Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[heccygabber]

Judging by the ecm or gfs charts there will be no snowfall in England this winter.

[The PIT]

11 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

Judging by the ecm or gfs charts there will be no snowfall in England this winter.

Well we don't have a full run for winter and I won't take anything beyond T120 as fact either. So time yet although away from Scotland you won't see any white stuff this week.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, heccygabber said:

Judging by the ecm or gfs charts there will be no snowfall in England this winter.

Amazing that these charts go that far out!!! Hold your horses there maybe a surprise or two in hand......Like February 

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, heccygabber said:

Judging by the ecm or gfs charts there will be no snowfall in England this winter.

We've still got the 2nd half of Jan and all of Feb yet ample time for change

Edited January 2, 2016 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

useless post from heccygabber! there will be loads, mainly high levels, but from mid Jan for northern England, hills, peaks etc

[Timmytour]

On 30 December 2015 at 7:10 PM, Timmytour said:

1955 is a good year to look at for those looking for a cold first 3 months  to follow a mild Nov and Dec......

Fascinating to look back at the model discussions around this time last year.  We know what happened, and yet it seems there was more optimism about getting something decent in the way of wintry then then there was this year  (especially for those down south)

While there have been outbreaks of optimism this year, it would seem that the outlook is worse.....yet I find that over the past few days I've become a lot more optimistic.  i have a little sense of things almost falling into place, failing back out of place but then coming back to try again, much as happened in Jan 2013. 


My prediction..... 4th Jan....GFS and ECM are going to start coming together to show us something special in FI and drive the excitement on here sky high..... after some dips the models will consolidate around 10th Jan with the weather itself starting to deliver about the 14th........it's coming!!!

 

GFS beginning to smell the coffee in FI.....I'll give ECM a coupleof days to catch up....probably while GFS drops it and then picks it up again

[heccygabber]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

useless post from heccygabber! there will be loads, mainly high levels, but from mid Jan for northern England, hills, peaks etc

Maybe you'll see a snowflake or two before march.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

We've still got the 2nd half of Jan and all of Feb yet ample time for change

And.....don't forget march can deliver too SS,as did march 2013.

[northwestsnow]

I see the prophet(s) of doom are busy this morning!!!

[carinthian]

Just read Nick F winter update blog. What depressing reading for you lot. This winter so far just goes on the same way for most , more rain, more wind , more Atlantic onslaught. Many places in Southern England are getting on towards 36 months without hardly registering a snowfall or even worst a air frost. Truly remarkable event. Fact , over here in Central Europe, now turning colder, the 12 month rainfall and snowfall drought continues. Crazy set up really, you lot cold dull summer, mild dull wet winter, us a hot record breaking summer followed by a drought Autumn and snowless winter so far and sunniest December since records began. As I type snow flurries falling for the first time for  5 weeks.

 C

[Polar Maritime]

20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just read Nick F winter update blog. What depressing reading for you lot. This winter so far just goes on the same way for most , more rain, more wind , more Atlantic onslaught. Many places in Southern England are getting on towards 36 months without hardly registering a snowfall or even worst a air frost. Truly remarkable event. Fact , over here in Central Europe, now turning colder, the 12 month rainfall and snowfall drought continues. Crazy set up really, you lot cold dull summer, mild dull wet winter, us a hot record breaking summer followed by a drought Autumn and snowless winter so far and sunniest December since records began. As I type snow flurries falling for the first time for  5 weeks. 

 C

Yes, At least your on the cool down now with more avg temps here for the next few weeks at least with the odd cold shot. More storms to come though and flooding inevitable.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes, At least your on the cool down now with more avg temps here for the next few weeks at least with the odd cold shot. More storms to come though and flooding inevitable.

Yep, one feels the flooding risk may extend a bit further south over the coming weeks PM as the jet slips every so slightly south, not enough south to bring the colder uppers in to play.

[northwestsnow]

13 hours ago, heccygabber said:

Judging by the ecm or gfs charts there will be no snowfall in England this winter.

I didnt realise ecm/gfs went out until late Feb????

[Timmytour]

Actually, the lack of sunshine sometimes gets overlooked down to the amount of rain we've had (or certain areas) and lack of cold.  It only really occured to me driving to work on New Year's Eve, a drive that entails going south on the A1 for a little while.   At this time of year, at the time of the morning I go, a bit of blue sky is hazardous as the sun is just at that angle where it comes into the windscreen and blinds.   The fact it did so on New Years Eve made me realise how little I had had to put up with it over the course of December and late November when normally there'd be quite a few occasions.

Small mercies I suppose.  Tiny ones in fact.

[mushymanrob]

well its not making for very good discussion - sensible discussion anyway. there no end it sight to the mobile wet unsettled westerly flow and unless you like talking about when the next rain band will arrive, the next storm, the next strong wind, or how wet itll be - then model watching will be pretty drab over the next two weeks at least.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

well its not making for very good discussion - sensible discussion anyway. there no end it sight to the mobile wet unsettled westerly flow and unless you like talking about when the next rain band will arrive, the next storm, the next strong wind, or how wet itll be - then model watching will be pretty drab over the next two weeks at least.

Hopefully pateience will be rewarded with a frigid Feb Mushy

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hopefully pateience will be rewarded with a frigid Feb Mushy

 

well if gp has got it right then there is hope ahead for those of you wanting something cold. this atlantic onslaught has gone on far longer then i expected tbh, and has to change at some point.

[Spikey M]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

this atlantic onslaught has gone on far longer then i expected tbh.

Yep, 3 winters to be precise!

[snowblizzard]

Apparently, CFS anomaly charts performed quite well for November & December 2015

They are indicating continuation of ridging to South of UK & low pressure to North West with jet stream powering across the UK right through January and into February!

I really hope they have got it wrong this time.

[daz_4]

Not going to lie. I'm really losing hope that we get some rain/snow before our dams go completely dry. 

[Sideways Snow]

14 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

ILet's hope these charts keep cropping up ever closer

I could look at that chart all day!

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Sideways Snow said:

I could look at that chart all day!

Please do it will be gone tmr lol.

[Bristawl Si]

Follow GP.

3 weeks to go to a 'flip'. 

Model runs will prob be indicating changes in a week's time or so for the 240 hour period plus.

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

 

well if gp has got it right then there is hope ahead for those of you wanting something cold. this atlantic onslaught has gone on far longer then i expected tbh, and has to change at some point.

TBH, isn't the 'Atlantic onslaught' pretty-much the UK's default?

[Timbo]

Happy new year to all.

The 15th to 20th January needs to put in the diary, this is the point that we will see major changes to sub zero temps and very snowy conditions.

i will explain more about this period over the next few days, but be prepared for some of the worst snowstorms on par with 87.