm definately one), more to have a good whinge at the erratic but steady trend to reduced cold/snow in this country. Something which I understand to be the purpose of this thread. I grew up in the late 70s/80s so saw at least 1 decent snowfall pretty much every year until 87/88, usually more than 1. 

For info I'm no schoolkid - I'm a 42 year old company Director, with kids of my own. 

I agree with you that it's dangerous to base views on the last few winters, which have been wet and mild, however this is something the longer term statistics support - months are getting warmer, winters less cold than the past.

Look at the number of warmest month records broken since 2000, how many cold records over the same period (answer = 0).

Of course winters are less cold - any idiot could tell you that just by looking at the most recent climatic averages - but the insinuation that this kind of winter - not just exceptionally mild but exceptionally wet and unsettled - is going to become the new norm, is silly, and unhelpful to less knowledgeable members. I can't speak for whatever location you reside in but I have experienced more than just a few significant snow events since the turn of the century, and I will experience them again - that is 100% certain.

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Ed Stone
Ad hominems removed...

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Cheese, my posts earlier were certainly not to wind people up or annoy cold lovers (of which I'm definately one), more to have a good whinge at the erratic but steady trend to reduced cold/snow in this country. Something which I understand to be the purpose of this thread. I grew up in the late 70s/80s so saw at least 1 decent snowfall pretty much every year until 87/88, usually more than 1. 

For info I'm no schoolkid - I'm a 42 year old company Director, with kids of my own. 

I agree with you that it's dangerous to base views on the last few winters, which have been wet and mild, however this is something the longer term statistics support - months are getting warmer, winters less cold than the past.

Look at the number of warmest month records broken since 2000, how many cold records over the same period (answer = 0).

Zero number of cold records broken? Are you sure about that?

Ones memory can be a funny thing

[Gustywind]

Hi David,

Yep I'm sure, see earlier quote taken from Met Office site:

 

"temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659, reveals a similar trend – with seven out of a possible 17 records set since 2000 but no record cold periods."

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

52 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 

yeah, because you cannot support your thoughts (which may well be proven correct) with any science, fergie does, and he hasnt written off the rest of winter, thats what others have read into it.
 

Indeed, as someone who trained in science (albeit another field entirely) I agree that Ian's posts are based on contemporary thinking, research evidence and full analysis, whereas mine are based on recollections of previous events, hunches and inference; there's no comparison in terms of trustworthiness.  I just thought I'd (not entirely seriously) point-out that my combination of hunches and inference that lowland England would see no snow to speak of this winter has yet to be proven wrong, while a few much more learned member's predictions of easterlies and snow for much of eastern Britain had proven incorrect.

Regarding Ian's comments, I was overstating a bit to say that he'd killed this winter, but when he inferred that an SSW event in February seemed the only realistic path to cold, it seemed not that far remote to me.  Since then, he's posted again in the model thread, which has demonstrated to me that my initial understanding of the Glosea5 was inaccurate, so I'll happily retract that part of my post and apologise for any confusion or angst I might have caused.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

17 minutes ago, cheese said:

Of course winters are less cold - any idiot could tell you that just by looking at the most recent climatic averages - but the insinuation that this kind of winter - not just exceptionally mild but exceptionally wet and unsettled - is going to become the new norm, is silly, and unhelpful to less knowledgeable members. I can't speak for whatever location you reside in but I have experienced more than just a few significant snow events since the turn of the century, and I will experience them again - that is 100% certain.

 

Thing is, though, if we agree that our winters are less marked by cold and snowy conditions, we must surely ask what types of synoptics are replacing them?  Let's face it, in winter, the UK tends to have one of the following set-ups at any one time:

1.  Settled, anticyclonic weather (variable cloud amounts from full gloom to sunny and crisp)

2.  Atlantic-driven mild, wet and windy

3.  Cold, snowy weather from the quadrant between due north and due east 

What I'm arguing is that (3) is reducing in frequency, and is being more replaced by (2) than by anticyclonic, settled weather.

[Frost HoIIow]

Well as long as I can remember more often than not we've had a rubbish climate. Long cold Winters which the majority on here want are not guaranteed let's face it a 2 day toppler isn't what most want either, although right now I would take it. Nor are long hot Summers guaranteed. The problem is where we are located in Europe. At the start of the Atlantic onslaught and at the end of the Siberian express. So in the Winter we are much more likely to get wet and windy weather rather than cold and snowy weather. For guaranteed bitter cold for at least a week or so in the Winter ideally you have to live from east Germany/Poland eastwards and the further east the colder it usually gets. Generally most of lowland western Europe (UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Western & Central Germany) is crap for Winter weather because they are all influenced massively by the Atlantic and always have.

Edited January 1, 2016 by Medlock Vale

[DAVID SNOW]

42 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Hi David,

Yep I'm sure, see earlier quote taken from Met Office site:

 

"temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659, reveals a similar trend – with seven out of a possible 17 records set since 2000 but no record cold periods."

So records outside the cet zone don't count then?

Anyway in or out, I thought a number of cold records were broken in December 2010

[Gustywind]

Hi David, outside of monthly CET records, yes there has been a few cold records, but ten times as many warm records. I've pasted the article from the Met site below again for info:

"Since 2000, there have been 10 times as many hot records as cold records.

