Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[markyo]

Little taste of winter at last today,love the frost and freshness of the morning walk,won't last though,better make the most of it. This winter will go down as probably one of the most miserable on record.

[northwestsnow]

Just watching 6z coming out, no words.

Apart from wet, windy and for the vast majority mild.

What a disgusting excuse for a winter this is.

[mushymanrob]

looking to me like theres a shift from a mean southwesterly flow, to more westerly, so atlantic systems and their attendant fronst will track across the uk instead of tracking across the northwest.

looking wet and windy for the southern half of the uk now, flooding likely too.

at least temps will be back to 'normal', .

[mushymanrob]

shouldnt steves post from yesterday be in here? it was after all a classic cold ramp!

[jethro]

With reference to the discussion on it's getting warmer, snow in the South will be increasingly difficult to find......

It's wonderful that we have CET records dating back hundreds of years, but they don't tell the full story. We could have an incredibly warm first two weeks of January coming up, followed by an incredibly cold second two weeks - net result in the CET records would be an average month. CET records should really be read in tandem with something like the information available here, to get the full picture.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

[Gustywind]

Agree to a point Jethro, statistics can be manipulated to prove pretty much any point, however I think most of us here, even the biggest cold rampers would have to admit that overall we are in a warming trend and that this by its very nature will gradually reduce cold and snowy spells over the long term. Given they weren't exactly common in the first place down south, that doesn't exactly bode well for snow fans in the south of the U.K.

 

[JOPRO]

Morning Ian!!!!!! What a load of tosh, we are the uk not Siberia, we seem to go through phases of mild winters and cold winters. We seem to be in a mild period at the mo, last winter was about average in my neck of the woods. This guff about low lying snow being confined to the history books is rubbish, as already mentioned we have been there and done this argument before. Does anyone have the link still to that article in the autumn of about 2008 writing off low level snow in the uk and that it was a thing of the past?? Think it was on the bcc news site .

[jethro]

 

18 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Agree to a point Jethro, statistics can be manipulated to prove pretty much any point, however I think most of us here, even the biggest cold rampers would have to admit that overall we are in a warming trend and that this by its very nature will gradually reduce cold and snowy spells over the long term. Given they weren't exactly common in the first place down south, that doesn't exactly bode well for snow fans in the south of the U.K.

 

I'm not sure that's true. And I'm not talking about statistics being manipulated, merely that to get the full picture when it comes to specifics like weather here, you have to look at the full picture, not just the edited highlights. Personally, I'm of the opinion that weather of a tiny part of the globe cannot be predicted by looking at global trends - it's that old macro/micro problem. This year, we're up against it because of the El Nino, everyone always knew that to be the case. But, history shows that El Nino years have a tendency to back load the cold potential of our winters here so people are naturally looking for cold now the first half of the winter is nearly over. There is cold in the NH, lots of it as usual. But, as usual, it's proving difficult to get it to flood over us - as was ever thus. The single biggest thing governing our winter here is the jet stream, over us, under us, straight across us, is what makes the difference between warm/cold and wet/dry. Warming world or cooling world, it will still dictate our weather and it's no where near as simple as saying a changing climate will create warming which will impact us.

Edited January 1, 2016 by jethro
To remove double quote.

[TSNWK]

Anyone seen Steve Murr since the rather brave call he made last night. Be nice to see his thoughts after this mornings runs! 

 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, jethro said:

 

I'm not sure that's true. And I'm not talking about statistics being manipulated, merely that to get the full picture when it comes to specifics like weather here, you have to look at the full picture, not just the edited highlights. Personally, I'm of the opinion that weather of a tiny part of the globe cannot be predicted by looking at global trends - it's that old macro/micro problem. This year, we're up against it because of the El Nino, everyone always knew that to be the case. But, history shows that El Nino years have a tendency to back load the cold potential of our winters here so people are naturally looking for cold now the first half of the winter is nearly over. There is cold in the NH, lots of it as usual. But, as usual, it's proving difficult to get it to flood over us - as was ever thus. The single biggest thing governing our winter here is the jet stream, over us, under us, straight across us, is what makes the difference between warm/cold and wet/dry. Warming world or cooling world, it will still dictate our weather and it's no where near as simple as saying a changing climate will create warming which will impact us.

I think you're right enough, Jethro...we could, hypothetically, have an entire year made up of two-week-long blocks of alternating severe heat and severe cold, but with every month coming in with a near-average CET...The details would be utterly lost in the background?

[draztik]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Anyone seen Steve Murr since the rather brave call he made last night. Be nice to see his thoughts after this mornings runs! 

 

Fear not, he will be back soon.

the garden path is long and winding, didn't you know.

Edited January 1, 2016 by draztik

[snowblizzard]

26 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Morning Ian!!!!!! What a load of tosh, we are the uk not Siberia, we seem to go through phases of mild winters and cold winters. We seem to be in a mild period at the mo, last winter was about average in my neck of the woods. This guff about low lying snow being confined to the history books is rubbish, as already mentioned we have been there and done this argument before. Does anyone have the link still to that article in the autumn of about 2008 writing off low level snow in the uk and that it was a thing of the past?? Think it was on the bcc news site .

Well, Met Office definitely suggesting that global warming is beginning to have a significant effect on the UK climate.

They expect severe cold & disruptive snow events to be much less frequent than over the past 50 years!

I think we are now seeing the real effects of climate change, especially in the Arctic where our cold air originates.

It's very sad and depressing for cold lovers in UK, but it's a fact of life I'm afraid.

Other parts of the world will suffer more serious and life threatening effects in terms of droughts, storms, flooding, etc. 

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Buzz]

37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

shouldnt steves post from yesterday be in here? it was after all a classic cold ramp!

I was just thinking the very same thing.

[TSNWK]

39 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

shouldnt steves post from yesterday be in here? it was after all a classic cold ramp!

I agree.... I respect all the work behind it.. But it was going against everything else I could see at the time.. Be bold Steve and admit you got it wrong please..

[jethro]

3 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Well, Met Office definitely suggesting that global warming is beginning to have a significant effect on the UK climate.

They expect severe cold & disruptive snow events to be much less frequent than over the past 50 years!

I think we are now seeing the real effects of climate change, especially in the Arctic where our cold air originates.

It's very sad and depressing for cold lovers in UK, but it's a fact of life I'm afraid.

Other parts of the world will suffer more serious and life threatening effects in terms of droughts, storms, flooding, etc. 

 

But the flip side of that argument is that there's quite a lot of scientific studies which show a warming world and a melting Arctic, could actually make our winters colder and snowier.

If it's cold and snow you're after, well sometimes we get lucky, sometimes we don't and I don't think that will ever change.

[jethro]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think you're right enough, Jethro...we could, hypothetically, have an entire year made up of two-week-long blocks of alternating severe heat and severe cold, but with every month coming in with a near-average CET...The details would be utterly lost in the background?

Exactly Pete, the details make all the difference.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I think Fergie just killed January....

He just killed the rest of winter; mind you, I did that a couple of weeks ago, got slated for it, and have yet to see any evidence that I was wrong...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

shouldnt steves post from yesterday be in here? it was after all a classic cold ramp!

I'm most disappointed in him, TBH - I used to think he was a damn good poster and I respected his views, but that was a ridiculous prediction.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

52 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Morning Ian!!!!!! What a load of tosh, we are the uk not Siberia, we seem to go through phases of mild winters and cold winters. We seem to be in a mild period at the mo, last winter was about average in my neck of the woods. This guff about low lying snow being confined to the history books is rubbish, as already mentioned we have been there and done this argument before. Does anyone have the link still to that article in the autumn of about 2008 writing off low level snow in the uk and that it was a thing of the past?? Think it was on the bcc news site .

As I've said before, they were correct in terms of the prediction; their mistake was in how soon it would transpire.

[Weather-history]

33 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

He just killed the rest of winter; mind you, I did that a couple of weeks ago, got slated for it, and have yet to see any evidence that I was wrong...

We'll find out on the 1st March.  

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

We'll find out on the 1st March.  

Indeed, and, as I've tried to make clear, I'm not an expert - it's more hunch and instinct than anything.

[Bristawl Si]

And to think it was only a couple of days ago some on here were writing about the demise of the PV. No such luck.

Re colder and poss snowier times now switch to last third of January as per GP's tentative prediction.

Meanwhile, we're likely to see a repeat of Jan 14 over next 10 days or so.

[Gustywind]

Ian Brown took a basically sound argument (that the UK climate is warming) but extrapolated it to the point where it became nonsense, by saying deep cold spells of weather were no longer possible at all, which was obviously ridiculous. This ignored the wide variability in weather and the background drivers that led to winters such as 62-63.

I'm definately not saying that, just that such spells are becoming less frequent and less cold in nature compared to the past.

Warm records/events by contrast seem to be becoming increasingly common.

[mountain shadow]

The MJO is forecast to move into a favourable phase 7 in about 12 days time and be fairly well amplified. The AO is going decently negative in the same timeframe with a neutral NAO.

I am interested to see whether the favourable MJO makes the slightest bit of difference to amplification in the Atlantic.

As the MJO has progressed through phases 2-6 the analogues have been about right, know doubt by the time the MJO gets to a more favourable 7 for us, the signal will be over ridden by something else.

Just seen that the Met Office have written off January for cold/snow for most, so it looks the apparently favourable MJO will mean nothing for us.

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

But the flip side of that argument is that there's quite a lot of scientific studies which show a warming world and a melting Arctic, could actually make our winters colder and snowier.

If it's cold and snow you're after, well sometimes we get lucky, sometimes we don't and I don't think that will ever change.

But, we've yet to see any actual evidence that global warming and melting Arctic ice is resulting in colder or snowier winters in the UK!

However, we have definitely seen a marked trend towards wetter, windier and milder winters driven by the Jet Stream & Atlantic domination.