Taking into account the weighting, the period since 2000 accounts for two-thirds of all hot records in a national series from 1910, but only 3% of cold-records.

The longer Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659, reveals a similar trend – with seven out of a possible 17 records set since 2000 but no record cold periods.

The increase in hot records and decrease in cold records seen in recent decades is consistent with the long-term climate change signal. Seven of the warmest years in the UK series from 1910 have occurred since 2000."

[Methuselah]

That's the point, Gusty - the predominance of high-temperature records, both inwith and outwith the CET Zone is, to my mind, indisputable evidence of an overall warming trend?

Only the Black Knight, from Monty Python, would argue...

[Froze were the Days]

Also strange to me the complete lack of any high pressure in the Atlantic - maybe other than towards The Azores latitude, there's no amplification and just an endless prossession of depressions forming and in the case of this winter from low latitudes (at times). Back in the day (late 70's/80's) even in mildish winters you would by and large get respites between depressions with Pm air or some slight amplification as the LP moved west or east or even South West/North East obviously followed by another spell of mildish conditions but of late absolutley diddly squat and to a degree 2013/14 was the same - warmer seas the cause of this with such cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic ocean?

Anyway once we had this el-nino raging and experienced that very mild November followed half way through December I too like chrisbell had my doubts that we would see any distinctly cold weather this winter but also agree you can never write off a winter in December but this has all the signs that it could be worse than 2013/14 for any cold getting to these shores.

Looks like a miserable January coming up...

[DAVID SNOW]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's the point, Gusty - the predominance of high-temperature records, both inwith and outwith the CET Zone is, to my mind, indisputable evidence of an overall warming trend?

Only the Black Knight, from Monty Python, would argue...

The numbers don't lie Pete, I just commenting on 'zero' cold records broken, I may be still though!

[Jason M]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's the point, Gusty - the predominance of high-temperature records, both inwith and outwith the CET Zone is, to my mind, indisputable evidence of an overall warming trend?

Only the Black Knight, from Monty Python, would argue...

Alternatively we could always adopt the 'Dr Pepper principle' (aka what's the worst that can happen) advocated by the flat earth brigade and keep on pumping the gasses. After all the climate on Venus isn't so bad really 

[cyclonic happiness]

On 30/12/2015 at 9:29 AM, snow freak said:

This winter is really starting to annoy me now.  the thought of yet another mild soggy winter fills me with despair.  Yes I know there are those who keep saying it is only the beginning of winter but after 2 months of this dismal depressing atlantic weather and with no end in sight, it hardly fills you with hope.  I am sure that true to UK weather form we shall have the 'winter' weather come the spring....when we don't want it and it is no good to anyone.  Very fed up at the moment to say the least.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

I still think we're going to see some good action later in the month.  The cold air is gradually and ever so slowly, dropping down from the north.

The patterns of the hemisphere are unusual at the minute, which would make it hard for the models to grasp properly, that's why there's so much flip flopping.

I'm optimistic 

[jethro]

3 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

But, we've yet to see any actual evidence that global warming and melting Arctic ice is resulting in colder or snowier winters in the UK!

However, we have definitely seen a marked trend towards wetter, windier and milder winters driven by the Jet Stream & Atlantic domination.

 

That's exactly what I mean. There are studies a plenty to support both the view that we'll have colder, snowier winters or that we'll have wetter, windier, milder ones. They can't both be right. Depending upon what you want to believe, there's a science paper to back you up. Taking the melting Arctic....we've had cold, snowy winters that were assigned to being the result of less ice, we've had wet, mild ones, again assigned to less ice. The jet stream.....the same again. Last year and the year before everyone said it was raging across the Atlantic towards us because the USA was so cold, result of climate change, get used to it. This year, it's still raging towards us but the USA have been even more above us in the average temperature stakes....again the result of a warming climate.

 

I'm all for accepting we live in a warming world, the temperature records prove that, but is it responsible for every possible variation in the weather? We live on an island with the Atlantic one side, the North sea the other side, we have a maritime climate - we never have had cold, snowy winters year after year and we never will.

[cyclonic happiness]

6 minutes ago, jethro said:

That's exactly what I mean. There are studies a plenty to support both the view that we'll have colder, snowier winters or that we'll have wetter, windier, milder ones. They can't both be right. Depending upon what you want to believe, there's a science paper to back you up. Taking the melting Arctic....we've had cold, snowy winters that were assigned to being the result of less ice, we've had wet, mild ones, again assigned to less ice. The jet stream.....the same again. Last year and the year before everyone said it was raging across the Atlantic towards us because the USA was so cold, result of climate change, get used to it. This year, it's still raging towards us but the USA have been even more above us in the average temperature stakes....again the result of a warming climate.

 

I'm all for accepting we live in a warming world, the temperature records prove that, but is it responsible for every possible variation in the weather? We live on an island with the Atlantic one side, the North sea the other side, we have a maritime climate - we never have had cold, snowy winters year after year and we never will.

I'd be fine with global warming if we actually got nicer summers, but they have been awful the past few years.

The weather doesn't seem all that extreme in my locality, just the variation in weather is getting less and less.

We've not even had a damn frost this winter, when was the last time that the middle Midlands, didn't get a frost in December?   No doubt the spring will be cold (not bitterly, just craply), and the summer, and the autumn warm and the winter.....warm.

 

It's the lack of variety that has upset me the most :-(